SYRIA

December 4, 2024

Syrian Rebels Deal Crushing Blow to Assad and Iran

After the U.S.-brokered truce in Lebanon on November 26, 2024, Prime Minister Netanyahu reiterated Israel’s resolve to block weapons transfers from Syria to Lebanon, warning that “Assad must understand he is playing with fire.” Within a day of the ceasefire, Syria became the new focal point in the escalating Israel-Iran conflict, further straining Iran’s Axis of Resistance. Turkish-backed Syrian opposition armed forces launched a surprise offensive, dubbed Operation Deterrence of Aggression, aimed at Aleppo, Syria’s economic capital. Israel concurrently continued airstrikes in Syria, disrupting Iranian arms transfers to Hezbollah and signaling Damascus to reconsider its allegiances. The regime, having dismissed earlier threats as mere bluster, was caught unprepared. Distracted by smuggling operations and beset by low morale, its military units swiftly disintegrated under the offensive.

As regime units began to break, their chaotic retreats were intensified by media reports of Assad’s departure to Moscow, inciting panic within the regime even before Aleppo’s fall. Watch this video showing mass escapes of Iranian and Assad forces after the factions advanced towards Aleppo. 

The opposition armed groups stated their attack was in response to “the escalation of strikes in recent months targeting civilians by Russian and Syrian air forces in southern Idlib,” as well as ensuring the return of 100,000 displaced people to their cities and villages controlled by the Iranian militias. 

Many Western and pro-regime media outlets have described the opposition offensive as an HTS operation, but several sources, including Russian officials, estimated that Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) contributed only 10% of the total fighters involved in the opposition offensive. What has made this opposition operation different from previous iterations is that HTS–which in past campaigns often spent more energy fighting other opposition factions than fighting the regime–has maintained cooperation with other opposition forces rather than trying to conquer them. This newfound cohesion has strengthened the opposition’s operational capabilities. Other opposition forces participating in the ongoing campaign include the National Front, Commander Jamil al-Saleh, and some Free Syrian Army factions. 

Military analysts suggest that Syrian armed opposition groups have capitalized upon Israel’s intense strikes on Iranian and Hezbollah military positions, which significantly weakened the “Axis of Resistance” in terms of weaponry and personnel across Syria. 

The opposition operation commenced on two fronts: the western Aleppo countryside and the eastern Idlib countryside. In western Aleppo, opposition forces seized approximately 20 positions, including villages, towns, and military points, with the capture of the Assad regime’s 46th Regiment marking a critical blow to regime defenses just 10 kilometers from Aleppo. 

Concurrently, in eastern Idlib, opposition forces launched an offensive targeting Saraqib, a strategic city on the Damascus-Aleppo highway M5. By taking Saraqib, the opposition intended to prevent the Assad regime from sending reinforcements from Hama to Aleppo.

Within the first 12 hours of the offensive, opposition forces captured 35 towns and villages across western Aleppo and took control of key sections of the M5 highway—a lifeline for Assad’s regime effectively severing a vital weapons supply route between Damascus and Aleppo. Regime media acknowledged the loss, advising its audience to use alternative routes to Damascus. 

During those hours, the opposition seized more than 60 armored vehicles and artillery as well as extensive missile and ammunition stockpiles. On the first night of fighting, the combined death toll on both sides exceeded 200 soldiers along with the opposition capture of dozens of regime personnel.  Watch this viral video from Syria showing a captured Assad fighter trembling with fear as opposition forces calmly offer him water and dates.

Heavy clashes in Aleppo suburbs forced Russian forces to evacuate several outposts in Tel Rifat north of Aleppo in Idlib’s countryside. Analysts observed the conspicuous absence of Russian air support for the regime defenders, while Assad’s forces deployed their own long-dormant aircraft after years of inactivity to negligible effect.

Opposition forces, using Shaheen drones—Ukrainian-designed and reportedly locally assembled—executed a precise strike on the Scientific Research Center near Aleppo’s eastern entry, held by Iranian forces. The attack killed Iranian Brigadier General Kioumars Pourhashemi along with three high-ranking officers, marking a significant blow to Tehran’s influence in the conflict. 

