After-Action Report: August 1-6
Executive Briefing:
An assessment of the conflict from August 1-5 indicates that Israel’s military strength is approximately 42% greater than the combined forces of Hezbollah and Iran. This conclusion is derived from analyzing key metrics such as manpower, defense technology, intelligence, operational performance, and strategic effectiveness. Israel’s military consists of around 170,000 active personnel and 465,000 reserves, with a significant technological edge provided by advanced defense systems like the Iron Dome and a fleet of F-16s and F-35s. In contrast, Hezbollah has an estimated 20,000-30,000 active fighters, and Iran has 523,000 active personnel. Israel’s operational effectiveness is demonstrated through precise airstrikes in Syria and Lebanon, which have disrupted Hezbollah and IRGC capabilities by eliminating high-value targets. The intelligence capabilities of Mossad and military intelligence units allow for effective preemptive strikes and real-time operational adjustments, further enhancing Israel’s strategic readiness through rapid mobilization and comprehensive drills. Overall, Israel’s combined effectiveness ratio of 1.42 confirms its superior military strength bolstered by technological, intelligence, and strategic advantages.
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Operational Briefing: August 6
Israeli Airstrikes Neutralize Five Hezbollah Operatives, Drones Target Northern Israel
Israel Intercepts Hostile UAVs, Kills Five, and Exhibits Tactical Superiority
Following Israeli airstrikes that neutralized five Hezbollah operatives in southern Lebanon, hostile UAVs targeted strategic areas near Acre and Nahariya in northern Israel, resulting in one Israeli casualty. Reports indicate Hezbollah’s focus on a military installation between Acre and Nahariya, inflicting injuries. Hezbollah has yet to confirm its involvement in these strikes. Nahariya, situated 11 km from the Lebanese border, also experienced a UAV strike on a civilian vehicle. In Mazra’a, a drone assault critically injured one individual and moderately injured another. A fire was reported at Shiraga military base near Acre following a drone attack, with visual evidence showing smoke from the facility. The IDF identified multiple hostile UAVs crossing from Lebanon, intercepting one, with subsequent shrapnel injuring civilians south of Nahariya. Rocket and missile sirens were activated, and a false alarm was noted in Acre at 12:56 hours.
Netanyahu Delays Saudi Talks; Macron Engages Leaders During Rising Tensions
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has postponed normalization discussions with Saudi Arabia until after the U.S. presidential election, influenced by the potential re-election of former President Donald Trump. This strategic delay impacts Gaza ceasefire negotiations and reflects Netanyahu’s cautious approach within a volatile regional landscape. Concurrently, French President Emmanuel Macron has engaged in high-level talks with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed, addressing escalating Middle East tensions. Macron urged restraint following the assassination of Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, warning of potential Iranian retaliation against Israel. The discussions focused on preventing conflict escalation and addressing the Gaza humanitarian crisis, as the region remains on edge.
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Operational Briefing: August 5
Global Losses Surge, Israel Prepares for Imminent Full-Scale Attack
Iran-Israel Tensions Spark Three Trillion Loss as Volatility Soars
Global markets lost $3 trillion, with Dow dropping 1,033 points, due to weak U.S. jobs, Japan’s rate hike, and Iran-Israel tensions. The direct impact of the war between Israel and Iran includes significant disruptions in global financial markets, with increased volatility and investor shifts towards safer assets. Additionally, the conflict exacerbates regional instability, affecting oil prices and contributing to economic uncertainties in the Middle East and beyond. Alia Al-Moubayed of Jefferies International cites these factors, alongside major tech sell-offs from firms like Intel and Apple, heightening market volatility. Al-Moubayed suggested that despite the global financial uncertainty, including impacts on the Middle East’s oil and shipping sectors, investors should consider the potential for Federal Reserve rate cuts and pivot to short-term, high-yield bonds. She advised Gulf investors to favor ten-year bonds as a precaution against geopolitical risks, while maintaining a positive outlook on the prospects for market recovery.
IDF Drone Strike Kills Hezbollah Operatives, Downs Drones, Intercepts Rockets
The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) reported killing members of a Hezbollah cell in a drone strike in Mays al-Jabal, southern Lebanon. The operatives were allegedly operating a drone in the area when the Israeli Air Force targeted them. Hezbollah confirmed the deaths of Ali Shuqair, a member, and Muhammad Hammadi, a paramedic with the Islamic Message Scouts Association. Additionally, the IDF shot down two drones suspected to be from Lebanon near Metula and Nahariya. All rockets fired at Kiryat Shmona were intercepted by Israeli air defenses, with no reported injuries.
