By: Rania Kisar, Catherine Perez-Shakdam, Ahmad Barbour, Early Phoenix Team, ACLS July 28, 2024
Executive Briefing:
Despite all diplomatic attempts, Hezbollah and Israel are already at war, though they have yet to formally announce the zero hour.
Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s address to Congress, highlighting Iran as a top global financier of terrorism, is supported by the evidence in the passages below. Khamenei’s inauguration of the supposedly democratically elected President Pezeshkian was, in reality, a reinforcement of his absolute reign. The Early Phoenix team conducted an exclusive analysis of Iran’s most destabilizing global and regional activities from December 2022 to December 2023. The analysis provides access to the ACLS Journey into History archive, documenting each country’s previously highlighted, curated, and reported events, proving Iran to be a critical risk not only to the national security of the United States and Israel but also to the Arab region. The situation remains exponentially volatile, with concurrent reports of a new battlefront. Images of crying mothers who lost their children after the failed Hezbollah strike in the Golan Heights paint a grim picture, truly depicting the impact of America’s power. The world awaits the American elections, deemed the world’s last chance to avoid WWIII.
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★ IRAN
Iran Annual Report 2023: Global Terrorism, Assassinations, Weapons, Nuclear Threats
The 2023 timeline exposes Iran’s significant role in global terrorism, encompassing assassination plots, weapon smuggling, aggressive nuclear pursuits, support for proxy groups, strategic military alliances, cyber warfare, and internal repression. Highlighting Iran’s destabilizing tactics, this meticulously researched timeline by the Early Phoenix Team and supported by ACLS underscores the urgent need for international vigilance. The timeline, enriched by the ACLS archive, equips policymakers and scholars with critical insights to counter Iran’s pervasive threat to global security.
Iran’s Presidential Inauguration Facade
In a meticulously orchestrated grand Tanfiz ceremony in Tehran, Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei solidified his control over Iran by endorsing Masoud Pezeshkian as president, two days before Pezeshkian’s parliamentary oath. This event was reported to have been attended by ten unnamed presidents and more than 70 undisclosed foreign dignitaries, presenting a facade of international support. As usual since the establishment of the Mullah doctrine in 1979, Khamenei reiterated his deeply rooted hatred of the United States and its allies in the region and Europe calling for the complete destruction of reliance upon superpowers, signaling the continuation of contentious nuclear ambitions and support for proxy groups, ensuring unchallenged authority and ongoing regional and global instability. Click the link to read an in-depth expert analysis detailing Iran’s political strategy, leadership dynamics, nuclear ambitions, and its implications on Middle East stability.
Surge in Iranian Oil Exports to China and India
China and India are helping Iran evade U.S. sanctions by significantly increasing oil trade. China received 45 million barrels from Iran by mid-2024, with exports to China rising from 324,000 barrels per day in 2020 to 1.1 million by mid-2023. India and Iran have also committed to developing the Shahid Beheshti port in Chabahar, boosting regional trade despite U.S. warnings. These actions are the result of U.S. policy shifts resulting in the exponential growth of Sino-Indian-Iranian oil trade. The following is a brief comparison between the Trump and Biden administrations’ policy impact on Iran. Click here to access a comparative analysis detailing: From Trump to Biden: The Evolution of U.S. Policy and Its Effects on Sino-Iranian Oil Trade.
Iran-Armenia Arms Deal Heightens Geopolitical Tensions in Caucasus
The recent $500 million Iran-Armenia arms deal, providing advanced military technology, marks a significant move in Iran’s strategy to influence the Caucasus region’s security. This agreement not only enhances Armenia’s military capabilities but also signals Iran’s ongoing involvement in regional destabilization.
Iran’s Ambitious Railway Project Stalled Without Russian Loan
Iran’s ambitious railway project, crucial for the International North-South Transport Corridor, remains stalled as it awaits a promised $1 billion loan from Russia. Deputy Transportation Minister Kheirollah Khademi underscored the project’s reliance on this funding, without which the railway connecting Rasht and Astara cannot progress. Initially projected to generate $20 billion in annual revenue, the current foreign cargo transit earnings of only $1 billion cast doubt on these optimistic forecasts.
Ahmadinejad Allegedly Survives Sabotage Attempt by Special Security Agents
Iran’s former president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, narrowly escaped an alleged assassination attempt on July 15. Sources claim special security agents, likely from the IRGC’s Ansar-al-Mahdi Protection Corps, tampered with his Toyota Land Cruiser.
