THE EARLY PHOENIX
JULY 31, 202| 11:00 EST | 17:00 LEVANT
★ ISRAEL
Germany and Canada Join Push to Recognize Palestinian State
German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul said Thursday that recognition of a Palestinian state comes at the end of negotiations, but the process “must begin now.” He warned Berlin may respond to Israeli annexation efforts and called for immediate humanitarian access to Gaza, stating Germany “cannot remain passive.” Wadephul’s visit to Israel follows France, the UK, and Canada’s announcements supporting Palestinian statehood recognition at the UN General Assembly in September. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said the move depends on Palestinian reforms, including demilitarization and elections by 2026. Israel condemned the decisions as rewarding Hamas. The Palestinian Authority welcomed them.
Over Half of Senate Democrats Vote to Block Israel Arms Sales
The U.S. Senate rejected Bernie Sanders’ resolutions to halt $675 million in arms sales to Israel, but over half of Senate Democrats supported the measures—up from 15 in April. The votes reflect rising Democratic frustration over Israel’s Gaza campaign and worsening humanitarian crisis, despite continued GOP opposition ensuring the resolutions’ failure.
Israel Rejects Hamas Hostage Terms, Warns of Further Action
Israel rejected Hamas’s demand to swap hostages’ bodies for live prisoners, warning of severe consequences if no progress is made. Amid stalled negotiations, U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff is visiting Israel to assess Gaza’s humanitarian crisis and press for a deal. Internal political divisions threaten talks, while Hamas conditions future negotiations on improved humanitarian access.
NBC: Gaza Enters Famine Phase, Child Starvation Deaths Accelerate
NBC News said Gaza has crossed into famine, with 154 deaths from starvation, including 89 children. Aid groups warn child malnutrition is spiking, with hospitals reporting daily deaths. WHO and Johns Hopkins experts say irreversible damage is underway, especially among children under five.
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★ SYRIA
Syrian Ministers Visit Moscow, Confirm Military and Strategic Ties
Syria’s new government, marking the first official visit since Bashar al-Assad fled in December 2024, was led by the foreign and defense ministers for talks in Moscow with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. They were accompanied by President Ahmad al-Sharaa’s brother, Maher al-Sharaa, who holds no formal diplomatic position. Public rhetorics from the Russian official included thanking the new government for protecting the Russian troops in the coast, resuming oil shipments, a joint committee to review regime-era agreements, and a formal invitation to Syria’s president Ahmad al Sharaa this October. Analysts say Russia may offer energy incentives to offset Western inroads, and Syria is positioning itself as a geopolitical bridge to accelerate Kurdish reintegration and maintain unity. The Syrian side, on the other hand, emphasized transitional justice, national reconciliation, and respect for Syria’s full sovereignty. Foreign Minister al-Shibani thanked Moscow for opposing recent Israeli strikes in the Druze region and reiterated that Syria poses “no threat to Israel.” He also welcomed Russian mediation between Damascus and the Kurdish-led QSD to advance national integration. The joint visit signaled continuity in military ties and an intent to rebalance foreign partnerships while maintaining Russian backing through mutual political and economic recalibration.
Syrian-Swedish ISIS Member Sentenced For Burning Jordanian Pilot Alive
Sweden sentenced Osama Krayem, 32, to life in prison for war crimes and terrorism over his role in the Islamic State’s 2015 execution of Jordanian pilot Muath al-Kasasbeh. This is the first conviction worldwide of a participant in the filmed burning. Al-Kasasbeh was captured on December 24, 2014, after his F-16 crashed in Syria, then starved, caged, and burned alive in a professionally filmed ISIS video released weeks later. Prosecutors confirmed the convict appeared in the footage, received instructions, and helped prepare the execution for propaganda. He admitted seeing cameras but denied knowing the killing method. Most others involved were killed. The individual had joined ISIS’s elite Sadiq Brigade in 2014 after traveling from Malmö, Sweden, where he was radicalized. He was previously sentenced to life in France and Belgium for roles in the 2015 Paris and 2016 Brussels attacks and will return to French custody.
Syria-Iraq Joint Operation Seizes 1.35 Million Captagon Pills
Syria and Iraq conducted a joint intelligence-led operation, seizing 1.35 million Captagon pills prepared for cross-border smuggling and arresting key suspects. The mission, carried out in Damascus with Iraqi coordination, marks the first bilateral security cooperation since Assad’s fall in December 2024. Baghdad confirmed dismantling a major drug network involved in international narcotics trafficking.
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★ GULF STATES
UAE Demands Replacement of Israeli Ambassador Over Misconduct Allegations
The UAE has urged Israel to recall Ambassador Yossi Shelley over alleged misconduct, including inappropriate public behavior and business violations. Top Emirati leaders warned Shelley could be declared persona non grata. Despite growing tensions, Israel has not acted, prompting Abu Dhabi to isolate Shelley from official meetings and freeze diplomatic engagement with him.
