★ IRAN

1. Four To Seven Days Left: Iran’s Missile Campaign Nears Collapse

The trajectory of the war suggests Iran’s missile campaign may be entering its final phase. Early in the conflict, Iranian forces launched barrages reaching roughly 400 to 480 missiles in a single day. Since then, sustained U.S. and Israeli strikes have targeted the launcher network operated by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Israeli military assessments say more than 300 Iranian missile launchers have been destroyed or disabled, about sixty percent of Iran’s estimated launcher inventory. This attrition coincides with a sharp decline in launches, which have fallen to roughly 30 to 40 missiles per day. If the current rate of launcher losses continues, Iran’s ability to sustain large coordinated barrages could decline rapidly within several days, leaving only smaller and less frequent salvos from surviving launch systems.

Illustrative decline based on reported figures

2. Israel Strikes Iranian Security Network US Destroys Hormuz Mine Fleet

First, Israeli airstrikes struck multiple targets across Iran, including a refinery south of Tehran and an underground IRGC missile complex. Next, strikes hit Quds Force facilities near the capital and an air defense site in Masjed Soleyman. Meanwhile, Israeli forces targeted Shahid Rajaee port in Bandar Abbas and naval assets in Chabahar and Bandar Lengeh. In addition, an Israeli strike destroyed a military aircraft at Shiraz airport. Separately, Israeli strikes hit security installations in Ilam, including Internal Security Forces, Ministry of Intelligence, IRGC command centers, and Basij facilities. At the same time, U.S. forces destroyed 16 Iranian mine-laying vessels near the Strait of Hormuz to prevent disruption of a waterway carrying about 20 percent of global oil supply.

3. Iran Threatens Block Gulf Oil Exports If U.S. Strikes Continue

IRGC spokesman Ali Mohammad Naeini said Iran may stop the export of “a single liter of oil” from the region if U.S. and Israeli attacks continue. The threat implies possible disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about 20 percent of global oil supply.

4. Iranian Sources Say President Unable Contact Injured Leader Mojtaba Khamenei

Iranian sources said President Masoud Pezeshkian has had no communication with newly appointed Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei since his selection on March 8. Iranian state television also reported Mojtaba was wounded during the war but remains able to perform his duties. Ministers reportedly lack information on his status, and he has not appeared publicly since taking power.

5. Larijani Warns Trump “Be Careful Not To Be Eliminated”

Iran’s Supreme National Security Council secretary Ali Larijani warned U.S. President Donald Trump to “be careful not to be eliminated” after Trump threatened to strike Iran “twenty times harder” if Tehran blocks oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. The statement marks a direct personal threat toward the U.S. president during the ongoing war.

6. Witkoff Says Iran Uranium Enrichment Capability “Nearly Completely Destroyed”

U.S. Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff said nearly all of Iran’s uranium enrichment capability has been destroyed following U.S. and Israeli strikes. Witkoff said Washington will now see whether Iran is willing to enter dialogue. He also said Russia told President Donald Trump it had not provided Iran intelligence on U.S. military assets during a recent call with Vladimir Putin.

7. Iran Claims Thirty-Seven Missile Waves Targeting Israel And U.S. Bases

Iranian state media said the Revolutionary Guard has launched up to 37 waves of missile and drone strikes under Operation True Promise 4 against Israeli military sites and U.S. bases across the region. Iranian outlets claimed attacks on targets in Tel Aviv, Haifa, Erbil in Iraq, and the U.S. Fifth Fleet in Bahrain using Qadr, Kheibar Shekan, and Khorramshahr missiles with heavy warheads.

8. Iran Claims Missile Strike On U.S. Harir Air Base Iraq

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said it fired five missiles at the U.S. Harir Air Base in Iraq’s Kurdistan region. The base near Erbil hosts American forces operating in northern Iraq. The claim was announced in a statement published on the Guard’s Telegram channel as fighting with the United States and Israel continues.

★ ISRAEL

9. Israel Prepares Prolonged Hezbollah War As Group Returns Guerrilla Tactics

Israeli officials said preparations are underway for a prolonged military campaign against Hezbollah that could continue after the war with Iran ends. Lebanese sources said Hezbollah fighters are shifting to guerrilla tactics, operating in small dispersed units, limiting communications, and rationing anti-tank rockets. Radwan Force units have reportedly redeployed to southern Lebanon as Israel continues strikes on Hezbollah positions.

★ EGYPT

10. Egypt Offers SUMED Pipeline Route To Bypass Hormuz Oil Disruption

Egypt’s petroleum ministry said the SUMED pipeline could transport Saudi crude from the Red Sea to the Mediterranean if disruption in the Strait of Hormuz continues. The pipeline runs about 320 kilometers from Ain Sokhna to Sidi Kerir and can move roughly 2.5 million barrels per day, offering a partial alternative route for Gulf oil shipments to Europe and the United States.

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★ GULF STATES

11. Drone Attack Forces Closure Of UAE’s Largest Oil Refinery

The United Arab Emirates shut down its Ruwais oil refinery, the largest single-site refinery in the Gulf, after a drone strike sparked fires at the industrial complex. The shutdown comes as Iran’s Revolutionary Guard threatened to block all crude exports from the Gulf if U.S. and Israeli strikes continue. The Strait of Hormuz carries roughly 25% of global seaborne oil and about 20% of LNG shipments.

12. UAE Funds Evacuation Flights Returning Six Hundred Israelis Home

The United Arab Emirates funded two direct evacuation flights returning about 600 Israeli citizens from the UAE to Israel under an operation dubbed “Lionesses of the Gulf.” The flights were organized by Israel’s Foreign Ministry following a call between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed, with Emirati airlines providing fully funded transport.

13. Saudi Arabia Shuts Four Major Oil Fields As Hormuz Crisis Escalates

Saudi Arabia shut down four major oil fields—Marjan, Abu Safa, Safaniya, and Zuluf—cutting roughly 2–2.5 million barrels per day amid disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. The closures follow Iranian attacks on shipping and warnings to vessels using the waterway. Saudi Aramco said prolonged disruption to Hormuz, which carries about 20% of global oil exports, could trigger severe consequences for global energy markets.

14. Saudi Air Defenses Intercept Seven Ballistic Missiles, Seven Drones

Saudi Arabia said its air defenses intercepted seven ballistic missiles and seven drones launched toward the kingdom’s Eastern Province and Al-Kharj region, including threats directed toward Prince Sultan Air Base, which hosts U.S. forces. The Defense Ministry said all projectiles were destroyed before impact as Iranian attacks on Gulf states continue during the regional war.

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★ TURKIYE

16. Türkiye Deploys Patriot Air Defense After Iranian Missile Incursions

Türkiye deployed a Patriot air defense system in eastern Anatolia to protect its airspace after Iranian ballistic missiles twice entered Turkish airspace. NATO previously intercepted missiles on March 4 and March 9. The Patriot battery is being prepared for operational readiness in Malatya near the Kürecik NATO radar station, while Turkish F-16s and early-warning aircraft continue round-the-clock airspace monitoring.

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★ Disclaimer: This publication is a digest of various news sources compiled by the Early Phoenix team and edited by Rania Kisar. The items are curated, concise summaries of news items hyperlinked within each story. The items and summaries presented do not necessarily represent the views of the American Center for Levant Studies.