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★ ISRAEL- LEBANON HEZBOLLAH Situation Report
Hezbollah Missile Misfire Kills 12 Children in Golan Heights Stadium
On Saturday July 27, 2024, four Hezbollah militants were killed in an Israeli airstrike on Kfar Kila, a border town in southern Lebanon. A confidential security source corroborated the fatalities to AFP. Hezbollah corroborated the loss of four combatants due to the Israeli bombardment, withholding additional specifics.
In response, a malfunctioning Iranian Falaq-1 missile deployed by Hezbollah, intended for Israeli forces in Shtula, tragically veered off course and killed 12 children in a Majdal Shams stadium. Majdal Shams, the largest Druze village in the Golan Heights with a population of approximately 11,458, is one of four Syrian Druze cities in the Israeli-occupied territory since the 1967 war. This catastrophe ignited extensive and heartrending funeral processions, plunging the victims’ mothers into severe psychological turmoil. Historically resistant to Israeli citizenship due to their Syrian affiliations, the Golan Druze have witnessed a surge in applications among the youth, following the Assad regime’s treachery against the Druze community during the 2018 ISIS onslaughts in southern Syria. This recent attack exacerbated feelings of betrayal towards the Assad regime and its allies.
Protests and social media outrage demanded justice and censured Israeli ministers. Druze leaders vehemently denounced the attack, called for a UN inquiry, and implored their Lebanese counterparts to desist from encouraging further meddling.
In the immediate aftermath, Hezbollah repudiated responsibility, attributing the incident to a potential Israeli defense system malfunction. Al Mayadeen, spearheading a psychological propaganda campaign to deflect culpability, underscored inconsistencies in Israel’s narrative, noting that the Falaq-1’s 50 kg warhead typically generates a substantial crater. Lebanese officials demanded an international investigation and echoed Hezbollah leader Mohammad Raad, who was specifically named by the Israeli authorities to have led the attack on Majdal Shams, warning Israel of initiating its end if it launches a large-scale war.
Both the Israelis and Americans confirmed Hezbollah’s responsibility for the tragedy. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) swiftly conducted airstrikes on seven Hezbollah targets deep inside Lebanon. These strikes targeted weapons caches and terrorist infrastructure, aiming to deliver a decisive response to the aggression. Israel’s initial response was targeting seven Hezbollah locations “deep inside Lebanese territory”, causing material damage.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu abruptly truncated his visit to the United States and returned to preside over the war cabinet crisis management meeting. On Sunday night, a war cabinet meeting authorized Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Galant to determine the strategic retaliation, expected to target strategic military sites in Lebanon. Potential Israeli responses include targeting Hezbollah’s military depots and executing key leaders.
Israeli drones were observed flying over multiple regions in Lebanon on Sunday evening, including the Bekaa, Baalbek, Rayak, Masnaa, and Taria. The advanced military technology and increased surveillance indicate Israel’s continued focus on Hezbollah’s movements and strategic locations, left Lebanon in a state of panic. Hezbollah has evacuated key sites in anticipation of Israeli airstrikes.
Iranian-led Iraqi factions announced that if Israel launches a large-scale war on Lebanon, the Syrian Golan front could be activated as part of the response. Additionally, Yemeni groups are prepared to support Hezbollah if the conflict escalates. All resistance factions, including Iraqi and Yemeni groups, are ready to assist Hezbollah in such a scenario. The military operations room is closely monitoring the rising tensions between Hezbollah and Israel.
Diplomatic escalation is evident as the US Embassy has issued another warning to its citizens against traveling to Lebanon due to escalating regional tensions. Middle East Airlines and other airlines have adjusted flight schedules, with some flights to Beirut rescheduled from the evening of July 28 to the morning of July 29. Saudi Arabia, France, Norway, and Sweden have urged their citizens to leave Lebanon immediately. International actors, including the U.S., Egypt, and the UN, urge restraint to prevent a regional war.
New EMP Weapons from Iran Could Paralyze Israel’s Defense Systems
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) recently delivered advanced electromagnetic pulse (EMP) weapons to Hezbollah, capable of crippling Israel’s radars and communications systems. The shipment, reported by a high-ranking IRGC Quds Force official, includes bombs and missiles that can be launched from stationary platforms or drones. These EMP weapons could incapacitate Israel’s communication systems within minutes, posing a significant threat in the event of conflict. This development is part of Iran’s broader strategy to prepare for a multi-front war against Israel.
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★ SYRIA
Putin Summons Assad to Moscow as Middle East Tensions Rise
On July 25, 2024, Putin summoned Bashar al-Assad to Moscow for a summit that was not pre-announced by the Kremlin, with details emerging only hours after its conclusion. Beyond the ceremonial facade, the visit signals critical developments for Assad.
