JULY 29, 2025| 14:45 EST|21:45 LEVANT
★ ISRAEL
UK Acknowledges Balfour Injustice, Vows Palestine Recognition at UN
England’s Foreign Minister gave what the Arabic media described as a statement equal in historical weight as that of Balfour. During the Two-State Solution Summit in New York at the UN, Foreign Secretary David Lammy declared that Britain, bearing “the weight of history,” will recognize the State of Palestine when the General Assembly convenes in September—unless Israel halts its military campaign in Gaza, addresses the humanitarian collapse, and commits to lasting peace based on a two-state framework. In his most consequential remarks, Lammy quoted the Balfour Declaration’s unfulfilled pledge “that nothing shall be done to prejudice the civil and religious rights of the Palestinian people,” calling its failure a “historical injustice that continues to this day.” He affirmed Britain’s responsibility to correct this legacy, condemning Netanyahu’s rejection of a two-state solution as “morally and strategically wrong.” Lammy outlined concrete UK steps: restoring UNRWA funding, sanctioning violent settlers and Israeli ministers, and coordinating with Jordan on aid drops and evacuation of wounded children. He demanded Hamas disarm, release hostages, and forfeit governance of Gaza, while declaring that peace and Israel’s security are not incompatible with Palestinian statehood. Citing five UN resolutions—181, 242, 446, 1515, 2334—he urged that these no longer remain “just numbers on paper.” Lammy ended by pledging Britain’s full and historic role in resolving—not managing—a conflict the world can no longer tolerate.
Israel’s Diplomatic Crisis Deepens As Allies Issue Bans, Consider Sanctions
The Netherlands banned Israeli ministers Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir for inciting settler violence and summoned Israel’s ambassador over its conduct in Gaza. Germany, France, and the UK are weighing a joint diplomatic visit to demand de-escalation and full aid access. Undeterred, Smotrich today called for reestablishing an Israeli civilian presence in Gaza, declaring it “an inseparable part of the Land of Israel.” He rejected a return to Gush Katif in favor of broader settlement expansion, opposed hostage negotiations with Hamas, and demanded full Israeli sovereignty over the West Bank alongside an end to all aid flows that could reach Hamas. Prime Minister Netanyahu, reportedly seeking to retain Smotrich in his coalition, plans to propose the launch of Gaza’s annexation phase. The move, conditioned on Hamas rejecting a ceasefire, would start with internal buffer zones and expand northward. Netanyahu claims the Trump administration previously approved the plan, despite Smotrich opposing increased Gaza aid. Meanwhile, Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar rejected growing global pressure over the Gaza war, calling it a distorted campaign that strengthens Hamas and fuels antisemitism. Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett warned Israel is collapsing under Netanyahu’s leadership, citing coalition recklessness and legal backlash. He called for urgent political change to protect national security.
Israeli Strikes Escalate in Gaza, Causing Dozens of Civilian Deaths
The Israeli military carried out heavy air and ground assaults across Gaza over the past 24 hours, striking Hamas targets in Khan Younis, Gaza City, and Shejaiya, according to the IDF, as reported by The Times of Israel. Separately, Hamas’s civil defense said at least 30 civilians—including 14 women and 12 children—were killed in Israeli strikes on homes in Nuseirat camp; Al-Awda Hospital confirmed receiving the bodies. The IDF has not commented. Both reports appeared in The Times of Israel, as Gaza’s war death toll surpasses 60,000 per Hamas-run health authorities.
Israel Fears Losing Regional Air Superiority Over U.S. F-35 Deals
Israel raised concerns about possible U.S. F-35 sales to Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and Egypt, warning it could erode its strategic edge. While no deals are finalized, officials confirm airpower shifts could destabilize regional balance. Israel currently holds a qualitative edge due to advanced local systems.
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★ GULF STATES & YEMEN
Saudi Arabia Announces Final Document Of Two-State Conference
Saudi FM Prince Faisal bin Farhan announced adoption of the two-state conference’s final document, outlining political, security, economic, and legal frameworks. Palestine confirmed plans for a UN-supervised interim mission with regional support. UK Prime Minister Starmer said Britain will recognize Palestine in September unless Israel changes course. Gulf states pledged to lift the siege and allow full aid access. Multiple countries now plan recognition. Normalization with Israel remains frozen pending a Gaza ceasefire and Palestinian progress. The conference ended as global monitors confirmed famine is underway in Gaza.
Houthis Confirm Holding 10 Crew From Sunk Greek Ship
Houthis confirmed detaining 10 crew from the Greek-operated ship Eternity C, which they sank in the Red Sea. Nine are Filipino and reportedly unharmed. The vessel was allegedly bound for Israel’s Eilat Port. Houthis vow continued attacks on Israel-linked ships, as Greece dispatches a salvage team.