Israel Braces for Iran and Hezbollah’s Imminent Assault
Israel braces for an imminent coordinated attack from Iran and Hezbollah, prompting emergency measures across the nation. Iran’s threats to annihilate Israel and target strategic sites like Haifa port have led Israeli authorities to prepare for ballistic missile and drone strikes, potentially overwhelming air defenses. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has warned G7 foreign ministers of the potential attack, urging last-minute diplomatic pressure to prevent escalation. Israeli cities in the north are preparing for power outages and possible evacuations, with an underground command bunker in Jerusalem activated to coordinate responses. Israeli hospitals, including Beilinson, Hadassah, Sheba, Rambam, Galilee, Ziv, and Soroka, are enhancing readiness for mass casualty scenarios, conducting drills, stockpiling supplies, and fortifying facilities.
Israeli General: Israel Has No Choice But to Attack With All Might
Israel readies for potential attacks by Iran and Hezbollah, bolstering defenses with U.S. support. Following a projectile incident, defense coordination is heightened. Netanyahu warns of severe retaliation, emphasizing Israel’s capabilities. Retired General Amir Avivi underscores the importance of U.S. Central Command’s assistance. Additionally, Israel unveils a new early warning system for emergencies. Amid geopolitical tensions, a Chinese-Russian-Iranian front poses further challenges, with potential attacks possibly coinciding with Tisha B’Av, a significant day in Jewish history. Calls for prayer and readiness highlight the ongoing vigilance in Israel’s defense strategy.
Hamas Agrees on Haniyeh’s Successor
Hamas has reached a consensus on a new leader to head its political bureau, succeeding Ismail Haniyeh. This agreement was achieved after a series of meetings held in Doha. The announcement of the new leader is pending as internal administrative matters are finalized. The identity of the consensual figure selected to lead Hamas will be disclosed soon.
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Operational Briefing: August 4
Two Israelis Wounded, Hezbollah Strikes Foiled, IDF Retaliates
Two Israelis Injured, Hezbollah Members Killed, Drones Downed, Strike Fails
Hezbollah launched a drone attack near Kibbutz Ayelet HaShahar, injuring two IDF soldiers. In response, Israel conducted airstrikes in southern Lebanon, killing two Hezbollah members, Muhammad Hassan Farhat and Ali Mustafa Amr. The IDF intercepted several drones and shot down additional rockets fired from Lebanon. Concurrently, the IDF’s Kfir Brigade held drills to simulate combat in Lebanon’s mountainous regions. Hezbollah carried out at least five attacks on northern Israel, including a rocket barrage at Beit Hillel. Israeli defenses intercepted most rockets. Further Israeli actions included strikes on a Hezbollah rocket launcher in southern Lebanon, artillery fire at Odaisseh, and an unsuccessful drone attack on a motorcycle in Rab el-Thalathine. Hezbollah also claimed to have shelled an Israeli military site near Malkia, though the outcome was unclear.
Israel’s Defense Plans: Rapid, Unprecedented, and Preemptive Strategies
U.S. CENTCOM chief Gen. Michael Kurilla visited Israel to discuss preparations for a potential Iranian-led attack, with Israeli officials. During these discussions, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant emphasized the Israeli Air Force’s readiness for a rapid offensive response due to increasing threats from Iran and Hezbollah. Gallant highlighted the need for the IAF to be prepared for all scenarios, including a swift transition to offensive operations. The scenarios include unprecedented rocket fire, power outages lasting up to three days, water supply disruptions, telecom service interruptions, and major evacuations. The IDF warns of potential rocket payloads up to 500 kilograms, forcing evacuations to safer areas like Jerusalem. This preparation follows high-level meetings with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi, Mossad Chief David Barnea, and Shin Bet Chief Ronen Bar, who considered options for a preemptive strike on Iran, contingent on solid intelligence confirming an imminent threat. Meanwhile, IDF Northern Command chief Maj. Gen. Ori Gordin assured local leaders of readiness for potential conflict with Hezbollah. In Lebanon, the arrival of 32 tons of medical supplies from the WHO and an influx of people leaving Beirut highlight the region’s preparation for possible conflict, as many nations urge their citizens to evacuate.
