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End of Day Regional Report: Iran Plots to Kill Trump, Multi-Front War, Proxy Strikes

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ISRAEL & PALESTINIAN TERRITORIES

  1. IDF and IAF Conduct Targeted Strikes in Gaza, Investigate Civilian Casualties

The IDF continued targeted strikes in Gaza this morning, focusing on the new camp in Nuseirat, central Gaza Strip, following multiple operations throughout the night. The Palestinians report approximately 20 fatalities from these strikes. According to the IDF, the attacks targeted terrorists operating from a UNRWA school in Nuseirat, using precise intelligence from the IDF and ISA about Hamas having been planning and directing attacks against IDF troops. To minimize civilian casualties, the IDF employed aerial surveillance, precise munitions, and additional intelligence measures. Additionally, the IAF targeted a Palestinian Islamic Jihad naval force commander in Khan Yunis. The IDF accused Hamas of systematically violating international law by using civilian structures and populations as human shields. Reports of civilian injuries are under investigation. One person was wounded following a barrage of rockets directed at Sderot and nearby Gaza border communities.

  1. IDF Faces Equipment Shortages, Delays Female Soldier Recruitment

The IDF informed the High Court that a lack of combat-ready tanks and ammunition shortages necessitates prioritizing current conflict needs over training new soldiers. Consequently, the recruitment of female soldiers in the Maneuverable Armor Corps has been postponed until November 2025. The IDF’s response to the High Court emphasized that all available weapons and resources are directed towards the ongoing war effort, making it impossible to allocate sufficient equipment for training purposes. The state underscored that the comprehensive preparation required for training in the Armor Corps cannot be achieved amidst the current intense conflict.

  1. Accidental IDF Shooting Injures Israeli Civilians, Hamas Calls for Real Attacks

Three Israeli civilians, aged 17, 18, and 24, were injured by IDF soldiers at a checkpoint in Beit El near Ramallah in the West Bank. The incident occurred when their vehicle aroused suspicion, leading to soldiers firing into the air and at the windshield, causing injuries. The IDF confirmed the shooting was accidental and has opened an investigation. This follows Hamas’s recent call for increased attacks in the West Bank and Jerusalem in response to IDF actions in Gaza. In a statement today, Hamas reiterated its call for attacks, claiming responsibility for an earlier incident in Tulkarm that injured three Israelis. 

  1. Three Israelis Arrested for Allegedly Working with Iranian Intelligence

Israel’s Shin Bet security agency and the elite Lahav 433 police unit arrested three Israeli citizens suspected of espionage for Iranian intelligence. The primary suspect, 21-year-old Elimelech Stern from Beit Shemesh, communicated with an Iranian agent via Telegram under the alias “Anna Elena.” Stern performed tasks such as planting money in Jerusalem and Tel Aviv, posting inflammatory materials, and delivering threatening packages, while refusing requests for arson and murder. Stern recruited two other Israelis, who were questioned and released. Payments were made in cryptocurrency. The Jerusalem District Attorney’s Office indicted Stern for maintaining contact with a foreign agent. This incident highlights ongoing security challenges and the persistent efforts of Iranian intelligence to infiltrate Israel. Authorities urge vigilance against suspicious digital interactions.

  1. Hamas Leader Sinwar Hiding in Gaza Tunnels, Under Pressure

U.S. intelligence officials believe Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar is hiding in tunnels in Khan Younis, Gaza, about 5 miles north of Rafah, facing increasing pressure from his senior commanders to end the conflict. During a closed-door conference at the Allen & Company retreat, CIA Director William Burns highlighted that Sinwar is troubled by Palestinian resentment due to the prolonged conflict. Senior Hamas commanders, weary after ten months of war, are urging Sinwar to accept an Israeli proposal facilitated in May. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is accused of sabotaging the potential deal due to pressure from Itamar Ben-Gvir. Despite Hamas agreeing to significant concessions, Netanyahu introduced new conditions, disrupting negotiations aimed at securing a 42-day ceasefire and the release of many hostages. Despite these setbacks, negotiators remain committed to advancing talks.