The first topic Puttin addressed with Assad is the upcoming U.S. elections and potential Trump policies towards Syria. Russian experts cited the Israeli Prime Minister’s address to the Congress noting Netanyahu’s aggressive and escalatory speech to Congress, relying on Trump’s victory and Israel’s support was a grave cause of concern for the Russian leader.
Putin further expressed concerns about the escalating Middle East conflict and its impact on Assad’s regime. Discussions included Israel’s resolve to eliminate threats in neighboring countries and the implications for Assad. Putin warned that a potential military confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon could destabilize the region and weaken Assad’s position.
In his program “What’s Left?”, Mouaz Almohareb, a leading Syrian Opposition anchor, delved into Bashar al-Assad’s visit to Moscow, questioning its purpose and timing while exposing fallacies in Russian and Assad media. To watch Mouaz’s full satirical analysis with English subtitles, click here: [Watch Now] Or
Mouaz suggested the trip, speculated to facilitate reconciliation between Turkey and Syria, highlighted Putin’s influence in geopolitical dynamics. The Kremlin’s release of curated footage and discreet handling of Assad’s visit raised questions about the true intentions behind these high-level discussions. Al Mohareb criticized the Syrian regime’s portrayal in state media, depicting Assad as a figurehead manipulated by external powers like Russia and Iran, with global powers exploiting the Syrian crisis to their advantage.
Russian Navy Celebrates Navy Day at Tartus Port
The Russian Navy marked Navy Day with a celebration at the Syrian port of Tartus. The event featured a military display, including the frigate Admiral Grigorovich, known for launching Kalibr missiles into Syria, the submarine Ufa, and the modern frigate Mercury. Similar celebrations occurred at Russia’s main naval bases, with President Vladimir Putin attending the primary naval parade in St. Petersburg. The Tartus base, Russia’s only warm-water port in the Mediterranean, has been leased to Russia for 49 years since 2017, with an option for a 25-year extension. The annual operational cost is estimated at $41.5 million.
Iranian Militias Hit Iraq’s U.S. Base; U.S. Retaliates in Syria
On Friday July 26, 2024, Iraq’s Ain al-Asad airbase, which accommodates U.S.-led troops, was targeted in a second attack involving multiple rockets, following an earlier drone strike. Both incidents resulted in no casualties or significant damage. On Saturday night, coalition drones destroyed a Grad rocket launcher mounted on a pickup truck near the village of Baqras, which had fired rockets at the Conoco base. This morning on Monday July 29, 2024, two drones, believed to be American, conducted airstrikes on militia positions in the towns of Marat and Hatlah.
Russian and U.S. Jets Clash Over Syria, Signaling Broader Conflict
In the airspace over Syria, tensions between the U.S. and Russia continue to escalate as both nations’ aircraft engage in increasingly risky maneuvers. Recent incidents involving Russian SU-35 jets and U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drones have been characterized by the U.S. military as unprofessional and hazardous, with Russian jets deploying flares and performing close fly-bys. These actions, described in sources like Al-Monitor, suggest a pattern of Russian efforts to disrupt U.S. anti-terror operations in the region. While both sides accuse each other of violating aerial norms, the recurring nature of these encounters raises concerns about the potential for more severe confrontations. This situation highlights the delicate balance of power in Syria, where geopolitical interests and military strategies from both global powers converge.
Pro-Iranian Groups and Hezbollah Evacuate Positions South of Damascus
Pro-Iran groups and Hezbollah evacuated positions in southern Damascus, Quneitra, and western Qalamoun, preparing for potential Israeli airstrikes. These groups, both Syrian and foreign, took precautionary measures, relocating and restricting movements to avoid detection. The evacuations follow recent Israeli strikes targeting military sites in Damascus and a regime brigade in Daraa. An Israeli attack on July 14 resulted in the death of a Syrian air defense member, bringing the total casualties to two, with six injured. Israel also targeted an Iranian-aligned militia headquarters and residential building in Kafr Sousa, south of Damascus.
Clashes in Daraa as Locals Pursue Hezbollah Militias
On Saturday, clashes erupted between local groups and Hezbollah-affiliated militias in the Al-Lajat area, northeast of Daraa. The fighting occurred around the village of Ib, leading to the capture and subsequent retreat of Hezbollah militia checkpoints along the Jomrah-Ib road. The conflict, initiated hours earlier, saw local groups, directed by community leaders, besiege and engage the militias without reported casualties. Tensions remain high as locals continue to pursue fleeing militia members and besiege others in the area.