Potential Hezbollah Retaliation Could Disrupt Israeli Mobile Networks
A report by Yedioth Ahronoth highlights Israel’s vulnerability to a potential Iranian and Hezbollah attack, which could disrupt the country’s mobile phone networks by targeting its electrical and communication infrastructure. Israel operates over 8,000 mobile network sites, with backup power lasting only two hours in the event of an outage. The Israeli government has provided ministers with satellite phones to ensure operational continuity. Mobile carriers are working to extend power backup capabilities to 12 hours, especially in northern regions. The report warns that attacks on key energy sites could severely impact electricity and mobile services.
Hezbollah’s Impunity and Beirut’s Non-Nuclear Blast: Regional Violence Expands
Four years have passed since the largest non-nuclear explosion in history devastated Beirut, and no one has been held accountable for the death of over 220 people and permanently injuring more than 6,500 others. Hundreds of victims’ families marked the fourth anniversary of the Beirut port explosion by gathering at the port, holding images of their loved ones, demanding accountability, and marching from Martyrs’ Square and the Beirut Fire Brigade Center. At 6:07 pm, a moment of silence was observed, reflecting their frustration over the lack of justice.
Prospects of justice for this heinous crime continue to be paralyzed by Hezbollah’s actions, which since launching the investigation, included meticulously planned violent public gatherings and clashes with security forces, incited by Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah accusing the judge leading the investigation of political bias and issuing direct death threats to his life. This investigation, led by Judge Tarek Bitar, faced additional setbacks through legal challenges and numerous lawsuits filed by implicated ministers and Hezbollah allies, aiming to remove him from the case. Despite these pressures, Bitar was twice reinstated after being temporarily removed due to political interference. Consequently, justice remains elusive as Hezbollah’s relentless obstruction ensures the investigation is perpetually stalled.
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Operational Briefing: August 3
Conflict Deepens: Israel and Hezbollah Exchange Deadly Strikes
Assassination of Hezbollah Leader
An Israeli airstrike in Bazouriyeh resulted in the death of Ali Nazih Abdul Ali, a key figure in Hezbollah’s Southern Front. Hezbollah honored him as a “martyr on the path to Jerusalem,” and the Israeli military acknowledged their role in the strike. This assassination likely escalated subsequent actions from both sides.
Israeli Airstrikes on Damascus-Beirut Road
Subsequent to the assassination, an Israeli airstrike targeted a vehicle on the Damascus-Beirut road. Al-Hadath reported a drone attack on a car, and the Syrian Observatory confirmed the death of one person in this strike.
Drone Strike in Deir Siryan and Hezbollah’s Rocket Response
An Israeli drone strike targeted a shop in Deir Siryan, resulting in the death of 17-year-old Imad Karim and injuries to six others. Following this, and in direct retaliation to Israeli airstrikes that had also injured civilians in Kfarkela and Deir Siriane, Hezbollah escalated the conflict by launching dozens of Katyusha rockets at Beit Hillel in northern Israel. This sequence of events highlighted the ongoing tit-for-tat nature of the hostilities, further intensifying the regional tensions.
Iranian Embassy’s Warning
In response to these escalating tensions, the Iranian Embassy in Lebanon issued a stern warning against any aggression towards Lebanon, referencing a historic 2010 military standoff as a symbol of Lebanon’s resolve.
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Operational Briefing: August 2
Hezbollah Retaliates, Assad Strikes, Militias Mobilize
Hezbollah Retaliates After IDF Strike Kills Syrian Family
Following the assassination, the IDF acknowledged the strike on Shamaa, southern Lebanon during Nasarallah’s usual pre-recorded statements. Arabic media outlets confirmed the strike killed a Syrian refugee mother and her four children in addition to five other injured Lebanese citizens. Lebanese authorities are conducting DNA tests on the deceased to ascertain the exact number of casualties from the IDF attack, with initial difficulty in body identification due to their state.
Hezbollah retaliated with rocket launches into northern Israel, marking its first missile response since a recent high-profile assassination; all were intercepted by the Iron Dome defense system. Later, IDF fighter jets targeted a building in Ayta ash-Shab, southern Lebanon, utilized by Hezbollah operatives. During these airstrikes, Lebanese channels reported that Hezbollah activated its air defenses against the Israeli jets, which had broken the sound barrier over southern Lebanon. Concurrently, a rocket launched from Lebanon impacted an open area in Western Galilee, triggering alarms across several communities but resulting in no injuries. In response to this rocket attack, the IDF conducted artillery shelling of the launch site.
