Welcome to the Early Phoenix Middle East Reports, compiled by ACLS Research Team and Editor Rania Kisar. Share your opinion analysis with us and let your voice be heard. Email comments and suggestions to [email protected] or tweet @levantstudies

Top Headlines:

• Twelve Attacks on US Bases in Iraq and Syria, Thirteenth Turns Severe
• Russia Delivers Advanced Radars, Air Defense Systems to Strengthen Iran
• Israel 42% Stronger Than Hezbollah and Iran: Superior Technology, Intelligence, and Strategy
• Fuad Shukr: From Beirut Bombing to Missile Failures, Who Claims the $5M Reward?
• Turkish Embassy Half-Mast Tribute Hijacked by Israeli Flag-Tagging Drone

Executive Summary

From August 1 to 6, 2024, multiple significant events transpired across various conflict zones. In Israel, military strength evaluations show a 42% advantage over Hezbollah and Iran due to superior technology, intelligence, and strategic capabilities. Israeli airstrikes neutralized five Hezbollah operatives, while drones targeted northern Israel, resulting in casualties. Prime Minister Netanyahu postponed Saudi talks, and French President Macron engaged leaders to de-escalate conflict risks.

In Iraq, U.S. bases faced twelve attacks with the thirteenth causing severe damage and injuries. An American airstrike killed a Houthi drone expert near Baghdad, highlighting deep ties between Iranian-backed groups.

In Syria, Russia established a new base near U.S. forces, signaling a strategic shift, while Iranian-backed militias mobilized in response to heightened alert levels among U.S. bases. An Israeli strike targeted Syrian air defense sites in Daraa.

In Turkiye, President Erdoğan threatened intervention in Gaza but maintained oil supplies to Israel. Turkiye also faced economic impacts from an Instagram ban and diplomatic tensions from a flag-tagging drone incident at its embassy in Tel Aviv.

In Yemen, U.S. Central Command destroyed Houthi aerial systems, and Houthi forces downed an American drone over Saada. A Houthi missile attack on MV Groton near Aden was intercepted, while MASAM destroyed a Houthi underwater missile.

Iran bolstered its defenses with Russian support, faced internal chaos following Hamas leader Haniyeh’s assassination, and grappled with a severe gas shortage amid an electricity crisis.

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THE EARLY PHOENIX

After-Action Report: August 1-6

Israel 42% Stronger Than Hezbollah and Iran: Superior Technology, Intelligence, and Strategy

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Executive Briefing

An assessment of the conflict from August 1-5 indicates that Israel’s military strength is approximately 42% greater than the combined forces of Hezbollah and Iran. This conclusion is derived from analyzing key metrics such as manpower, defense technology, intelligence, operational performance, and strategic effectiveness. Israel’s military consists of around 170,000 active personnel and 465,000 reserves, with a significant technological edge provided by advanced defense systems like the Iron Dome and a fleet of F-16s and F-35s. In contrast, Hezbollah has an estimated 20,000-30,000 active fighters, and Iran has 523,000 active personnel. Israel’s operational effectiveness is demonstrated through precise airstrikes in Syria and Lebanon, which have disrupted Hezbollah and IRGC capabilities by eliminating high-value targets. The intelligence capabilities of Mossad and military intelligence units allow for effective preemptive strikes and real-time operational adjustments, further enhancing Israel’s strategic readiness through rapid mobilization and comprehensive drills. Overall, Israel’s combined effectiveness ratio of 1.42 confirms its superior military strength bolstered by technological, intelligence, and strategic advantages​.

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Operational Briefing: August 6

Israeli Airstrikes Neutralize Five Hezbollah Operatives, Drones Target Northern Israel

1. Israel Intercepts Hostile UAVs, Kills Five, and Exhibits Tactical Superiority

Following Israeli airstrikes that neutralized five Hezbollah operatives in southern Lebanon, hostile UAVs targeted strategic areas near Acre and Nahariya in northern Israel, resulting in one Israeli casualty. Reports indicate Hezbollah’s focus on a military installation between Acre and Nahariya, inflicting injuries. Hezbollah has yet to confirm its involvement in these strikes. Nahariya, situated 11 km from the Lebanese border, also experienced a UAV strike on a civilian vehicle. In Mazra’a, a drone assault critically injured one individual and moderately injured another. A fire was reported at Shiraga military base near Acre following a drone attack, with visual evidence showing smoke from the facility. The IDF identified multiple hostile UAVs crossing from Lebanon, intercepting one, with subsequent shrapnel injuring civilians south of Nahariya. Rocket and missile sirens were activated, and a false alarm was noted in Acre at 12:56 hours.

