THE EARLY PHOENIX

MIDDLE EAST EXCLUSIVE SITUATION REPORT

Israel-Hamas-Hezbollah-Iran-Yemen-Syria

Aug 12, 2024

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★ ISRAEL- HAMAS WAR SITUATION REPORT

Israeli Airstrike in Rafah Kills Over 100, U.S. Strengthens Military Presence

Israeli Strike on Rafah Shelter: IDF Claims Hamas Presence, Global Condemnation Mounts

An Israeli airstrike on August 10 in Gaza City’s Al-Tab’in School mosque reportedly killed over 100 civilians, sparking outrage. The IDF claimed the school was a Hamas command center, targeting militants, including a senior commander. Hamas and Palestinian activists disputed the claim, stating two of the 19 were killed earlier, with others being civilians or Hamas opponents. Euro-Med Human Rights Monitor reported finding no evidence of military activity, a claim that quickly went viral in Arabic media. Countries like Egypt, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia condemned the attack, accusing Israel of violating international law. Concurrently, the White House and the UN emphasized the urgent need for a ceasefire and the return of hostages. One day after the attack, reports emerged that Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar’s interest in a ceasefire, conveyed by Egyptian and Qatari mediators to Israel ahead of a crucial summit. On the same day, the IDF continued its evacuation operation in the area. One soldier was killed by a Hamas sniper bringing the total number of Israeli army members killed to 332. 

U.S. Deploys Military Assets, Transfers $3.5B Arms to Israel, Iran Faces Consequences

The U.S. has decisively bolstered its military presence in the Middle East in response to escalating threats from Iran and its proxies. Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III ordered the expedited deployment of the USS ABRAHAM LINCOLN Carrier Strike Group and F-35C fighter jets to the U.S. Central Command area, along with the USS THEODORE ROOSEVELT Carrier Strike Group and the USS Georgia guided missile submarine. This show of force aligns with the recent $3.5 billion arms transfer to Israel, part of a $14.5 billion military aid package approved by Congress. The message to Tehran is clear: any aggression will be met with decisive and overwhelming military response.

McGurk’s Gaza Strategy Criticized for Weakening Israel’s Security Measures

Despite efforts to stabilize Gaza, pushing the Palestinian Authority (PA) to control Rafah Border Crossing remains disconnected from Gaza’s realities. The PA, long unable to influence Gaza, lacks the strength to counter Hamas’s dominance. U.S. Middle East envoy Brett McGurk’s strategy risks Israel’s security by positioning a weak entity in a vital role. McGurk, now a controversial figure in U.S. diplomacy, faces criticism for this approach, with both regional actors and American commentators questioning his methods. Critics argue McGurk’s broader Middle East efforts, including ceasefire negotiations, prioritize diplomatic appearances over practical security outcomes. His actions have strained relations with key partners, raising concerns about U.S. interests and Israel’s security in the region.

Netanyahu Leads Over Gantz as Judicial Reforms Heighten Divisions

Benjamin Netanyahu has regained the lead over Benny Gantz in the Israeli Prime Minister race, with 42% support compared to Gantz’s 40%. The Likud party, holding 22 Knesset seats, is gaining ground as Gantz’s National Unity party loses support. Netanyahu’s push to appoint Israel’s next Civil Service Commissioner, despite legal objections, is increasing tensions with Attorney-General Gali Baharav-Miara. Justice Minister Yariv Levin’s determination to resume controversial judicial reforms further deepens divisions within the government. Yair Golan, a former IDF deputy chief of staff, questions Israel’s democracy under Netanyahu and advocates for a two-state solution, emphasizing international cooperation and security. Golan’s influence has grown since his heroism during the October 7 Hamas attack, which has revived support for Israel’s liberal camp. These developments highlight the increasing instability and public dissatisfaction in Israel’s political landscape.

Sharp Increase in Drug Use and Addiction Behavior in Israel After Hamas Attack  

Following the unprecedented Hamas attack on October 7, 2024, drug use and addiction behaviors in Israel have surged significantly, according to health professionals. Dr. Shaul Lev-Ran, founder of the Israeli Center for Addiction and Mental Health, reported a sharp rise in the consumption of addictive substances, including prescription drugs, illegal narcotics, and alcohol. A study conducted by his team revealed a 25% increase in addiction-related behaviors among Israelis exposed to the events of October 7. The crisis has particularly affected survivors and displaced individuals, with a notable rise in the use of sleep aids and painkillers. Dr. Lev-Ran warned that the situation could escalate into a widespread addiction epidemic in Israel.