  1. Ultra-Orthodox Mob Attacks Senior IDF Officers Following Draft Announcement

A mob of ultra-Orthodox rioters attacked senior IDF officers Maj. Gen. David Zini and Brig. Gen. Shay Tayeb in Bnei Brak following a meeting with Rabbi David Leybel about drafting Haredi men into the military. The rioters, members of the extremist Jerusalem Faction, surrounded the officers’ vehicle, shouting “murderer” and throwing objects. Police escorted the officers to safety. Politicians, including Interior Minister Moshe Arbel and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, condemned the attack, emphasizing that such violence does not reflect Jewish or Israeli values. Meanwhile, the IDF announced it will begin issuing draft notices to ultra-Orthodox men starting Sunday, following a Supreme Court ruling mandating the inclusion of yeshiva students in the draft. This initiative marks the initial stage of screening and evaluation for new recruits, aiming to integrate the Haredi community into the military due to increasing operational needs. Defense Minister Gallant stressed the importance of broad recruitment for the IDF’s mission.

  1. From Arab Israeli Town to IDF: Muslim Woman’s Inspirational Journey

Maj. Ella Waweya, known as “Captain Ella,” is the highest-ranked Arab Muslim woman in the IDF, serving as the deputy spokesperson for the Arab world. Her journey from an Arab Israeli town to the IDF Spokesperson Unit in Tel Aviv reflects her determination and quest for identity. Enlisting at 24, after earning degrees in communications and government studies, she broke barriers in a community where military service is rare for women. Her office, adorned with symbols of various faiths, showcases her inclusive approach. Driven by a desire to reconcile her Israeli identity with her Arab heritage, especially during the Second Intifada, she aimed to counter media misrepresentation. Despite initial secrecy and community backlash, her family became proud of her achievements. Waweya manages communications with the Arab world, countering misinformation and promoting Israel’s narrative through heartfelt dialogue. She inspires others, particularly women, to pursue education and success, embodying the democratic and inclusive values of Israel. Waweya encourages everyone to visit Israel, emphasizing its vibrant, multicultural society.

  1. Trump’s Running Mate Urges Swift End to Gaza War

JD Vance, the new Republican vice presidential nominee, has called for a swift end to Israel’s war on Gaza, criticizing President Joe Biden for allowing the conflict to continue for too long. Speaking to Fox News, Vance emphasized the need for Israel to conclude the war quickly to avoid exacerbating their situation. He also highlighted the importance of reinvigorating the peace process between Israel and its neighbors post-conflict. Vance, who has identified as a Zionist, previously urged Biden not to implement special immigration protections for Palestinians, citing security concerns. Additionally, he has opposed any limits on military aid to Israel.

  1. Israel Rejects Norwegian FM Visit Over Palestinian Statehood Stance

Israel has denied Norwegian Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide’s request to visit Israel and the West Bank, protesting Norway’s unilateral recognition of Palestinian statehood in May. The Israeli Foreign Ministry also criticized Norway for not recognizing Hamas as a terrorist group and for supporting a South African petition to the International Court of Justice against Israel regarding the 1948 Genocide Convention. When Eide personally appealed to Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz during a NATO Summit in Washington, Katz rejected the request, citing Norway’s actions against Israel. Norway’s Foreign Ministry expressed a desire for continued dialogue despite the setback.

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ISRAEL-HEZBOLLAH CRISIS

  1. Hezbollah Leader Amer Dagher and Family Killed in Israeli Strike

An Israeli airstrike on Bint Jbeil, Lebanon, killed Hezbollah leader Amer Dagher and his sisters, along with three other civilians, and wounded three more. Israel’s military reported targeting a Hezbollah weapons storage facility and a military structure in the area. Hezbollah announced Dagher’s death, marking him as the 369th fighter lost in the conflict. Hezbollah accepted responsibility tonight for firing dozens of Katyusha and Flak rockets at Kiryat Shmona last night in response

  1. Israeli Drone Strike Kills Two Syrians in Lebanon, Hezbollah Retaliates

An Israeli drone strike killed two Syrian nationals, on a motorcycle in Arnoun, Nabatiyeh district, bringing the civilian death toll in Lebanon to 87 since October 8. In response, Hezbollah launched missiles at Israel’s Kiryat Shmona settlement. The clashes continued with multiple Israeli airstrikes and artillery shelling on southern Lebanon, and rocket sirens sounded in northern Israel. 