2. Netanyahu Delays Saudi Talks; Macron Engages Leaders During Rising Tensions

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has postponed normalization discussions with Saudi Arabia until after the U.S. presidential election, influenced by the potential re-election of former President Donald Trump. This strategic delay impacts Gaza ceasefire negotiations and reflects Netanyahu’s cautious approach within a volatile regional landscape. Concurrently, French President Emmanuel Macron has engaged in high-level talks with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed, addressing escalating Middle East tensions. Macron urged restraint following the assassination of Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, warning of potential Iranian retaliation against Israel. The discussions focused on preventing conflict escalation and addressing the Gaza humanitarian crisis, as the region remains on edge.

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Operational Briefing: August 5

Global Losses Surge, Israel Prepares for Imminent Full-Scale Attack

3. Iran-Israel Tensions Spark Three Trillion Loss as Volatility Soars

Global markets lost $3 trillion, with Dow dropping 1,033 points, due to weak U.S. jobs, Japan’s rate hike, and Iran-Israel tensions. The direct impact of the war between Israel and Iran includes significant disruptions in global financial markets, with increased volatility and investor shifts towards safer assets. Additionally, the conflict exacerbates regional instability, affecting oil prices and contributing to economic uncertainties in the Middle East and beyond. Alia Al-Moubayed of Jefferies International cites these factors, alongside major tech sell-offs from firms like Intel and Apple, heightening market volatility. Al-Moubayed suggested that despite the global financial uncertainty, including impacts on the Middle East’s oil and shipping sectors, investors should consider the potential for Federal Reserve rate cuts and pivot to short-term, high-yield bonds. She advised Gulf investors to favor ten-year bonds as a precaution against geopolitical risks, while maintaining a positive outlook on the prospects for market recovery.

4. IDF Drone Strike Kills Hezbollah Operatives, Downs Drones, Intercepts Rockets

The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) reported killing members of a Hezbollah cell in a drone strike in Mays al-Jabal, southern Lebanon. The operatives were allegedly operating a drone in the area when the Israeli Air Force targeted them. Hezbollah confirmed the deaths of Ali Shuqair, a member, and Muhammad Hammadi, a paramedic with the Islamic Message Scouts Association. Additionally, the IDF shot down two drones suspected to be from Lebanon near Metula and Nahariya. All rockets fired at Kiryat Shmona were intercepted by Israeli air defenses, with no reported injuries.

5. Israel Braces for Iran and Hezbollah’s Imminent Assault

Israel braces for an imminent coordinated attack from Iran and Hezbollah, prompting emergency measures across the nation. Iran’s threats to annihilate Israel and target strategic sites like Haifa port have led Israeli authorities to prepare for ballistic missile and drone strikes, potentially overwhelming air defenses. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has warned G7 foreign ministers of the potential attack, urging last-minute diplomatic pressure to prevent escalation. Israeli cities in the north are preparing for power outages and possible evacuations, with an underground command bunker in Jerusalem activated to coordinate responses. Israeli hospitals, including Beilinson, Hadassah, Sheba, Rambam, Galilee, Ziv, and Soroka, are enhancing readiness for mass casualty scenarios, conducting drills, stockpiling supplies, and fortifying facilities. 

6. Israeli General: Israel Has No Choice But to Attack With All Might

Israel readies for potential attacks by Iran and Hezbollah, bolstering defenses with U.S. support. Following a projectile incident, defense coordination is heightened. Netanyahu warns of severe retaliation, emphasizing Israel’s capabilities. Retired General Amir Avivi underscores the importance of U.S. Central Command’s assistance. Additionally, Israel unveils a new early warning system for emergencies. Amid geopolitical tensions, a Chinese-Russian-Iranian front poses further challenges, with potential attacks possibly coinciding with Tisha B’Av, a significant day in Jewish history. Calls for prayer and readiness highlight the ongoing vigilance in Israel’s defense strategy.

7. Hamas Agrees on Haniyeh’s Successor

Hamas has reached a consensus on a new leader to head its political bureau, succeeding Ismail Haniyeh. This agreement was achieved after a series of meetings held in Doha. The announcement of the new leader is pending as internal administrative matters are finalized. The identity of the consensual figure selected to lead Hamas will be disclosed soon.