King Abdullah II Affirms Jordan Will Not Be a Battleground

King Abdullah II of Jordan declared that Jordan will not become a battleground or endanger its citizens. In a meeting with U.S. Congress assistants, he stressed the need for de-escalation to prevent a regional conflict, citing the ongoing instability due to the war in Gaza. The King also condemned attacks by extremist settlers on Palestinians and violations in Jerusalem, advocating for a two-state solution as the path to regional security. Jordan’s Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi reiterated that Jordan will not tolerate airspace violations, as tensions rise following recent assassinations linked to Israel and Iran.

Israel Halts Jordanian Imports Citing Safety, Jordan Dismisses Concerns 

On August 11, 2024, Israel halted the import of vegetables and fruits from Jordan, citing concerns over cholera bacteria detected in the Yarmouk River and agricultural products. This decision came shortly after Jordan stopped tomato exports to Israel, a move that led to increased prices. While Jordanian officials have dismissed Israel’s safety concerns as unfounded, they are now considering halting olive exports to Israel in response. The trade tensions between the two countries continue to escalate as both sides await further developments.

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★ ISRAEL-HEZBOLLAH WAR

Hezbollah Threatens Israel with Unprecedented Retaliation

Hezbollah Drone Swarm Over Israel Sparks Fires and Airstrikes

Hezbollah launched a drone swarm into Israel from Lebanon on August 11, 2024, following the IDF’s targeted killing of senior commander Samer Mahmoud al-Haj. The drones caused fires and damage, prompting Israel to intercept one drone and conduct retaliatory airstrikes on Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon. In response to escalating threats, the IDF doubled its UAV presence over Lebanon and intensified GPS jamming near Eilat and along the northern border, affecting navigation apps.

Rocket Victim Saves Six Lives Through Organ Donation

Michael Samara, who tragically died from injuries sustained during a failed Iron Dome interception of Hezbollah’s strikes on August 6, 2024, has saved six lives through the donation of his organs. Samara, a 27-year-old student who had recently returned to Israel from the Czech Republic, was critically injured on August 6. His family decided to donate his organs, resulting in life-saving transplants for patients ranging from a seven-month-old baby to a 65-year-old woman. The medical efforts took place across multiple hospitals, with Samara’s heart, lungs, kidneys, and liver providing new hope to those in need.

Hezbollah’s Deputy Chief Vows Painful Retaliatory Strike Against Israel

Hezbollah’s Deputy Chief, Sheikh Ali Daamoush,declared a decisive and painful retaliatory strike against Israel, emphasizing that there will be no retreat regardless of the consequences. Daamoush criticized the U.S., U.K., and Germany for arming Israel, holding them responsible for ongoing conflicts. He condemned Israel’s recent assassinations and stressed that Hezbollah’s response would go beyond psychological warfare, hinting at an unconventional and powerful military response. He reaffirmed that Hezbollah’s leadership will determine the timing and nature of the retaliation based on battlefield conditions and opportunities.

Hezbollah Intensifies Rocket Attacks on Israel, Escalating Tensions Further

Hezbollah continued launching rockets at Israeli cities and settlements, igniting multiple fires and raising international fears of a direct war. Early Monday, at least 30 rockets were fired from Lebanon towards Nahariya and other Galilee areas, with Israel’s air defenses intercepting some. Hezbollah claimed responsibility for shelling Israel’s 146th Division’s new command center near Nahariya with Katyusha rockets, responding to Israeli strikes on southern Lebanese villages. The group also targeted Israeli surveillance equipment in Al-Mutalla, reportedly destroying it. Israeli forces are battling several fires in western Galilee triggered by the rocket attacks, as tensions escalate.