Jordan Seizes 600,000 Drug Pills in Two Separate Cases
Jordanian authorities thwarted two attempts to smuggle around 600,000 drug pills into the country. In the first case, 400,000 pills were seized from two individuals planning to re-export them. In the second, 200,000 pills were found hidden in a truck, leading to the arrest of two suspects in Zarqa. Additional operations in central Badia and other regions resulted in the capture of several drug dealers and the confiscation of various narcotics. Recently, Jordanian forces also intercepted a drone carrying 3,990 Captagon pills from Syria, highlighting ongoing regional drug trafficking challenges.
Imbecilic Assad Labels Erdogan as Terrorism Supporter in Designation
In a move that’s almost sitcom-worthy, Assad has decided to play the role of the world’s moral arbiter, a dubious position for a criminal with his own extensive record of crimes. He designated Turkish President Erdogan as the top figure on the list of his newly invented commission against terrorism financing and money laundering. Following President Erdogan, Assad named former Prime Ministers Ahmet Davutoglu and Lebanon’s Saad Hariri. The list is a collection of 597 individuals and 127 entities from Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the Emirates, all accused of nefarious activities. Among them, 24 Turkish organizations are specifically categorized under this accusation.
First Among G7 Nations, Italy Appoints Ambassador to Syria
Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani announced Italy’s decision to appoint an ambassador to Syria, becoming the first G7 nation to do so since the Syrian civil war began. Italy had withdrawn its embassy staff in 2012 to protest President Bashar al-Assad’s actions against civilians. The new ambassador, Stefano Ravagnan, will assume his role soon. This move aligns with a recent request by Italy and seven other EU countries for a more active EU role in Syria. Currently, six EU countries have embassies in Damascus, while other G7 members have yet to reappoint ambassadors.
Kuwaiti Delegation Visits Damascus to Reestablish Diplomatic Ties
A Kuwaiti delegation recently visited Damascus to discuss restoring diplomatic relations between Kuwait and Syria, according to the pro-regime newspaper “Al-Watan.” The visit aimed to reestablish high-level diplomatic ties and explore business cooperation opportunities. Kuwait severed its relations with Syria in 2012 and has opposed Syria’s return to the Arab League. This visit follows Kuwait’s statement supporting Arab consensus on Syria, emphasizing the need for Syria to take steps toward reconciliation.
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★ ISRAEL & PALESTINIAN TERRITORIES
Israeli Forces Advance in Southern Gaza, Thousands Flee
Israeli tanks advanced deeper into southern Gaza, intensifying clashes with Hamas fighters. Hamas Health officials reported 66 Palestinian deaths in the past 24 hours due to Israeli shelling. The incursions targeted the towns of Qarara, Zanna, and Bani Suhaila, causing mass displacement to areas like Mawasi and Deir al-Balah. Israeli airstrikes in Khan Younis killed 15 Palestinians, while another strike in Mawasi killed five, including a four-month-old girl. The Israeli military stated these actions were in response to renewed attacks from the area.
Islamic Jihad Targets Israeli Military Site
The Palestinian Islamic Jihad’s armed wing launched an attack on a military site in the Nahal Oz settlement in southern Israel using heavy mortar shells. Additionally, the Al-Quds Brigades reported striking areas around the Israeli city of Sderot with a barrage of rockets.
Rome Talks: Pessimism in Israel Over Revised Gaza Deal
Israeli Mossad Chief David Barnea swiftly returned from Rome after presenting Israel’s revised ceasefire and prisoner exchange proposal. Prime Minister Netanyahu’s office stated the proposal, which includes Netanyahu’s stipulations, was discussed with intermediaries. Israeli officials are pessimistic about Hamas’s response, expecting a rejection. Talks involved CIA Director William Burns, Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, and Egyptian Intelligence Chief Abbas Kamel. Major sticking points include Israel’s military presence in Gaza and conditions on the Philadelphia and Netzarim Corridors. Netanyahu’s rigid stance has been blamed for impeding progress.
Lavrov Labels Netanyahu’s Hamas Elimination Goal as Unrealistic
Speaking in Malaysia after the ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in Laos, Sergey Lavrov dismissed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s goal of eliminating Hamas as “unrealistic.” Lavrov emphasized that Hamas continues to exist with substantial support, particularly in the Muslim world. Echoing similar views from the EU, US intelligence, and Israeli military officials, Lavrov’s comments underscore the perceived futility of Netanyahu’s approach. This comes after Netanyahu’s US visit, marked by efforts to demonize Hamas and garner support, which were met with significant protests.
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📌 In case you missed it,
📰 Israel’s Security and America’s Iran Policy: A Crucial Intersection
📰 THE EARLY PHOENIX July 17, 2024
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