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★ IRAQ
Iraqi PM Struggles Controlling Militias, Denies Role in Clashes
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani defended the Popular Mobilization Forces law as key to arms control and reaffirmed state authority over all armed actors. He denied direct PMF involvement in the July 27 Dora clashes that killed two and wounded 12, but U.S. officials blamed Kata’ib Hezbollah, which warned of expelling U.S. forces “at any cost” and condemned the arrests of 14 members. Iraqi authorities arrested Eyad Kadhim Ali, former Karkh Agriculture Department director, for allegedly triggering the armed attack that killed two people. In response, Representative Joe Wilson vowed to block U.S. aid to Iraq while Iran-backed groups remain active. Sudani labeled recent drone attacks on Kurdistan oil sites “terrorist acts” and pledged joint action with Kurdish and coalition forces. Meanwhile, Kurdish officials blamed PMF-linked factions. The State Department warned Iraq cannot stabilize under U.S.-designated terrorist militias. Sudani confirmed upcoming U.S.-Iraq talks to redefine bilateral security cooperation, highlighting deepening tension between Baghdad’s formal stance and continued militia aggression. Meanwhile, Debate reignited over Popular Mobilization Forces chief Faleh al-Fayyadh as calls grow for his retirement after exceeding the legal age limit.
Iraq Loses $1.36 Billion Annually to State-Linked Oil Smuggling
Iraq is losing up to 80,000 barrels of oil daily to smuggling networks, costing $1.36 billion annually, with Prime Minister Mohammed al-Sudani vowing to restart the Iraq–Turkey pipeline and halt illicit exports. Lawmakers warned unchecked smuggling undermines state sovereignty and public services, urging tighter oversight and legal action. Journalist Steven Nabil cited a SOMO document alleging insider complicity and said U.S. Treasury figures vastly underestimate the scale. He called looming sanctions a “great shame,” exposing entrenched corruption. Meanwhile, on July 29, 2025, Iraq’s Basra Heavy and Medium crude prices dropped by 42 cents, settling at $67.1 and $70.6 per barrel, respectively, despite global oil gains. The global rise was driven by a US-EU trade deal, a possible US-China customs truce, and US political escalation toward Russia, lifting Brent to $70.28 and US crude to $66.93.
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★ SYRIA
SDF Confirms 100,000 Fighters Integration Under Syrian Flag
SDF commander Mazloum Abdi reaffirmed commitment to the March 10 agreement with Damascus, aiming to integrate 100,000 SDF fighters under a unified Syrian army and flag by year’s end. He confirmed daily contact with Damascus and dismissed claims of SDF fragmentation, citing full internal consensus on Syrian territorial unity and decentralized governance. Talks remain stalled after Damascus postponed the Paris meeting, but Abdi emphasized preparations are underway and insisted all integration must preserve tribal rights, institutional continuity, and cultural recognition—especially for Kurds. He confirmed Deir Ezzor will be governed as an independent province within Syria’s national system but tied administratively to the northeast. Abdi welcomed Saudi Arabia, and specifically Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, to join the U.S., UK, and France as formal sponsors. He confirmed ongoing de-escalation talks with Türkiye but ruled out Turkish involvement in the Damascus track. A ceasefire remains in effect in northeast Syria, with stability extending to Kurdish districts in Aleppo.
Israeli Media: IDF Questions Al-Sharaa’s Intentions, Warns of Druze Massacre
Israeli media report the IDF is uncertain whether Syria’s new leader Ahmed al-Sharaa is a genuine reformer or concealing jihadist ambitions. Though praised for blocking Iran and Hezbollah, the IDF suspects al-Sharaa is losing control over hardline allies, especially after pro-government forces allegedly massacred over 1,300 Druze civilians in Sweida between July 13–20. Israeli sources cite parallels to a March campaign that killed 1,380 Alawites. Reports confirm U.S. citizen Hosam Saraya was among the Druze victims. The ongoing Sweida siege has blocked food, fuel, and medicine, with only 1 of 14 aid trucks allowed in. Dozens have died in Druze–Bedouin clashes, with thousands displaced. Despite these atrocities, Israeli outlets say the U.S. and Saudi Arabia continue backing al-Sharaa as a strategic buffer against Iran. His ties to Türkiye and Qatar and revived Golan claims further complicate normalization with Israel.
France Seeks New Arrest Warrant for Assad Over 2013 Sarin Attack
France’s anti-terror prosecutor requested a new arrest warrant for ousted Syrian President Bashar al-Assad over his alleged role in the 2013 sarin gas attacks that killed over 1,000. The move follows a court ruling ending presidential immunity post-ouster in December 2024. Assad, now in Russia, also faces a separate 2025 warrant linked to 2017 strikes in Daraa.
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★ LEBANON
Hezbollah Crumbles as Israel Strikes, Iran Blocks Disarmament Path
The Israeli army confirmed Hezbollah’s command structure is faltering and its rocket capacity has dropped by up to 80%, with 3,000 rockets destroyed and 500 airstrikes launched during the 243-day ceasefire. Half of Hezbollah’s 25,000 fighters are reportedly dead or incapacitated. Despite the truce, Israel vows continued strikes until full disarmament, killing a Hezbollah artillery member this week in Bint Jbeil. Iran is pressuring Speaker Nabih Berri to block any move toward Hezbollah’s disarmament, while internal Lebanese divisions stall action. Washington demands full withdrawal of Hezbollah weapons but reports no progress despite repeated visits by envoy Tom Barak. Hamas, also under Iran’s influence, remains split on ceasefire terms, with its military wing resisting and external leaders showing limited flexibility. Arab and Western powers warn Beirut that failure to act could trigger Israeli escalation and lift diplomatic cover, pushing Lebanon closer to total collapse.