Hezbollah Evacuates Beirut Headquarters, Preparing Major Attack on Israel

Hezbollah evacuated its Beirut headquarters on Monday, moving personnel and infrastructure to an undisclosed location, signaling preparation for an anticipated attack on Israel. Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri stated that a significant Hezbollah strike against Israel is imminent, describing it as inevitable and possibly coordinated with Iran. Israeli intelligence reports suggest that Iran plans a joint assault with Hezbollah within days, potentially before scheduled Gaza ceasefire talks. The anticipated attack may involve missile and drone strikes targeting Israel’s densely populated central region, potentially surpassing previous Iranian-led operations. Israeli political and defense institutions are considering preemptive actions to thwart the impending threat.

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★ IRAN

Iran, China, Russia Alliance Strengthens Heightening Global Tensions

Iran to Supply Russia with Short-Range Ballistic Missiles 

Intelligence sources have revealed that Iran is preparing to deliver Fath-360 short-range ballistic missiles to Russia, marking a significant escalation in Tehran’s military support for Moscow’s war in Ukraine. Russian military personnel are currently in Iran receiving training on the Fath-360 system, which launches missiles with a range of 120 kilometers and a 150 kg warhead. The U.S. and NATO allies have warned of severe repercussions if Iran proceeds with the transfer. While Iran has denied selling missiles for the Ukraine conflict, it has a history of military cooperation with Russia, including the sale of drones. The missile deliveries, if confirmed, would put further pressure on Ukraine’s air defenses and deepen the military ties between Iran and Russia.

China Backs Iran, Condemns Assassination as Threat to Regional Stability

China’s Foreign Ministry confirmed support for Iran, emphasizing sovereignty, security, and dignity in a recent statement. Minister Wang Yi, in conversation with Iranian Charge d’Affaires Ali Bagheri Kani, condemned the assassination, highlighting its violation of Iran’s sovereignty and regional stability threats. This alignment signals China’s strategic stance amidst rising tensions after the deaths of Hamas leader Haniyeh and Hezbollah commander Fouad Shukr in Beirut. In response, Israel has heightened its security readiness, anticipating possible retaliatory actions from Iran and Lebanese Hezbollah.

Iran Strengthens Naval and Electronic Warfare Capabilities 

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has announced a significant upgrade to its naval forces, including the addition of advanced cruise missiles with new specifications, highly explosive warheads, and radar-evading capabilities. The IRGC has also enhanced its radar systems and electronic warfare capabilities, alongside acquiring the latest military equipment to counter maritime threats.

Iran’s Military Power Surges, Houthis Strengthen Under Biden Administration

During the Trump administration, Iran’s military capabilities grew by 5-10%, and the Houthis’ capabilities increased by 15-20%. Under the Biden administration, Iran’s capabilities surged by 30-40%, while the Houthis’ grew significantly by 70-80%. The evidence indicates that Iran’s military growth during the Trump administration was constrained, with a modest increase of 5-10%, largely due to severe sanctions that led to a nearly 28% cut in overall defense spending and a 17% reduction for the IRGC and Quds Force. These economic pressures significantly limited Iran’s ability to support proxies like the Houthis. In contrast, under the Biden administration, Iran’s military capabilities expanded by 30-40%, with the Houthis’ growing by 70-80%, fueled by increased Iranian support and enhanced operational improvements. This stark contrast highlights the escalating threat posed by Iran and the Houthis in the region, emphasizing the need for heightened international vigilance to address these growing security challenges.

Iranian Arms Shipments to Houthis Highlighted in DIA Report

The Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) has released a report titled “Seized At Sea: Iranian Weapons Smuggled to the Houthis,” which outlines the capture of weapons bound for Yemen’s Houthi rebels, underscoring their Iranian origins. The report includes visual evidence confirming that the seized arms, intercepted on January 11 and 28, match known Iranian systems. This documentation supports allegations of Iran’s continued involvement in arming the Houthis, facilitating numerous attacks on commercial shipping across the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden since 2015. Over 20 smuggling attempts by Iran have been thwarted, yielding ballistic and cruise missiles, anti-tank guided missiles, and drones. The DIA’s findings aim to elevate awareness about Iran’s destabilizing actions in the region, emphasizing significant implications for U.S. defense and national security interests.

