THE EARLY PHOENIX
October 11-14, 2024
The following events are presented in chronological order, covering the Yom Kippur and Columbus Day holidays.
★ ISRAEL-HEZBOLLAH WAR
Israeli Airstrikes Target Senior Hezbollah Commanders in Lebanon
The Israeli Air Force conducted multiple airstrikes in Lebanon last week, targeting senior Hezbollah figures. On Thursday, two strikes hit central Beirut, attempting to assassinate Wafiq Safa, the head of Hezbollah’s Liaison and Coordination Unit. Although Safa reportedly survived, the attack resulted in 18 civilian deaths and 92 injuries. Meanwhile, Israeli forces killed Ghareeb Al-Shuja, commander of Hezbollah’s anti-tank missile unit in the Radwan Forces, in a strike on the Shujaia region. Additionally, Hezbollah commander Araeb El Shoga was eliminated in southern Lebanon, where Israeli ground forces destroyed missile launchers and weapons caches aimed at Israeli territory.
Hezbollah Targets Haifa Explosives Factory as Israeli Strikes Intensify
Hezbollah fired approximately 320 rockets from Lebanon into Israel over the Yom Kippur weekend, targeting northern cities like Haifa and Karmiel. High-quality missiles struck an explosives factory near Haifa, while Israeli air defenses intercepted several rockets. The Israeli military reported two drones crossing from Lebanon into Israel; one was downed by fighter jets, while the other reached its destination, prompting an investigation. Social media footage showed the drone flying low over buildings in an Israeli city. In addition to the rocket barrage, Hezbollah claimed to have hit multiple Israeli military sites, including the Fatima Gate, Hunin and Zari’it barracks, and Kfar Giladi settlement, as well as targeting military bulldozers with guided missiles. Israeli forces responded with airstrikes on southern Lebanon, and over 80 Hezbollah rockets were fired in three minutes. Hezbollah declared the escalation to be just the beginning of their campaign to halt Israeli aggression.
200 Israeli Airstrikes, Ground Clashes, UNIFIL at Hostage Risk
On October 14, the IDF launched 200 airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon, but Hezbollah continued firing rockets. Heavy clashes broke out between Hezbollah and Israeli forces in southern Lebanon, with Hezbollah shelling Israeli soldiers in Maroun al-Ras. Israeli airstrikes injured Red Cross medics in Sarbin, and a UNIFIL soldier was also wounded, leading to international condemnation. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu urged the U.N. to evacuate UNIFIL forces, warning that they could become hostages to Hezbollah. In the past month, Hezbollah launched 25 rocket attacks from near UNIFIL posts, killing two Israeli soldiers. During ground raids, the IDF found weapons stored close to U.N. positions. Hezbollah claimed responsibility for 35 projectile launches and targeted an Israeli armored vehicle with a missile, intensifying the ongoing conflict.
Iranian Mixed Strike Packages Pose New Threat to Israeli Defense
A second drone was not intercepted on Sunday killing four soldiers, and injuring 69 others, seven of whom sustained critical injuries. Hezbollah stated it targeted the IDF’s Golani Brigade training base using a “swarm of drones.” The drone carried 40 kilograms of explosives. The Israeli research institute Alma noted that the “Marsad-1” drone, based on the Iranian “Migrant-2” model. Hezbollah is using Iranian satellites to improve drone accuracy and expanding its Iranian drone fleet, bypassing Israeli air defenses. This drone attack exemplified an Iranian operational tactic, using mixed strike packages to confuse Israeli defense systems. The attack successfully breached Israeli interceptors due to the combination of different weapons launched together. Intelligence suggests Hezbollah’s timing was precise, exploiting a point of weakness in Israel’s defensive network. Experts caution that Hezbollah could gain enhanced capabilities if Iran provides it with thousands of drones, similar to those supplied to Russia. Despite Israeli strikes, Hezbollah remains operational, while the Biden administration continues prioritizing diplomacy between Israel and Iran over leading a coalition against Tehran.