  1. Hezbollah Intensifies Attacks on Israel Using Iranian Drones

On July 14, the pro-Iranian al-Mayadeen news outlet reported that Hezbollah is now employing the same Iranian Shahed 101 drones used by Russia against Ukraine. Over the past week, Hezbollah claimed responsibility for 43 attacks on northern Israel, intensifying its use of kamikaze drones since declaring support for Hamas. The conflict has resulted in the deaths of 11 Israeli civilians and 19 IDF soldiers. In one notable incident on July 9-10, Hezbollah fired around 40 Grad rockets into the Golan Heights, killing two civilians. The IDF has targeted senior Hezbollah figures, eliminating 35 high-ranking operatives since October. Prominent airstrikes by the IDF in Lebanon include the elimination of Mustafa Hassan Salman, a key figure in Hezbollah’s rocket and missile unit, and strikes on Hezbollah’s air defense facilities. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has claimed that the group is prepared for all-out war, using the conflict to bolster support among its base and emphasize the group’s readiness and resilience.

  1. Fires Ravage Lebanon and Israel as Hezbollah and IDF Exchange Attacks

Forest and farmland fires have surged along the Israel-Lebanon border as Hezbollah and Israel approach full-scale war. Since hostilities began on October 8, 191 fires have been recorded, with Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) attacks sparking at least 115 fires in Lebanon. These fires, many ignited by incendiary munitions like white phosphorus, have caused significant environmental damage and pose long-term health risks. Hezbollah’s rocket salvos have set ablaze over 21,000 acres in northern Israel and the Golan Heights by early July 2024. The militant group has conducted 2,410 attacks, mostly using rockets, anti-tank missiles, and suicide drones. Notably, 5.7% of Hezbollah’s strikes have hit locations more than 5 kilometers from the Israel-Lebanon border, a shift corresponding with the IDF’s elimination of key Hezbollah leaders. The Lebanese government has lodged a complaint with the UN over Israeli attacks damaging agricultural areas, highlighting the severe impact of the ongoing conflict.

  1. Internal Strife in Lebanon Weakens Hezbollah’s Hold

Kataeb Party Leader Samy Gemayel called for the closure of the southern Lebanon front to address Lebanon’s internal issues and criticized Hezbollah’s dominance. He advocated for implementing U.N. Resolution 1559, demanding militia disarmament, and called for national dialogue and compensation for conflict victims. Meanwhile, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah faces significant internal tensions following today’s assassination of Samir Qabbani, a top commander, in the Madi neighborhood exposing the deep frictions with the Amal Movement. Nasrallah, aware of the perpetrators, chose to close the case to avoid escalating conflict, highlighting the fragile alliance. A survey indicated only 30% of Lebanese trust Hezbollah, though support among non-Shi’ite communities for its regional involvement has grown.

  1. Germany Arrests Hezbollah Member for Drone Procurement

German authorities have arrested Fadel Z., a suspected Hezbollah member, in Salzgitter. He is accused of procuring materials for drones intended for attacks on Israel. Prosecutors revealed that Fadel Z., a Lebanese national, has been a member of Hezbollah since at least the summer of 2016. He was detained on charges of supporting a foreign terrorist organization. Germany classifies Hezbollah’s military wing as a terrorist group, a designation also held by the United States, the European Union, and Britain.

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IRAN

  1. U.S. Heightens Security for Trump Following Intelligence on Iranian Assassination Plot

Recent intelligence from a human source has alerted U.S. authorities to an Iranian plot to assassinate former President Donald Trump. In response, the Secret Service has bolstered security measures for Trump. Although there is no connection between this plot and Thomas Matthew Crooks, who attempted to kill Trump at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, the incident highlights concerns about future public events President Trump may hold. Both the Trump campaign and Secret Service have refrained from commenting on specifics but confirmed increased protective efforts. Iran’s mission to the UN has denied the plot, labeling the accusations as malicious. This development comes as Iran continues to vow revenge for the U.S. military’s 2020 assassination of General Qasem Soleimani. Similar threats have been made against former Trump officials, including John Bolton and Mike Pompeo. 