Iran’s Threat Prompts IDF to Recall Soldiers from Georgia, Azerbaijan

In response to escalating threats from Iran, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have ordered all off-duty soldiers in Georgia and Azerbaijan to return to Israel immediately. This directive follows the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, which Iran and Hamas attribute to Israeli involvement. With heightened concerns of Iranian retaliatory strikes, particularly in regions adjacent to Iran like Azerbaijan, the IDF is taking proactive measures to safeguard Israeli interests and ensure the security of its personnel in these vulnerable locations.

Iranian President Advocates for JCPOA Revival Amid Regional Tensions

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, in a phone conversation with European Council President Charles Michel, expressed optimism about reviving the JCPOA, emphasizing the need for mutual confidence and obligations fulfillment. He indicated that meeting these conditions could open doors to further cooperation beyond the nuclear agreement. 

Zarif Resigns After 11 Days Over Cabinet Appointment Disputes

Mohammad Javad Zarif resigned from his position as Vice President for Strategic Affairs in Iran due to his dissatisfaction with the cabinet selection process overseen by newly elected President Masoud Pezeshkian. Zarif was particularly disheartened that the new cabinet did not reflect the inclusive reforms he had envisioned, specifically the underrepresentation of women, youth, and ethnic minorities. Additionally, he expressed frustration that many of his recommended candidates, who were chosen by expert committees, were not selected, indicating a divergence from the promised reforms and a continuation of conservative dominance in the cabinet. This situation left him feeling that he could not effectively fulfill his role or achieve the reforms he had pledged to support, leading to his decision to step down and return to academia​. 

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★ YEMEN

Biden Administration’s Middle East Foreign Policies Require Strategic Overhaul

Biden Administration Reverses Policy, Reengages Saudi Forces In War Against Houthis

The Biden administration recently lifted a significant weapons ban, reestablishing military cooperation with Saudi Arabia to conduct joint strikes against the Houthis. This policy reversal marks an end to the prior stance initiated right after Biden took office in 2020, which ceased weapons sales to the Kingdom. The initial ban led to various effects: Saudi Arabia reconciled with Iran and reduced its focus on internal security threats, facilitating over 170 Houthi attacks on vessels in the Red Sea. Moreover, it prompted Saudi Arabia to expand its diplomatic outreach towards the East, moving away from its traditional U.S. alliances. The administration’s flawed Middle East policies, including this ban, have resulted in widespread regional instability and loss of life, with critical implications for countries like Israel, Iran, Yemen, Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon.

Yemen Floods Devastate Regions, Require $4.8 Million in Urgent Aid

Severe flooding in Yemen on August 6 and 7, 2024, has devastated Al Hudaydah, Taiz, and Hajjah governorates, claiming 39 lives. Thirty of these deaths occurred in Al Hudaydah, where 7000 families were forced to evacuate. The floodwaters have isolated many communities, cutting off vital roads and trapping residents. Over 28,000 individuals are affected, with 4,112 families urgently needing aid. The United Nations estimates $4.8 million is required to support relief efforts, but funding shortages are hampering progress. The situation remains dire as more rain is expected, compounding the disaster. The Saudi King Salman Humanitarian Aid and Relief Center recently provided emergency assistance to those affected by floods and heavy rains in Yemen’s Hajjah, Hodeidah, and Taiz provinces. The relief effort included 5,535 food baskets, 1,580 tents, and 1,356 shelter kits, benefiting 46,825 individuals. 

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★ IRAQ

Assad’s Syrian Airline Hijacks Iraq’s Aviation Revenue,ISIS Deputy Governor of Euphrates Captured

Iraq’s Breach of the Caesar Act BackFires as Assad Airline Steals Iraq’s Aviation Revenue

After violating the Caesar Act with the Iraq-Syria Air Transport Agreement signed on July 18, 2023, Iraq faces economic fallout. This agreement allows Syrian airlines to operate in Iraq, siphoning revenue from Iraq’s national carrier and bolstering Assad’s regime. Saudi Arabia defended its May 2024 shipment of airplane parts to Syria, claiming they were essential for Hajj. However, Assad’s regime redirected these parts to enhance aviation operations in Iraq, further entrenching its influence and undermining Iraq’s aviation revenue. This support extends Assad’s airline operations, worsening economic impacts in Iraq. Iraqi MP Amer Abdul Jabbar criticizes the agreement for devastating Iraq’s aviation industry and stability.