Hezbollah Operates Extensive Tunnel Network Reaching Israel and Syria
Hezbollah’s tunnel network, more advanced than Hamas’s, extends hundreds of kilometers, reaching Israel and possibly Syria. These tunnels, used for tactical operations like ambushes, allow Hezbollah to counter Israeli air superiority and facilitate vertical combat strategies. Military experts credit the tunnels with ensuring Hezbollah’s underground maneuverability. The Alma Research Center highlighted that Hezbollah, with assistance from North Korea and Iran, expanded its tunnel project in Lebanon after the Second Lebanon War. Unlike Hamas, Hezbollah has kept its tunnel network secret, leaving Israeli intelligence with limited information. Earlier in the week, the IDF discovered 800 military vests, grenades, explosives, AK-47 rifles, and a Kornet missile launcher aimed at Israeli communities in Galilee. Additionally, IDF soldiers found ammunition stored in civilian homes. IDF forces captured a Hezbollah terrorist hiding in a tunnel shaft in a village in southern Lebanon near the Israeli border. The tunnel, part of Hezbollah’s underground infrastructure, was seven meters deep and extended 50 meters, equipped for long-term use. The terrorist, stripped to ensure no explosives were on him, surrendered and was taken for interrogation. Footage shows him emerging from the shaft as IDF forces continue close-range combat with Hezbollah in the area. This operation is part of ongoing efforts to dismantle Hezbollah’s underground network.
Israeli Forces Uncover Hezbollah’s 800-Meter Command Center in Lebanon
The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) discovered an 800-meter-long Hezbollah command headquarters in southern Lebanon, housing advanced combat equipment. The underground complex was located within a residential neighborhood and included missiles, rocket-propelled grenades, and long-term accommodations for fighters. The IDF also confirmed the death of Muhammad Kamel Naeem, Hezbollah’s anti-tank missile unit commander, who was killed in an airstrike in the Nabatieh area. Naeem had been responsible for multiple attacks on Israeli civilians. During clashes, Israeli forces eliminated several militants. According to IDF spokesman Daniel Hagari, the complex was part of Hezbollah’s larger strategy, known as the “Occupation of the Galilee,” which aimed at future large-scale operations. This raid significantly undermined Hezbollah’s operational capabilities, marking a critical blow to the group’s military infrastructure.
22 Killed In Israeli Airstrike On Christian Village In Northern Lebanon
The strike resulted in 22 fatalities and four injuries, following an initial report of nine deaths. This incident marks the first airstrike on the Christian-majority village since hostilities escalated. A journalist reported widespread destruction, and the Lebanese army established a security cordon around the affected area for safety.
Hezbollah Strikes Safed, Israel Responds With Bekaa Airstrikes
Hezbollah announced that it launched a missile barrage on Safed in northern Israel on Monday, following an earlier attack on a naval base and military barracks in Israel. Israeli authorities confirmed air raid sirens were activated across central Israel, including Tel Aviv, prompting millions to seek shelter. The Israeli army intercepted three projectiles from Lebanon, while ongoing Israeli airstrikes hit towns in the Bekaa Valley, including Ali al-Nahri, Massa, and Brital. On Monday evening, air-raid sirens sounded across central Israel, including Tel Aviv, due to incoming Hezbollah missiles. The Israel Defense Forces confirmed alerts in over 180 cities, triggered by missiles crossing from Lebanon. The military reported intercepting all threats and subsequently targeted the missile launchers in Lebanon. One Israeli sustained injuries while seeking safety during the incident, highlighting the ongoing tensions and security concerns in the region.
Iranian Missile Barrage Causes $40–53 Million in Damage
Iran’s October 1 ballistic missile attack on Israel caused an estimated NIS 150 million to NIS 200 million ($40–53 million) in property damage. Around 2,500 claims were submitted for damage to buildings, vehicles, and contents, according to the Israel Tax Authority. The attack, involving 200 missiles, saw approximately 180 hit Israeli territory. Strikes impacted locations including a school in Gadera and a restaurant in Tel Aviv. The Israeli military confirmed damage to airbases. Iran launched the missiles in retaliation for Israeli strikes that killed senior Hezbollah and Iranian officers.
Israeli Army Intercepts Drones as Militias Target Golan
The Israeli army intercepted two drones launched from Syria toward Israeli territories on Monday, preventing them from reaching targets. Israeli military spokesperson Avichay Adraee confirmed the Air Force successfully neutralized both drones before they breached Israeli airspace. Explosions were reported over Al-Shajara and Al-Qusayr in Daraa, likely from the drone interceptions. Meanwhile, Iran-backed Iraqi militias, the “Islamic Resistance in Iraq,” claimed responsibility for these drone attacks, stating they targeted Israeli military sites in the occupied Golan Heights. Hebrew media further noted Israeli defenses intercepted several missiles from Lebanon aimed at the Golan, while others fell in open areas.