  1. Netanyahu Reveals Iran Planned Multi-Front Invasion to Destroy Israel

In a meeting with parents of soldiers killed at the IDF’s Nahal Oz base, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu revealed that Hamas’s recent invasion was part of Iran’s broader strategy for a multi-front attack aimed at destroying Israel. Netanyahu explained that Hamas’s Gaza leader, Yahya Sinwar, acted prematurely. Iran’s plan involves simultaneous invasions and missile fire from Gaza, Lebanon, Judea and Samaria, Jordan, and direct attacks from Iran. This strategy aims to physically destroy and conquer Israel. The disclosure follows a leaked Channel 12 news recording where Netanyahu detailed threats from Iranian proxies and direct Iranian military actions.

  1. Iran’s President-Elect Criticized During Leadership Transition and Ashura Observance

Iranian President-elect Masoud Pezeshkian faces criticism for attending religious ceremonies during the crucial transition period, with recent photos showing him with IRGC Quds Force commander Esmail Qaani at a Muharram mourning event. Critics argue Pezeshkian is neglecting political planning, having yet to hold a press conference since his election. Meanwhile, during the “Evening of Mourning” for Ashura at Ruhollah Khomeini’s shrine, Iran’s Supreme Leader, along with Qaani and acting President Mohammad Mokhber, was seen covering his face. The president-elect was notably absent. Social groups are demanding attention from the incoming administration, though supporters defend Pezeshkian’s participation in religious events, asserting it does not hinder his political duties.

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YEMEN

  1. Yemeni Houthis Target Israeli-Owned Vessel in Red Sea

The Houthis in Yemen have claimed responsibility for attacking the Bentley ship, an Israeli-owned vessel, in the Red Sea using explosive boats, drones, and missiles. The US Army confirmed the attack, noting that the ship was transporting oil from Russia to China and suffered no damage or casualties. The Houthis also targeted the Chios Lion oil tanker, and the Olvia in the Red and Mediterranean seas. The US Central Command confirmed these attacks, reporting no damage or injuries

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IRAQ

  1. Iraqi Resistance Threatens Arab States

The Islamic Resistance in Iraq has issued threats against Arab nations, particularly Saudi Arabia, accusing them of aiding Israel in bypassing a naval blockade enforced by Yemen’s Houthis on Israeli-linked cargo ships in the Red Sea. The blockade supports Palestinians amidst Israel’s actions in Gaza. Reports indicate that various Arab states, including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, and Turkey, have increased trade with Israel since October 7. Concurrently, Iranian-backed militias in Iraq and Yemen are coordinating actions against the US, Israel, and Saudi Arabia, with a joint operations room linking Yemeni forces, Iraqi militias, and Hezbollah.

  1. Iraq Wins Appeal Against $121 Million Recovery for Wye Oak Technology

The D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals ruled in favor of Iraq, overturning a previous district court decision that awarded Wye Oak Technology Inc. $121 million in a contract breach case. The appeals court found that Iraq was immune under the Foreign Sovereign Immunities Act (FSIA). Judge Patricia A. Millett, writing for the court, stated that Iraq’s breach of contract did not cause a direct effect in the United States, which is a requirement for losing immunity under FSIA. Consequently, the judgment was reversed, and the case was remanded for dismissal.

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 THE GULF

  1. Biden Aide Colluded in Menendez Qatari Royal Meeting

Central to the case against Senator Bob Menendez on 16 federal bribery convictions is Mark Doyle, a former aide to President Joe Biden, who facilitated a crucial meeting between Menendez and Qatari royal Sheikh Sultan bin Jassim Al Thani. Sheikh Sultan is a prominent member of the Qatari royal family and a key figure in Qatar’s business and government sectors. This meeting, which led to a multimillion-dollar investment for New Jersey developer Fred Daibes from a Qatari investment fund, demonstrated Doyle’s instrumental role. Doyle, now leading a super PAC supporting Biden’s re-election, arranged this meeting and, along with lobbyist Vladimir Petrovic, made donations to Menendez’s campaign around the same time.