Assad Strikes Back: First Military Response to Israeli Aggression
The most pivotal change that happened on Friday and received very little attention and highlight is Assad’s army response to the Israeli strikes on the Syrian village now under the control of Hezbollah and Iran. Israeli airstrikes targeted the vicinity of al-Qusayr village in the Hermel District, near the Lebanese-Syrian border, hitting Hezbollah positions, fuel tanker trucks, and other strategic locations including an airfield in northeast Qusayr. These strikes resulted in injuries to a Syrian driver. In an unprecedented move, the Assad army launched two interceptor missiles targeting Israeli aircraft engaged in operations at Dabaa Airport in northeast Qusayr, Syria, near the Lebanese borders. While there are no confirmed reports on whether these interceptors succeeded in hitting their targets, this new activity by Assad marks his first military activity against Israel.
Hezbollah, Iranian Militias Relocate Assets Amid Heightened Tensions
Hezbollah has evacuated key sites in Beirut’s southern suburbs, relocating military equipment outside the area, according to Al Arabiya/Al Hadath sources. Residents near Hezbollah facilities have been advised to move to safer locations. In a related development, Iranian militias in Deir Ezzor, Syria, transported two trucks loaded with weapons from Iraq, accompanied by Iraqi Hezbollah vehicles, as reported by the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. This follows the militias’ heightened state of alert and the evacuation of their headquarters in Al-Bukamal, where rocket launchers were moved to undisclosed locations.
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Operational Briefing: August 1
Nasrallah Vows Retaliation, $5M Bounty on Mastermind Shukr
Nasrallah Threatens Extensive Retaliation After Israel Kills Mastermind Shukr
In response to the deadly attack using the Iranian Falaq-1 missile, which tragically veered off course, killing 12 children in Majdal Shams on Monday July 29, 2024, Israel neutralized the mastermind behind the attack, Fuad Shukr.
More than 48 hours had passed in the search for his remains in the rubble of the building before Nasrallah aired his usually pre-recorded response stating Israel had crossed the red-line and vowed destructive retaliation. Nasrallah intentionally obscured the timing, location, and nature of their planned response, suggesting coordination across fronts in Iran, Yemen, Lebanon, and Gaza. Following Nasrallah’s veiled threats, the Iranian UN spokesman confirmed that Hezbollah’s response to Shukr’s assassination will surpass the historical unwritten agreement limiting engagements to border areas, prompted by Israel’s deep strikes into Beirut.
Janoubia, a news outlet known for its critical stance towards Hezbollah, reported that in response to potential security breaches, Hezbollah has initiated a comprehensive arrest campaign within its ranks. This internal scrutiny centers on suspicions about a senior Hezbollah security official, now under house arrest, who knew the exact location of Shukr and his guest in the targeted building, where they awaited his signal for a meeting with Nasrallah.
Fuad Shukr: From Beirut Bombing to Missile Failures, Who Claims the $5M Reward?
Israel has disclosed that Shukr, the strategist behind the 1983 Beirut barracks bombing—the deadliest day for U.S. Marines since World War II with 241 servicemen killed—was also responsible for recent Hezbollah missile failures. The Beirut attack, executed with a truck bomb on October 23, 1983, employed an advanced explosive enhanced by gas, significantly increasing its destructive power. The U.S. government, during President Trump’s administration, formally acknowledged Fuad Shukr’s role in this historic attack in 2017, offering a $5 million reward for information leading to his capture. In a message of defiance, a large mural featuring Qassem Soleimani, Fouad Shukr, and Ismail Haniyeh was erected by Hezbollah on Beirut International Airport road, renaming the area “Tehran Road” or “Tehran Square.”
Shukr, with deep ties to Hezbollah’s leadership, has significantly influenced the group’s military strategy, playing a key role in developing and directing numerous concurrent attacks. The recent Israeli airstrike targeting Shukr marks the most significant Israeli operation against Hezbollah since the assassination of its top military commander Imad Mughniyeh in Syria by the Israeli Mossad in 2008. According to the IDF, since October 8, Shukr has overseen Hezbollah’s military engagements against Israel, managing an array of advanced weapons including precision missiles, cruise missiles, and unmanned aerial vehicles.
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📌 In case you missed it,
📰 THE EARLY PHOENIX August 1, 2024
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