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★ YEMEN
Houthis Launch Drone Attacks on Israeli Targets in Three Cities
The Houthis launched five drones in three operations targeting Tel Aviv, Ashkelon, and the Negev, hitting sensitive and military sites. Their spokesperson claimed the strikes were successful and vowed continued attacks until Israel ends its war and blockade of Gaza. Israel intercepted at least one drone, a day after downing a Houthi hypersonic missile over Ben Gurion Airport.
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★ LEBANON
US CENTCOM Chief Meets Lebanese Army Commander To Bolster Military Ties
General Michael Kurilla, head of US Central Command, met Lebanese Army Commander General Rodolphe Heikal in Yarzeh on Thursday. Talks focused on Lebanon’s internal situation, regional security, and strengthening cooperation between the two militaries.
Lebanese President Urges Disarmament, Hezbollah Rejects U.S.-Backed Proposal
President Joseph Aoun urged all Lebanese factions to disarm amid U.S. pressure on Hezbollah, which leader Naim Qassem firmly rejected, accusing Washington of serving Israeli interests. Aoun proposed $1 billion annually to support Lebanese forces. U.S. disarmament talks continue, with Hezbollah unwilling to fully disarm despite mounting internal and international pressure.
Saudi Initiative Seeks to Stabilize Lebanon–Syria Border Tensions
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun announced a Saudi initiative aimed at stabilizing Lebanon’s tense border with Syria, emphasizing Beirut’s desire for strong ties with Damascus. The plan comes amid regional efforts to prevent escalation. Aoun also urged armed groups to rely solely on the state, as Saudi Arabia boosts its diplomatic role in promoting Middle East stability.
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★ IRAN
Iranian President Warns Tehran Could Run Out of Water by September
President Masoud Pezeshkian warned that Tehran may face dam depletion by September due to extreme water overuse and prolonged drought. With rainfall down 40% and 70% of residents exceeding daily limits, officials urged immediate conservation. Pezeshkian rejected emergency shutdowns as a solution, calling for deep reforms, especially in agriculture, which consumes 80% of Iran’s water.
Qaem Hospital Blaze Sparks Alarm During String Of Fires In Iran
A large fire erupted Thursday in the vicinity of Qaem Hospital in Mashhad, Iran’s second-largest city, according to multiple Iranian and regional media citing the Telegram channel of Hamshahri newspaper. Footage shows emergency responders at the scene attempting to contain the blaze. No cause or casualty figures have been released. This follows two other major fires this month: on July 21, a fire at an oil products factory in Isfahan was declared under control; and on July 19, a blaze at a unit of Iran’s Abadan refinery killed one worker. State media attributed the Abadan fire to a pump leak, with no evidence of sabotage. Iranian authorities have not commented on any possible links between the incidents. Updates on the Mashhad hospital fire are still developing.
Resistance Cyber Unit Hacks Israeli Military Supplier Manamim Holdings
A cyber unit aligned with “the resistance” hacked Manamim Holdings, a top Israeli army food and logistics supplier for Gaza forces. The attackers warned companies aiding Israel’s military will be targeted next. Newly formed intelligence units are reportedly tracking firms supporting Israeli operations, escalating cyber warfare against key infrastructure.
Iranian Officials Call for Preemptive or Nuclear Strike Against Israel
Several Iranian officials and analysts are advocating preemptive or even nuclear strikes on Israel. Lawmakers and advisors argued Iran must deter future attacks by developing tactical nuclear warheads and striking Israeli command centers. Some statements included calls for testing large bombs or showing readiness to retaliate within 24 hours.
Pressure Mounts On Iranian Forces As Border Attacks Escalate
Deadly attacks by Baluch and Kurdish militants have intensified in Iran’s border regions, killing security personnel in Zahedan, Baneh, and Sardasht. Jaish Ul-Adl claimed responsibility for a July 26 courthouse assault in Sistan-Baluchestan. PJAK reportedly ambushed Iranian border guards near the Iraqi frontier. Attacks have escalated following Iran’s recent war with Israel, placing pressure on state security forces across multiple provinces.
Iran Executes Over 520 Since War, Security Shakeup Expected
Iran has executed over 520 individuals since the 12-day war with Israel, with at least 65 executions confirmed in July alone. Iran Human Rights and other monitors report death sentences carried out in Gorgan, Zanjan, Rasht, and other provinces. Charges range from espionage and armed rebellion to drug and rape offenses. Six were executed for alleged Mossad ties. On July 27, Iran executed two MEK members accused of sabotage and charged with moharebeh, a capital offense defined as “waging war against God.” The regime frequently applies this charge in political cases involving opposition groups or attacks on state authority, often bypassing fair trial standards. Over 700 people have been arrested in parallel sweeps. NoorNews, linked to Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, reported Wednesday that high-level changes to key security agencies may be imminent following internal reforms. No agencies were named, but the statement signals deepening internal scrutiny and institutional restructuring.
