Editor’s Note: This edition covers critical developments from July 4–7, 2025. Publication timing reflects operational requirements for delivering the region’s most decisive intelligence to Washington. Please refer to the disclaimer below.
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★ ISRAEL
1. Trump Presses Netanyahu Privately on 60-Day Truce, Gaza Endgame
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu met President Trump at a closed White House dinner to finalize a 60-day Gaza ceasefire and hostage deal, with Trump pressing for an immediate halt to fighting and future guarantees to prevent renewed conflict. Netanyahu met with Secretary of State Rubio and US envoy Witkoff. According to the White House, “the utmost priority for the president is to end the war in Gaza and to return all of the hostages.” Arabic media report Netanyahu brought demands on Iran and Syria, while rejecting permanent ceasefire terms favored by Hamas. No joint press appearance was held. U.S. Envoy Steve Witkoff will travel to Doha to continue mediation as indirect talks remain stalled. While Washington pushes for a transition plan excluding Hamas, Netanyahu opposes any role for the Palestinian Authority, complicating a deal on Gaza’s future governance. No formal agreement was announced. Meanwhile, a former senior Hamas commander admitted to the BBC that over 80% of Hamas’s infrastructure has collapsed, with leadership decimated and armed factions operating uncontrollably. He warned that Hamas is urgently seeking a ceasefire to suppress escalating internal chaos and restore its fractured authority in Gaza.
2. Hebron Clans Reject Israeli-Backed Emirate Separation Proposal
Major Palestinian clans in Hebron rejected Israeli Economy Minister Nir Barkat’s emirate separation initiative July 6, blocking Tel Aviv’s attempt to fragment West Bank governance through tribal proxy. The Jabari family formally disavowed Jerusalem resident Wadih al-Jabari after he submitted a letter pledging Hebron’s withdrawal from Palestinian Authority control and recognition of Israel as Jewish state. All Hebron tribal leadership issued condemnation statements within hours, describing al-Jabari as unknown to local clans and holding Israeli citizenship. Barkat hosted al-Jabari twelve times since February 2025, coordinating a proposal for an autonomous emirate joining Abraham Accords and allowing 50,000 Palestinian workers into Israel. Four unnamed associates co-signed the letter targeting 700,000 Hebron residents. The initiative implements Professor Mordechai Kedar’s 2012 plan to divide Palestinian territories into eight tribal emirates, beginning with Hebron due to its economic importance and religious significance to settlers. Palestinian security services are now investigating additional participants. Israeli military and Shin Bet declined comment, suggesting security concerns about bypassing established Palestinian governance structures.
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★ YEMEN
3. Israeli Jets Strike Houthi Ports, Disrupting Iranian Arms
Israel struck three Yemeni ports and one power station using twenty jets and sixty bombs. The coordinated operation targeted Hodeidah, Ras Isa, and Salif ports plus Ras Qantib power station to disrupt Iranian weapons transfers to Houthis. Israeli forces also hit the hijacked vessel “Galaxy Leader” during the campaign. The strikes followed multiple Houthi missile attacks against Israeli territory and fresh assaults on international shipping near Hodeidah. Houthis retaliated hours later with two missiles targeting Israel’s West Bank and Dead Sea regions. The operation significantly damaged Houthi power infrastructure despite group claims of repelling the attack. Defense Minister Katz warned of decisive responses to future provocations. The strikes come after a failed assassination attempt on Houthi military chief al-Ghamari disrupted their operations before recent missile resumptions against Israeli targets.
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★ IRAN
4. Iran’s Boast of Hidden Missile Power Contradicted by Intelligence
IRGC General Ali Fazli claimed Iran had used only 20–30 percent of its military capacity and hinted at hidden missile cities, touting the unpredictability of the Sejjil missile and threatening forceful response to aggression. He described Iran’s military posture as the strongest in 45 years while denying nuclear ambitions. Iranian propaganda outlets simultaneously circulated unverified reports of imminent Chinese J-35 stealth fighter deliveries, claiming advanced capabilities against Israeli F-35s. Iran’s actual procurement efforts focus on Chinese J-10C fighters rather than advanced J-35 stealth aircraft, reflecting budget constraints and Chinese export limitations. U.S. and Israeli intelligence assessments sharply contradict these assertions. Israeli intelligence infiltrated Iran’s nuclear and missile programs, uncovering a far broader weapons infrastructure than previously known. Shared documents with the U.S. and U.K. revealed secret sites across Tehran, Isfahan, and Natanz. Israel struck key facilities, including centrifuge plants, power infrastructure, and research labs. Iran had advanced to near-weapon capability, producing up to 2,500 ballistic missiles by war’s start.