The Israeli Army Advances Inside Syria From Five Directions
The Israeli army advanced into Syria from five directions, including Wadi al-Yarmouk, near the Jordanian-Syrian-Israeli borders. Israeli tanks and military vehicles entered Quneitra, reaching towns like Khan Arnabeh, just 47 kilometers from Damascus. Reports revealed that Israeli forces advanced 1,000 meters into Syrian territory. Eyewitnesses reported Israeli forces removing border strips and expanding into five Syrian towns and constructing new security fences after advancing into Quneitra. Assad’s regime denied any Israeli incursions, calling them fantasy. However, the IDF humorously returned 300 detained goats and sheep after they approached the border. Israeli forces conducted thorough inspections to ensure the livestock were not carrying explosives. Local Syrian regime forces, stationed nearby, did not intervene in either the detention or return of the animals, indirectly proving Israeli presence.
United States Deploys THAAD Missile System to Israel
The United States confirmed the deployment of the Terrestrial-to-Air Defense (THAAD) system in Israel to counter Iranian threats. The Pentagon announced that 100 U.S. soldiers will operate THAAD, enhancing Israel’s missile defense capabilities. The system can intercept ballistic missiles outside the atmosphere using kinetic energy. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned that deploying THAAD puts U.S. forces at risk, stating Iran has no red lines in defending its assets.
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★ Syria
U.S. Forces and SDF Engage in Battles with Iranian-Backed Militias in Deir Ezzor
U.S. coalition forces and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) launched an offensive targeting Syrian regime forces and Iranian-backed militias in eastern Deir Ezzor. Mortar fire and machine gun attacks struck positions in the Badia al-Shamiya region, following drills by the Iran-backed Tribal Army. Iranian militias retaliated with a drone attack on a U.S. base near the Conoco factory, but U.S. air defenses intercepted it. In response, U.S. forces heavily shelled militia positions in Al-Mari’iyah and Al-Jufra. The escalation came after artillery fire killed two Russian officers and three Syrian soldiers. Following these events, the Russian-backed Fifth Corps withdrew from key positions in Marat after suffering losses. The coalition’s strikes are viewed as a reaction to the growing Iranian military presence in the region.
US Airstrikes Hit ISIS Camps, Militants Attack Oil Tankers
The U.S. conducted airstrikes on Islamic State (IS) camps in Syria to disrupt the group’s ability to plan attacks. The next day, ISIS militants attacked oil tankers in Deir Ezzor, targeting the Qatirji militia. Gunmen on motorcycles damaged four tankers, destroying one and injuring a driver near Makman village. ISIS claimed responsibility for the attack.
Russia and Iran Intensify Strikes and Reinforce Positions in Idlib
Russian warplanes carried out 21 high-explosive missile strikes on October 14, 2024, hitting Idlib, Aleppo, and Latakia, following claims of uncovered provocative plots targeting Russian and Assad regime forces. Meanwhile, around 200 fighters from the pro-Iranian Afghan Fatemiyoun Brigade arrived in Khan Sheikhoun and Saraqib, replacing Hezbollah forces that had recently withdrawn. These reinforcements, equipped with military vehicles and logistical trucks, coincide with discussions of potential opposition offensives toward Aleppo. Syrian opposition Al-Fath Al-Mubin Operations Room declared readiness for any escalation as regime and Iranian forces continue shelling civilians with artillery and drones.
Maher Assad Cuts Ties with Hezbollah in Syria
After the Israeli strike on his Yafour villa, Bashar Assad’s brother ordered his 4th Division to distance itself from Hezbollah. Orders were issued to prevent transferring weapons or hosting Hezbollah and Iranian militias within the Fourth Division’s headquarters and bases. Additionally, the division prohibited attacks on American and Israeli forces in the Golan.
388,000 Syrians Return, Afrin Receives Lebanese Christian Families
Since September 24, 2024, around 388,000 individuals have returned to Syria from Lebanon through crossings in the Damascus countryside, Homs, and Tartous. These arrivals, comprising Lebanese, Syrians, and Palestinian nationals, were accommodated in shelters or welcomed by residents across Latakia, Homs, and Tartous. Notably, Afrin, northwest of Aleppo, received four Syrian Christian families, facilitated by the Evangelical Church, through the Aoun Al-Dadat crossing. The returning families cited the ongoing conflict in Lebanon as their reason for departure.
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Editor’s Note:
Stay tuned for our next Early Phoenix email later today, featuring essential regional updates and a five-day summary of Iran’s critical events. Reports suggest that Iran may be reconsidering its support for the Houthis and Assad while engaging in ceasefire discussions in Lebanon with France and Iraq. Turkiye has raised serious concerns over reports that Israel may be planning to occupy Damascus, a concern directly communicated to the Assad regime. Coverage will also include Egypt, the Gulf nations, and the ongoing war with Hamas.