  1. Qatar Cement Market Booms, QIB Profits Rise, Strengthening Ties with South Korea

Qatar’s cement market is expected to reach $1,550.9 million by 2032, driven by urbanization and substantial investments in civic infrastructure, with a CAGR of 5.2%. Key sectors include civic infrastructure (5.5% CAGR) and residential and commercial buildings (5.1% CAGR). Major players like Qatar National Cement Company are investing in innovation. Qatar Islamic Bank reported a 5.6% increase in net profit for H1 2024, reaching 2.065 billion riyals ($567 billion), with assets growing by 4.9% and customer deposits up by 5%. South Korea’s First Vice Foreign Minister Kim Hong-kyun will visit Qatar to discuss enhancing trade and economic cooperation, following significant agreements during President Yoon Suk Yeol’s previous visit. This visit emphasizes Qatar’s role as a key LNG and crude oil supplier to South Korea.

  1. Qatar’s Moves Reflect Diplomatic Pressures from Iran

While Iran leverages The Cradle to portray Qatar as secretly aligned with Israel, Qatar’s recent release of eight Iranian sailors may be seen as a possible concession. These accusations, aiming to discredit Qatar’s neutrality, coincide with Qatar’s third sailor repatriation this year, highlighting ongoing diplomatic gestures towards Iran. This dynamic reflects Iran’s strategy to undermine Qatar’s mediator role amidst regional tensions and alliances.

  1. IMF Downgrades Highlight Saudi Arabia’s Economic Diversification Challenges

Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, aiming to diversify its oil-dependent economy, faces significant hurdles. Funding cuts have impacted key projects like the Neom city and delayed the launch of a new airline. Foreign investment remains low, with only $2.5 billion raised in Q1, far short of the $100 billion annual target. The IMF has downgraded Saudi growth projections to 1.7% in 2024, down from 2.6%, citing ongoing oil production cuts. Despite oil still constituting 70% of export profits, lower oil prices strain the budget, prompting Saudi Arabia to issue more bonds, becoming the largest emerging market bond issuer. The non-oil sector, vital for diversification, shows slow growth, with the weakest performance since the pandemic. International cooperation, highlighted by recent talks with Qatar, Hungary, and the Solomon Islands, focuses on sustainable development and economic ties, yet the nation faces pressures to accelerate its diversification for a sustainable future.

  1. Saudi-China Collaboration Advances in Defense and Wind Energy

Saudi Arabia is strengthening its defense and renewable energy partnerships with China. On July 11, 2024, Saudi Armed Forces Chief of Staff General Fayyadh Al-Ruwaili met with Chinese Ambassador Chang Hua to discuss localizing Chinese military technologies and enhancing Royal Saudi Naval Forces (RSNF) capabilities. The meeting focused on upcoming defense deals, strategic cooperation, and transferring advanced military technology, deepening Saudi-China defense ties. In renewable energy, China’s Envision Energy has partnered with Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) and Vision Industries to establish a wind turbine factory. The collaboration, marked by a signing ceremony attended by PIF governor Yasir Othman Al-Rumayyan and Envision chair Lei Zhang, aims to expand wind power in the Middle East. 

  1. US and Saudi Arabia Sign Agreement for Space Collaboration

The United States and Saudi Arabia have signed a framework agreement to enhance cooperation in aeronautics and space exploration, covering areas such as space science, exploration, aeronautics, space operations, education, and Earth science. NASA Administrator Bill Nelson and Saudi Space Agency CEO Mohammed bin Saud Al-Tamimi signed the agreement, which establishes a legal framework for collaboration. This deal follows Saudi Arabia’s signing of the Artemis Accords in 2022, committing to transparent and responsible space exploration. The agreement marks a significant step in Saudi Arabia’s efforts to build a strong space sector and reflects its commitment to global space partnerships.