5. Iranian Crown Prince Claims Military Defection Channel Reaches 20,000
Exiled Iranian Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi claimed 20,000 military and security personnel joined secure channels targeting regime overthrow following Israel-Iran ceasefire. Pahlavi launched the “National Collaboration campaign” June 29, targeting Iranian armed forces seeking to defect from Islamic Republic. Anonymous X account claiming Mossad ties simultaneously reported hundreds of disillusioned IRGC officers contacted Israeli intelligence, though officials have not confirmed account authenticity. Pahlavi announced plans for a 100-day transitional government if the regime falls at an upcoming opposition summit. Opposition factions selected him as transitional leader in February 2025. Polling shows 80 percent Iranian preference over current leadership. Claims follow Israeli strikes eliminating top Iranian commanders and exposing regime vulnerabilities to domestic opposition.
6. Iran’s Supreme Leader Emerges After 12-Day War Absence
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei made his first public appearance since Iran’s 12-day conflict with Israel, participating in a religious ceremony at Tehran’s Imam Khomeini Mosque Saturday. The 86-year-old supreme leader had remained out of public view since June 11, two days before Israeli surprise airstrikes initiated the conflict. State television showed Khamenei greeting worshippers during Imam Hussein martyrdom commemoration, with crowds chanting support. His previous communication was a pre-recorded video message last week.
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★ SYRIA
7. U.S. Removes Hayat Tahrir al-Sham From Terror List
U.S. rescinded Foreign Terrorist Organization designation of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham effective July 8, following Secretary Rubio’s June 23 order published in Federal Register. The decision follows Trump’s June 30 executive order lifting Syria sanctions and rare phone coordination between Rubio and Syrian Foreign Minister Assad Shibani July 4. Attorney General and Treasury Secretary consulted on delisting the former al-Qaeda branch now governing Damascus. The move aims to reintegrate Syria into the global financial system.
8. Pentagon Allocates $130 Million to Support SDF and Free Syrian Army Against ISIS
The U.S. Defense Department has allocated $130 million in its 2026 budget to support the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the Free Syrian Army in combating ISIS. The funds will cover training, equipment, and salaries, with the Pentagon warning that reduced support risks ISIS resurgence, endangering regional and U.S. interests. Recent ISIS activity, including a church bombing in Damascus, has renewed security concerns.
9. Israeli Forces Continue Iranian Network Elimination in Syria
Israeli special forces arrested a second Iranian Quds Force cell in Syria July 7, targeting operatives preparing attacks on northern Israeli settlements. Alexandroni Brigade and Unit 504 interrogators captured multiple Iranian-directed terrorists in Tel Khudne area during an overnight raid. Earlier July 4 helicopter assault on Yaafour village near Damascus involved three aircraft searching former Republican Guard facilities for five hours. IDF Mountain Brigade destroyed Syrian military positions on Mount Hermon summit July 7, eliminating threat platforms overlooking Israeli positions. Separate armored incursion targeted Rakhlah village near Lebanese border. Operations follow previous week’s arrest of an Iranian cell in southern Syrian Bedouin villages, where IDF seized weapons and grenades.
10. Malaysia Dismantles Network Funding ISIS Operations in Syria
Malaysian police dismantled a network that recruited Bangladeshi workers to funnel money to ISIS in Syria. Since April, 36 individuals were arrested; five face terrorism charges, and 15 were deported. The network used social media and digital platforms to raise and transfer funds supporting ISIS activities in Syria, with further arrests expected as investigations continue.