Pakistan Backs Iran Diplomatically
During a meeting in Geneva, Iranian Speaker Qalibaf claimed Pakistan supported Tehran’s missile response to Israeli strikes and urged Islamic unity against Zionist plots. Speaker Ayaz Sadiq publicly reaffirmed Pakistan’s solidarity with Iran and condemned Israel’s strikes on Iran but focused on de-escalation and legal diplomacy at the UN. No joint statement was released.
U.S. Sanctions Iran’s Shadow Fleet, Tehran Demands U.S. Payout
The U.S. sanctioned individuals and firms tied to Iran’s covert oil shipping network, including vessels linked to a top regime ally’s son. The Treasury described it as part of a shadow fleet moving sanctioned Iranian and Russian oil, primarily to China. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi rejected the move, calling it “threat and intimidation.” He warned nuclear talks will not resume unless the U.S. compensates Iran for damage caused during last month’s strikes. Sanctioned tankers include Palau- and Marshall Islands-flagged ships.
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★ TÜRKIYE
Türkiye’s Trade Deficit Surges 38.8% in June Despite Credit Upgrade
Türkiye’s trade deficit widened to $8.17 billion in June, up 38.8% year-on-year. Exports rose 7.9% to $20.52 billion, while imports jumped 15.2% to $28.69 billion. Moody’s upgraded Türkiye’s credit rating to “Ba3,” citing policy credibility and inflation easing, despite political risks and a surprise rate cut to 43% reigniting monetary easing.
Opposition Backs Imamoglu for Presidency Amid Detention and Credential Revocation
Turkish opposition leader Özgür Özel reaffirmed Ekrem Imamoglu as CHP’s presidential candidate despite his detention over alleged Istanbul municipality corruption. Authorities have also revoked Imamoglu’s academic degrees, potentially disqualifying him from the race. Özel pledged alternative plans if needed and confirmed CHP’s conditional participation in a parliamentary committee on Kurdish disarmament, warning against any constitutional discussions.
Siper Missile Clears Final Test, Enters Serial Production in Türkiye
Türkiye’s Siper long-range air defense system passed serial production tests, confirming readiness for deployment. Developed by ASELSAN, ROKETSAN, and TÜBİTAK SAGE, it intercepts high-altitude threats up to 150 km. Integrated into the Steel Dome project with HİSAR systems, Siper strengthens Türkiye’s air defense and boosts its defense industry’s global standing.
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★ EGYPT/AFRICA
Egypt Urges Rubio to Back Lasting Gaza Ceasefire, Warns on Nile Dam
Egypt’s Foreign Minister Badr Abdel Aaty met U.S. counterpart Marco Rubio in Washington, stressing the need for a permanent Gaza ceasefire and urgent humanitarian aid. He reaffirmed support for Palestinian statehood and warned against unilateral Ethiopian actions on the Nile Dam, demanding a binding legal agreement to safeguard Egypt’s water security.
Europe Eyes Egypt as Partial Replacement for Russian Gas Supplies
As Europe seeks alternatives to Russian gas, Egypt’s planned addition of 2.2 trillion cubic feet by 2026 strengthens its appeal. With liquefaction facilities, regional ties, and geographic advantage, Egypt offers strategic potential. However, limited output and indirect export routes constrain its role. Experts say Egypt can’t fully replace Russian supplies, but remains a key part of Europe’s energy future.
Egypt Trains Palestinians for Postwar Gaza Security Under $53 Billion Arab Plan
Egypt confirmed it is training hundreds of Palestinians for security roles in Gaza after the war, as part of its postwar governance plan endorsed by the Arab League and OIC. Foreign Minister Abdelatty emphasized the need for a ceasefire, Palestinian Authority leadership, and international support, rejecting Israel’s annexation ambitions and warning of Gaza’s deepening humanitarian crisis.
Libyan Government Launches Airstrikes Targeting Smuggling Networks
Libya’s unity government announced a new military operation with precise airstrikes targeting human trafficking and drug smuggling hubs. The Defense Ministry urged civilians to avoid affected areas, mainly along the western coast, where illegal fuel and migrant smuggling persist despite earlier campaigns. The strikes aim to dismantle armed groups undermining national stability.
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★ Disclaimer: The Early Phoenix is a digest of various news sources compiled by the Early Phoenix team and edited by Rania Kisar. The items are curated, concise summaries of news items hyperlinked within each story. The items and summaries presented do not necessarily represent the views of the American Center for Levant Studies.