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 TURKIYE

  1. Türkiye’s AI Ambitions, Gas Export Plans, and Economic Outlook

Türkiye is leveraging AI to transform its economy, with a potential $15.7 trillion impact by 2030, and emphasizes the need for international collaboration and investment in AI education. Meanwhile, Türkiye is prepared to increase natural gas exports to the EU if long-term commitments justify infrastructure investments, preferring direct expansion via Bulgaria. Economically, Türkiye is growing but faces high inflation and tight monetary policies, with the IMF projecting slower growth in 2025. The stock market is strong, with the BIST 100 index reaching a new high. Balancing inflation control with economic growth is crucial for political stability.

  1. Russia Leads Bid for Turkey’s Next Nuclear Power Plant

Russia’s state-owned Rosatom Corp. is leading the bid to construct Turkey’s second nuclear power plant in Sinop, reflecting the deepening energy ties between Ankara and Moscow. Rosatom, which began commissioning Turkey’s first atomic plant in Akkuyu in April, is well-positioned to build the new plant due to its existing experience in the country’s nuclear sector. Turkey is also in discussions with China and the US regarding potential nuclear projects, indicating a broad interest in expanding its nuclear energy capabilities. Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar highlighted Rosatom’s advanced position in these negotiations during an interview.

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 EGYPT & NORTH AFRICA

  1. Egyptian Intelligence Suggests Prolonged Gaza Conflict Leading to U.S. Elections

The Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar, associated with the “Axis of Resistance,” reports that Egyptian intelligence has submitted a position paper to President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi. The paper suggests that negotiations between Israel and Hamas may progress slowly until the U.S. elections in early November, indicating a potential extension of the Gaza conflict until the end of the year. According to the report, Prime Minister Netanyahu is banking on a Trump victory, which could shift the American government’s stance on the war. The paper advises Egypt to prepare additional steps along the Gaza border and establish new points for airdropping aid in response to the prolonged conflict.

  1. Qatar Charity Launches Campaign to Aid Displaced Sudanese Civilians

Qatar Charity (QC) has initiated a “Sudan Appeal” campaign to support Sudanese civilians displaced by the ongoing war, which has created the world’s most severe displacement crisis. The campaign, launched on Monday, aims to provide essential aid to more than one million people. QC plans to distribute food baskets to 550,000 individuals, supply clean drinking water to save the lives of 400,000 children, and offer mobile sanitation units for 200,000 people to prevent disease outbreaks. Additionally, the campaign will provide shelter tents for 250,000 displaced individuals. This initiative comes as Sudan faces famine, disease, and violence, with half of its population—approximately 26 million people—in urgent need of humanitarian aid.

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SYRIA

  1. Illusion of Legitimacy: Unveiling Syria’s Sham Elections

Syria held parliamentary elections on July 15, marking the fourth such event since the people’s revolution began in 2011. Despite ongoing conflict, displacement, and economic turmoil, Bashar al-Assad uses these elections to project an illusion of control and legitimacy. Assad’s regime stages these elections to reward loyalists and maintain patronage networks, with many viewing them as inconsequential. The elections, lacking transparency and fairness, serve to portray Assad as in control, justify normalizing relations with other countries, and legalize his policies and actions. The People’s Assembly, largely a rubber-stamp body, is crucial for amending the constitution to allow Assad to run again in 2028. Parliamentary elections also enable the regime to adjust its patronage networks, rewarding loyalists and punishing dissenters, without fixed criteria for seat allocation. This manipulation ensures the regime’s strongholds are over-represented, fostering competition among loyalists and sidelining underperformers. These historically rigged elections maintain Assad’s Baath Party’s dominance, ensuring his influence over the legislative process. Despite attempts to legitimize these elections, they are widely boycotted in non-regime territories and condemned by Western countries for failing to meet international norms. Genuine transformation in Syria remains elusive, dependent on credible, inclusive governance as outlined by UN Resolution 2254. Assad’s control over elections remains unchallenged, supported by internal patronage and external backing from Iran and Russia.

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📌 In case you missed it,

📰  THE EARLY PHOENIX July 16, 2024

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