11. Syrian Leader Leverages US Opening, Pursues UAE Investment
Syrian President Ahmad Al Sharaa traveled to the UAE for second official visit since January. The visit builds on the April meeting where UAE President Sheikh Mohamed pledged reconstruction support and stressed Syria’s stability as vital to regional security. The timing follows recent UK diplomatic restoration and ongoing U.S. efforts to lift UN sanctions on Syrian leadership. Al-Sharaa continues regional outreach securing Gulf investment for Syria’s estimated $500 billion reconstruction needs. UAE previously vowed to “spare no effort” in providing assistance, positioning Emirates as a key partner in Syria’s post-Assad transition. The visit reinforces UAE’s pragmatic engagement with Islamist-led government despite historical opposition to such movements.
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★ TÜRKIYE
12. Erdoğan’s Third Opposition Sweep Targets CHP Mayoral Leadership Nationwide
Thirteen Republican People’s Party (CHP) mayors, including Istanbul’s Ekrem İmamoğlu and municipal leaders from Adana, Adiyaman, and Antalya, were arrested on extortion charges as part of Türkiye’s third major wave of detentions targeting the opposition since October. The arrests follow the July 1 sweep in Izmir and earlier operations in Istanbul, bringing the total number of detained CHP affiliates into the hundreds. Prosecutors claim the charges are criminal, but CHP officials accuse President Erdoğan of weaponizing the judiciary to dismantle opposition leadership ahead of national elections. The detentions sparked mass protests, comparisons to late-stage Mubarak-era Egypt, and rising EU condemnation. Several municipalities now face frozen accounts, intensifying concerns over political suppression and democratic backsliding. The Erdoğan government denies political motives, but the sustained pressure has galvanized opposition ranks and reshaped Türkiye’s pre-election landscape.
13. Five Turkish Soldiers Killed by Gas in Iraq Cave; U.S. Offers Condolences
Five Turkish soldiers died and fourteen were injured from methane gas inhalation while searching a cave in northern Iraq for the remains of a comrade killed in 2022. The cave is in an area where Turkish forces operate against the PKK, which recently announced its dissolution following a message from founder Abdullah Öcalan. The U.S. Ambassador to Ankara, Thomas Barrack expressed condolences on behalf of President Trump, affirming solidarity with Türkiye, the Turkish Armed Forces, and their shared commitment to regional security.
14. Kurdistan Workers’ Party Leaders Begin Disarmament in Peace Move
Kurdistan Workers’ Party leaders will publicly destroy weapons in Sulaymaniyah after Abdullah Öcalan’s February call to disband. Around 20 members, including senior figures, will symbolically burn arms after July 10. Öcalan’s first video message since 1999 is expected. Türkiye may follow with constitutional talks on Kurdish identity after its parliament’s summer recess.
15. Türkiye Showcases Air Power in Multinational Anatolian Eagle 2025 Drill
Türkiye showcased its aerial capabilities during the Anatolian Eagle 2025 exercise at Konya’s 3rd Main Jet Base, joined by NATO allies and regional partners. The drill featured prewar crisis scenarios, cruise missile threat responses, and—marking a first—UAVs conducting direct bombing missions, highlighting Türkiye’s expanding role in multinational tactical aviation training. The Turkish President Erdogan, however, continues negotiating with President Trump to rejoin the F-35 program, aiming to modernize Türkiye’s aging air fleet.
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★ LEBANON
16. U.S. Envoy Barrack Pressures Lebanon to Disarm Hezbollah
U.S. Special Envoy for Syria and Lebanon Thomas Barrack stated in Beirut that President Trump believes Lebanon is the key to regional peace and warned that Hezbollah’s weapons remain the central obstacle. Barrack confirmed receipt of Lebanon’s official response to a U.S. proposal for implementing security arrangements aimed at Hezbollah’s disarmament. He described the Lebanese reply as within range of U.S. expectations and called for urgent internal dialogue to finalize a practical solution. During meetings with President Joseph Aoun, Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, and Speaker Nabih Berri, Barrack emphasized that the U.S. will not impose outcomes but expects Lebanese actors to lead the process. Sources in the Lebanese presidency said the talks were positive and included ideas for a comprehensive settlement. The visit coincided with intensified Israeli airstrikes targeting Hezbollah positions across Lebanon, killing one and injuring six. Observers view the timing as coordinated pressure from the U.S. and Israel, signaling that if Lebanon fails to act, Israel will resume unilateral disarmament operations.