Top ISIS Leader Abu Safiya al-Iraqi Captured in Precision Anbar Operation

Iraqi military intelligence captured Abu Safiya al-Iraqi, a high-ranking ISIS leader, in Rummana, west of Baghdad. He previously served as Deputy Governor of the Euphrates State within ISIS, which encompassed northeastern Syria and western Iraq. This region included major cities like Raqqa in Syria and parts of Anbar province in Iraq, strategically vital due to their location along the Euphrates River. ISIS merged these areas into a single administrative region to consolidate control and impose their extremist governance, facilitating movement and supply routes. The operation is a success in Iraq’s broader efforts to dismantle remaining ISIS networks. Al-Iraqi now faces charges under Iraq’s Anti-Terrorism Law, reflecting the government’s commitment to eradicating terrorist elements. This arrest marks a critical blow to ISIS remnants, though their power transfer methods suggest continued resilience.

Iraq Discusses Expanding NATO Partnership in Military Training

Iraq’s Chief of Staff, General Abdul Amir Rashid Yarallah, met NATO Mission Commander Lieutenant General Lukas Siewierski on Sunday. NATO and Iraqi officials discussed expanding their partnership, with a focus on military training and cooperation to enhance the army’s capabilities. NATO’s non-combat mission, present in Iraq since 2018, supports the country in reforming its security structures and institutions. The mission primarily provides advisory support to Iraqi military and security institutions, strengthening Iraq’s defense capabilities.

Kirkuk Governor Appointed After Prolonged Deadlock

Rêwaz Tahir was appointed as governor of Kirkuk following extensive political stalemates, marking a procedural advance for the local government. However, the decision remains controversial, facing objections and potential legal challenges, particularly from the Arab and Turkmen communities who fear marginalization under Kurdish-led governance. These tensions reflect long-standing ethnic disputes over power-sharing in Kirkuk, a region critical due to its diverse composition and strategic importance. The Kurdish population views Kirkuk as integral to their autonomy, while Arabs and Turkmen, supported by different political groups, resist this dominance. This discord highlights the deep-rooted ethnic and political cleavages in the area. These groups have vowed to pursue legal action, citing concerns over exclusion and potential unrest. Meanwhile, the government has increased security in Kirkuk to manage the situation. 

Iraq’s Oil Exports to U.S. Drop as Biden Boosts Drilling

Last week, Iraq’s oil exports to the United States saw a reduction, as reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The daily average stood at 143,000 barrels, marking a decrease of 35,000 from the previous week. This decline is part of a broader trend where U.S. crude oil imports from nine key countries dropped to an average of 4.198 million barrels daily, down by 1.356 million. The shift largely results from increased domestic oil production in the U.S., especially with new drilling approvals in Texas and North Dakota by the Biden administration in March 2024. Despite the decrease in imports, Canada, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, Ecuador, and Mexico remained the leading oil suppliers to the U.S. last week. 

Significant Increase in Rainfall Boosts Iraq’s Wheat Production in 2023

Iraq’s wheat production increased by 21% this year despite significant losses, thanks to exceptional rainfall and modern irrigation techniques. By expanding agriculture into desert areas and utilizing groundwater irrigation, the country has effectively offset the loss of river-irrigated farmland. Over the last century, Iraq’s average temperature has risen by about 0.7°C, with more frequent extreme heat events occurring. Rainfall in southeast Iraq shows a slight downward trend, impacting water management and agricultural planning significantly.

Iraq Acquires 14 H225M Helicopters from France 

Iraq’s Army Aviation Command signed a contract with France in early August 2024 to acquire 14 H225M Caracal helicopters from Airbus Helicopters. This acquisition is part of Iraq’s effort to modernize its fleet by replacing the older Russian Mi-8/Mi-17 helicopters. The deal includes 12 newly built H225M helicopters and two refurbished H225 helicopters. The H225M is a long-range tactical military transport helicopter designed for multi-role missions, including troop transport, logistics, and medical evacuation. This acquisition aims to replace the aging Russian Mi-8/Mi-17 fleet currently in use by the Iraqi military. 