Watch the first video of the precise attack conducted using Shaheen Drones. Pourhashemi was a senior lieutenant of Qasem Soleimani, the former IRGC Quds Force commander, who was killed during a U.S. operation under the Trump administration in January 2020.

The Al-Shaheen drone stands out for its experimental approach to utilizing modern drones, including kamikaze models with advanced engine systems like their new turbojet-powered device. Turbojet-powered kamikaze drones are considered rare and innovative due to the high technological demands and complexity of their production. Unlike traditional drones powered by propeller engines, turbojet-powered models can carry more advanced payloads and achieve higher speeds, thus making them harder to intercept by conventional defense systems like surface-to-air missiles and radar. This speed allows the drones to strike targets with minimal reaction time from the enemy, and it also expands the range of missions, including rapid strikes on distant and well-defended targets. Shahin Brigades successfully used these “suicide drones” to disable two helicopters at Nayrab Airbase in eastern Aleppo, helping the opposition to seize control of the base. 

One major development in the opposition offensive has been the capture of the airbases the Assad regime and its allies have been using to control the northern territories. The Turkish-led Syrian National Army (SNA) captured Kuweires Military Airport on Sunday, severing the PKK/YPG logistics line between Tel Rifaat and Manbij. Opposition forces, including factions backed by Turkiye, seized control of three military airports, including Aleppo International Airport, achieving the most significant territorial gain since the conflict began in 2011.

Following intense clashes, Turkish-backed factions also seized Tel Rifaat, after which the opposition urged SDF fighters to withdraw safely to northeastern Syria and called on regime officers to defect, offering them safe passage to northern territories. 

In the first 24 hours of the offensive, the opposition secured approximately 400 square kilometers, solidifying their hold over the western countryside. The opposition expanded its reach on the second day, seizing 34 Iranian and Hezbollah defensive positions around Aleppo city and effectively encircling the city.

To encourage regime and Hizballah defections, the opposition took a note from the Israeli Defense Forces’ playbook, dropping notes from the air on Assad’s troops in the Aleppo sector and offering free passage to those who defected from the service in the Syrian army. 

As opposition troops advanced on Aleppo, the Russians retaliated against civilian targets, launching airstrikes that killed over 35 civilians and injured 50+ in Idlib and Aleppo. In Idlib, the Russian and regime strikes hit residential areas, markets, and hospitals. In Aleppo, an airstrike on Aleppo University Hospital killed 12, including medical staff, and injured 23, causing severe damage to five White Helmets facilities. 

With Aleppo in opposition hands, on the third day of fighting the opposition forces launched a coordinated attack near Jabal Al-Zawiya, capturing Hezbollah fighters and prompting Russian troops to retreat from the area. 

Opposition troops recaptured the key town of Maarat Al-Numan astride the M5 highway and quickly advanced south toward Khan Shaykhun with virtually no regime resistance. By moving so quickly into Hama province, the opposition was effectively executing a pincer movement against regime forces in rural Hama from multiple directions. The rapid opposition success sparked unexpected uprisings by the local population in Rastan and Talbiseh near Homs, further loosening regime control over checkpoints. 

With the regime forces in flight, the rebel forces continued south into Hama, capturing Qalaat al-Madiq after intense clashes with regime forces. The fortress at Qalaat al-Madiq commands a strategic vantage over the Ghab Plain, controlling supply routes and surrounding areas. Rebel forces also seized key northern towns, including Taybat al-Imam, Halfaya, Soran, and Mhardeh, tightening the net around Hama city and placing the rebel lines less than 8 kilometers from the city. Regime reinforcements raced to the Hama area to try to reestablish a defensive perimeter around the city.

Despite regime-inflicted propaganda about the opposition forces’ alleged attacks on minorities in Aleppo, Bishop Ephrem Maalouli of Aleppo reassured Christians worldwide of the community’s safety following opposition factions’ takeover of the city. In a message, Maalouli emphasized that prayers in Aleppo’s churches will continue under current circumstances and urged calm among residents. 