17. Hezbollah Refuses Disarmament Amid U.S. Deal, Vows Resistance
Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem rejected U.S.-brokered calls to disarm in return for Israeli withdrawal and reconstruction funds, vowing continued resistance until Israeli “aggression” ends. Speaking in Beirut, Qassem affirmed the group’s refusal to surrender weapons, citing ongoing Israeli strikes and occupation. Lebanese authorities prepare to respond to U.S. envoy Tom Barrack’s disarmament proposal during his Monday visit.
18. Israel Launches Nine Airstrikes Across Northern, Eastern, and Southern Lebanon
Israeli warplanes carried out nine airstrikes across Lebanon on Sunday, targeting areas in Baalbek, Akkar, Iqlim al-Tuffah, and Tyre. The strikes hit suspected Hezbollah weapons facilities and rocket launch sites. The attacks violated the 2023 ceasefire, which mandated Hezbollah’s withdrawal south of the Litani River. Intense Israeli aerial activity accompanied the bombardment across Lebanese airspace.
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★ EGYPT
19. Islamist Group In Egypt Threatens Attacks
The Muslim Brotherhood’s armed wing Hasm has issued a new propaganda video threatening attacks on Egyptian prisons to free Islamist detainees, marking the group’s return after years of security crackdowns. The video shows desert training with rifles and rocket launchers. Hasm operates under Turkish-based Brotherhood figure Yahya Moussa, who coordinates with Brotherhood factions including the “General Office” and “Change Current” networks. Previously designated by the U.S. as a terrorist organization, Hasm conducted assassination attempts against Egypt’s former Grand Mufti and killed six officers in a 2016 Giza bombing.
20. Egypt Seeks 22% Increase of Gas Imports from Israel
Egypt plans to raise Israeli gas imports by 22% this July, targeting 1.1 billion cubic feet daily to offset June’s supply halt. Israeli gas now covers 12% of Egypt’s demand, with supplies routed via both the East Mediterranean and Arab Gas pipelines.
21. Egypt Condemns Ethiopian Dam Completion as International Law Violation
Egypt rejected Ethiopia’s GERD completion declaration and September inauguration plan as illegal under international law. Cairo condemned Addis Ababa’s unilateral Nile actions after thirteen years of failed trilateral negotiations with Sudan. Egypt cited Ethiopia’s lack of political will for binding agreements on Africa’s largest hydroelectric project, which controls Blue Nile flow supplying 80 percent of Egypt’s water resources and threatens agricultural and urban supplies serving 104 million citizens.
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★ IRAQ
22. Drone Downed Near Erbil Airport Hosting US-Led Coalition Forces
A drone loaded with explosives was intercepted near Erbil airport in Iraqi Kurdistan on Thursday night, with no casualties or damage reported. The airport houses US-led coalition troops. U.S. officials confirmed the explosion occurred outside the base and is under investigation. Similar attacks occurred recently in Kirkuk and Baiji, highlighting Iraq’s persistent vulnerability to drone threats.
23. U.S. Sanctions Iranian Oil Smuggling Network and Hezbollah-Linked Bank
The U.S. imposed sanctions on Iraqi businessman Salim Ahmed Said’s network smuggling Iranian oil as Iraqi, and on Lebanon’s Hezbollah-linked Al-Qard Al-Hassan bank. Said’s UAE-based VS Tankers blended and sold oil using forged documents, aiding Iran and the IRGC. Sanctions also targeted vessels and officials tied to covert oil sales and Hezbollah’s financial operations, as U.S.-Israel pressure on Tehran and its proxies persists.
24. Iraqi Militias Reject Najaf and Sadr’s Calls to Disarm
Iraqi militias rejected disarmament calls from the Najaf religious authority and Muqtada al-Sadr, denouncing them as capitulation to “Zionist-American crime.” Statements by Kataib Hezbollah and Sayyid al-Shuhada leaders drew backlash from Sadrists and clerics after recent drone attacks in Kurdistan. The controversy reignited tensions over rogue weapons and demands to centralize arms under state control.
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★ Disclaimer: The Early Phoenix is a digest of various news sources compiled by the Early Phoenix team and edited by Rania Kisar. The items are curated, concise summaries of news items hyperlinked within each story. The items and summaries presented do not necessarily represent the views of the American Center for Levant Studies.