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★ SYRIA

U.S. Strikes IRGC, SDF Kills 18 on Ground, Israel Strikes Daraa, Turkiye Refuses to Leave, and Putin Instructs Assad to Distance from Iran

U.S.-Led Coalition Drone Strike Hits IRGC in Eastern Syria

On Sunday, a U.S.-led international coalition drone strike targeted Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) militia members in eastern Deir ez-Zor, Syria, resulting in six fatalities and 16 injuries. The attack focused on a military vehicle on the Al-Dweir road near Al-Bukamal, close to the Syria-Iraq border. This strike follows a previous attack by an Iran-backed Iraqi militia on Kharab al-Jir Airbase in eastern Al-Hasakah on Friday night, which involved two drones and led to injuries and a fire. On Saturday, Reuters confirmed that several U.S. and coalition military personnel were injured in Syria and relocated for further evaluation. A U.S. official reported another drone attack on American forces at Rumelan Landing Zone, with no immediate injuries.

Syrian Democratic Forces Attack Regime Positions in Deir Ezzor, Killing 18

The Deir Ezzor Military Council, part of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), conducted an operation targeting three Syrian regime positions in Deir Ezzor, resulting in the deaths of 18 regime soldiers and injuries to others. The attack was in retaliation for recent regime artillery strikes that killed civilians and SDF fighters in eastern Deir Ezzor. The Council also raided three villages used as launch points for regime attacks, seizing weapons and military equipment. The SDF warned that further regime aggression would be met with continued defensive actions. The regime has not yet officially responded.

Israeli Strikes Target Syrian Military Site in Daraa Countryside

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported multiple explosions near the occupied Syrian Golan Heights on Sunday. These explosions were caused by Israeli rocket attacks on a Syrian military site at Tel al-Jabiyah in western Daraa countryside. The strikes resulted in plumes of smoke rising from the targeted area, with ambulances rushing to the scene.

Turkey Stresses Syria Withdrawal Tied to New Constitution, Elections

Turkey’s Defense Minister Yaşar Güler emphasized that Ankara will only discuss coordination on withdrawing from Syria after a new constitution is agreed upon, elections are held, and borders are secured. He mentioned potential ministerial-level talks between Turkey and Syria to normalize relations if conditions are favorable. Additionally, Güler highlighted ongoing negotiations with the U.S. over acquiring F-35 fighter jets. He also described joint anti-terrorism efforts with Iraq as a turning point, stressing that the PKK poses a threat to Iraq’s role in the regional Development Road project.

Religious Tourism in Syria: Economic Boost or Iranian Influence?

Religious tourism in Syria, especially to Shia sites, has become a crucial revenue stream for Bashar al-Assad’s regime. Syrian Minister of Tourism Mohammad Rami Martini recently opened a new hotel in Sayyidah Zainab, a suburb of Damascus with many Iranian-owned establishments. This area is significant for Iran, which promotes religious sites with strategic intent. In late 2022, Syria removed visa requirements for Iraqis to encourage religious tourism. Iran’s influence in Syria is evident in the promotion of Shia sites, using religious tourism as a vehicle for ideological and political expansion. Before the 2011 conflict, Syria was a popular destination for Christian pilgrims, but the war diminished this tourism. In contrast, Shia religious tourism has remained steady, benefiting the regime financially and supporting Iran’s strategic goals. This tourism provides critical foreign currency and fosters closer ties between Syria and Iran.

Putin Pressures Assad to Distance from Iran, Engage with Turkey 

Russian President Vladimir Putin has urged Bashar al-Assad to distance Syria from Iran to prevent further escalation in the region. Putin’s warning comes due to concerns over Russian influence, especially with ongoing tensions in Ukraine. A Russian security delegation met with Hezbollah leaders to assess future actions following threats to Israel. Putin also tasked Sergey Shoigu with ensuring Syria’s neutrality, emphasizing the risks of an open war involving Syria. Putin advised Assad to engage with Turkey and drop preconditions for normalizing relations, aiming to prevent renewed conflict while addressing the Kurdish issue. Russia’s concerns are heightened by recent Iranian-backed tribal attacks in eastern Syria, prompting intervention to restore stability.

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