The collapse of Assad’s forces in Aleppo within 48 hours has left Russia stunned, raising critical questions about the Syrian army’s capabilities and internal stability. Dr. Mahmoud Al-Afandi, a Russian affairs expert, noted Russia’s view that the sudden withdrawal of Assad’s army, security forces, and intelligence units without a fight could be an indication of internal dissent or mutiny within Assad’s military. Russia, lacking ground presence beyond military police and reliant on aerial control via the S-400 system, faces challenges in supporting Syria’s fragmented forces. The rapid collapse disrupted longstanding de-escalation agreements and highlighted the Syrian army’s inability to defend vast territories, factors that Afandi said would prompt Russia to push for the reorganization of Assad’s forces before Moscow would aid any regime counter-offensives. Meanwhile, Assad appears to be hoping for reinforcements from Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces.

As the Russians contemplated how to respond to the offensive, Julani’s Salvation Government addressed Russia, seeking partnership and mutual respect, and reassured Iraq that the revolution posed no regional threat. 

Domestically, opposition statements sought to downplay the population’s fears by emphasizing the protection of civilian property, fostering unity among all Syrians, and safeguarding diversity, particularly for Kurdish and Shiite communities. The rebels also stressed securing foreign diplomats in Aleppo, reflecting a shift toward inclusive rhetoric alongside military advances.

On Wednesday, December 4, 2024, rebels announced the capture of a Russian-made Pantsir-S1 anti-aircraft missile battery from the Assad regime’s Brigade 25 headquarters in Hama. This advanced system integrates surface-to-air missiles and anti-aircraft artillery, designed to counter aircraft, drones, and precision-guided munitions. Its distinct radar panels and missile launch tubes highlight its capability.

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TURKIYE Confronts Russia and Iran in Syria

As the Turkish-backed rebels swept through northern Syria, an alarmed Russia and Iran urged Türkiye to negotiate over Syria’s escalating conflict and support the Syrian government to restore stability and constitutional order. Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova accused the U.S. and Britain of fueling chaos in Syria through armed groups, targeting the Assad regime’s sovereignty. Meanwhile, Moscow sacked General Sergei Kisel, the commander of Russian forces in Syria whose task had been to shore up the Assad regime’s stability. Russian military sources speculate that Moscow may dispatch Colonel-General Alexander Chaiko to replace Kisel. Chaiko was previously Russia’s lead commander in Syria and more recently has commanded in Ukraine.  

Turkish officials have publicly denied a Turkish role in the opposition offensive, but Turkiye’s support to the rebel forces has been clear, with the Turks opening borders to Idlib to allow the rebels to move freely toward Aleppo equipped with advanced Turkish military gear. The “Sultan Murad Division,” backed by Turkish intelligence, has joined the fight, with Turkish heavy vehicles equipped with structures aimed to protect against drones.

At the political level, President Erdoğan said, “We have long warned that the spiral of violence in the Middle East could also affect Syria. Recent events have confirmed and registered Turkiye’s rightness.” Erdoğan stated that improved security in Syria would facilitate voluntary refugee returns. Analysts suggest that Ankara is using the operation to pressure Assad’s regime while managing anti-refugee popular sentiment within Turkiye.

The rebel offensive has caused a sharp escalation in Türkiye-Iran tensions. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi visited Ankara and blamed the U.S. and Israel for the unrest. Aragchi received a direct rebuke from his counterpart, Hakan Fidan, who placed full responsibility for Syria’s deteriorating situation on the Syrian regime and urged Damascus to engage with the opposition and reach a settlement of the conflict. Aragchi said the foreign ministers of Iran, Turkey, and Russia are likely to meet in the framework of the Astana process on December 7 and 8 to discuss Syria on the sidelines of the Doha Forum. If this meeting takes place, it will happen under far different conditions from the previous rounds of Astana talks, with Ankara holding a far stronger hand this time.