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★ IRAN
Israel Warns Of Iranian Strike As Khamenei Vows Defiance
Israel accelerates Arrow missile production and braces for surprise Iranian attack through proxies as nuclear tensions escalate. President Trump and UK Prime Minister Starmer warned any Iranian nuclear restart would trigger immediate U.S. strikes. Iran’s Khamenei accused the U.S. of using the nuclear file to mask deeper hostility, vowing continued scientific progress. Tehran ruled out talks with Washington but maintained limited nuclear discussions with Europe. Iran’s Intelligence Ministry alleges it foiled Israeli-NATO plots during recent conflicts, claiming regime overthrow attempts and planned assassinations of 36 officials. Tehran asserts it captured twenty Mossad agents, dismantled sabotage cells, and penetrated Israeli intelligence networks to identify military targets. The allegations remain unverified but signal Iranian counterintelligence focus on Israeli operations.
Iran-Türkiye Trade Reaches $2.2 Billion in Three Months, Turkey Becomes Third-Largest Partner
Bilateral trade between Iran and Türkiye hit $2.229 billion in the first quarter of the Iranian year, making Türkiye Iran’s third-largest trading partner. Iran exported $1.6 billion worth of goods—mainly gas, aluminum, and fertilizers—while importing $2 billion, led by gold, food, and automotive products. The trade balance favored Türkiye, with imports exceeding exports by over $370 million.
Iran’s Inflation Hits 41.2% in July, Highest in Two Years
Iran’s inflation soared to 41.2% in July 2025, marking the highest rate in two years, according to the national statistics center. Monthly inflation rose to 3.5%, driven by a 5.1% increase in food and drink prices. Annual inflation rose to 35.3%, reflecting deepening economic strain on Iranian households as fiscal and political pressures persist.
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★ TÜRKIYE
Erdogan Proposes Istanbul Trump–Putin Summit on Ukraine War
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said he plans to speak with Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump this week about hosting a leaders’ summit in Istanbul to discuss the Ukraine conflict. The move follows brief Russian-Ukrainian prisoner swap talks held in Turkey. Meanwhile, the Kremlin reaffirmed that a Putin-Zelensky meeting remains a final step toward peace and unlikely before late August.
Indonesia Signs Deal With Türkiye To Acquire 48 KAAN Fighter Jets
Indonesia signed a deal with Türkiye to purchase 48 KAAN fighter jets during Istanbul’s defence fair, aiming to modernize its air force. The agreement, witnessed by Defence Minister Sjafrie Sjamsoeedin, also strengthens joint technology efforts. Jakarta previously ordered 42 French Rafales and is considering China’s J-10 and the U.S.-made F-15EX jets.
Istanbul University Revokes Imamoğlu’s Master’s Over Diploma Fraud
Istanbul University revoked Ekrem Imamoğlu’s master’s after annulling his diploma over fraudulent enrollment, reducing his status to a high school graduate. The decision may block his presidential candidacy, which requires a university degree, though he remains mayor. His thesis was also removed from official databases following a corruption probe and forgery investigation into his academic credentials.
Turkish Airlines Secures Historic Islamic Financing Deal With Dubai Islamic Bank
Dubai Islamic Bank finalized a 12-year Shariah-compliant financing deal with Turkish Airlines to purchase an Airbus A350-941, marking the airline’s first Islamic financing agreement. Signed in Istanbul, the deal boosts the airline’s fleet diversification strategy and highlights rising global demand for ethical, flexible aviation financing solutions aligned with Islamic principles.
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★ EGYPT/AFRICA
Hamas Official Blames Egypt for Gaza Crisis, Prompting Backlash
Senior Hamas official Khalil al-Hayya blamed Egypt for Gaza’s hunger, sparking fierce criticism from Egyptian and Jordanian officials. Cairo denied the accusation, highlighting its aid efforts and mediator role. Egyptian MP Mostafa Bakry and President Sissi defended Egypt’s record, while Jordan condemned al-Hayya’s call for protests as incitement, reaffirming both nations’ continued support for Palestinians.
The UN Mission in Libya Recognizes State Council Presidency Elections
The UN mission in Libya recognized the election of a new State Council presidency, held with 95 members present and deemed transparent. It praised the broad consensus and urged inclusion of absent members. Mohamed Takala won the presidency with 59 votes, ending a year-long leadership rift with Khaled Al-Mishri that had triggered legal battles.
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★ Disclaimer: The Early Phoenix is a digest of various news sources compiled by the Early Phoenix team and edited by Rania Kisar. The items are curated, concise summaries of news items hyperlinked within each story. The items and summaries presented do not necessarily represent the views of the American Center for Levant Studies.