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Operational Briefing: August 4 

Two Israelis Wounded, Hezbollah Strikes Foiled, IDF Retaliates

8. Two Israelis Injured, Hezbollah Members Killed, Drones Downed, Strike Fails

Hezbollah launched a drone attack near Kibbutz Ayelet HaShahar, injuring two IDF soldiers. In response, Israel conducted airstrikes in southern Lebanon, killing two Hezbollah members, Muhammad Hassan Farhat and Ali Mustafa Amr. The IDF intercepted several drones and shot down additional rockets fired from Lebanon. Concurrently, the IDF’s Kfir Brigade held drills to simulate combat in Lebanon’s mountainous regions. Hezbollah carried out at least five attacks on northern Israel, including a rocket barrage at Beit Hillel. Israeli defenses intercepted most rockets. Further Israeli actions included strikes on a Hezbollah rocket launcher in southern Lebanon, artillery fire at Odaisseh, and an unsuccessful drone attack on a motorcycle in Rab el-Thalathine. Hezbollah also claimed to have shelled an Israeli military site near Malkia, though the outcome was unclear.

9. Israel’s Defense Plans: Rapid, Unprecedented, and Preemptive Strategies

U.S. CENTCOM chief Gen. Michael Kurilla visited Israel to discuss preparations for a potential Iranian-led attack, with Israeli officials. During these discussions, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant emphasized the Israeli Air Force’s readiness for a rapid offensive response due to increasing threats from Iran and Hezbollah. Gallant highlighted the need for the IAF to be prepared for all scenarios, including a swift transition to offensive operations. The scenarios include unprecedented rocket fire, power outages lasting up to three days, water supply disruptions, telecom service interruptions, and major evacuations. The IDF warns of potential rocket payloads up to 500 kilograms, forcing evacuations to safer areas like Jerusalem. This preparation follows high-level meetings with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi, Mossad Chief David Barnea, and Shin Bet Chief Ronen Bar, who considered options for a preemptive strike on Iran, contingent on solid intelligence confirming an imminent threat. Meanwhile, IDF Northern Command chief Maj. Gen. Ori Gordin assured local leaders of readiness for potential conflict with Hezbollah. In Lebanon, the arrival of 32 tons of medical supplies from the WHO and an influx of people leaving Beirut highlight the region’s preparation for possible conflict, as many nations urge their citizens to evacuate.

10. Potential Hezbollah Retaliation Could Disrupt Israeli Mobile Networks

A report by Yedioth Ahronoth highlights Israel’s vulnerability to a potential Iranian and Hezbollah attack, which could disrupt the country’s mobile phone networks by targeting its electrical and communication infrastructure. Israel operates over 8,000 mobile network sites, with backup power lasting only two hours in the event of an outage. The Israeli government has provided ministers with satellite phones to ensure operational continuity. Mobile carriers are working to extend power backup capabilities to 12 hours, especially in northern regions. The report warns that attacks on key energy sites could severely impact electricity and mobile services.

11. Hezbollah’s Impunity and Beirut’s Non-Nuclear Blast: Regional Violence Expands

Four years have passed since the largest non-nuclear explosion in history devastated Beirut, and no one has been held accountable for the death of over 220 people and permanently injuring more than 6,500 others. Hundreds of victims’ families marked the fourth anniversary of the Beirut port explosion by gathering at the port, holding images of their loved ones, demanding accountability, and marching from Martyrs’ Square and the Beirut Fire Brigade Center. At 6:07 pm, a moment of silence was observed, reflecting their frustration over the lack of justice. 

Prospects of justice for this heinous crime continue to be paralyzed by Hezbollah’s actions, which since launching the investigation, included meticulously planned violent public gatherings and clashes with security forces, incited by Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah accusing the judge leading the investigation of political bias and issuing direct death threats to his life. This investigation, led by Judge Tarek Bitar, faced additional setbacks through legal challenges and numerous lawsuits filed by implicated ministers and Hezbollah allies, aiming to remove him from the case. Despite these pressures, Bitar was twice reinstated after being temporarily removed due to political interference. Consequently, justice remains elusive as Hezbollah’s relentless obstruction ensures the investigation is perpetually stalled​. 

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Operational Briefing: August 3

Conflict Deepens: Israel and Hezbollah Exchange Deadly Strikes

12. Assassination of Hezbollah Leader

An Israeli airstrike in Bazouriyeh resulted in the death of Ali Nazih Abdul Ali, a key figure in Hezbollah’s Southern Front. Hezbollah honored him as a “martyr on the path to Jerusalem,” and the Israeli military acknowledged their role in the strike. This assassination likely escalated subsequent actions from both sides.

13. Israeli Airstrikes on Damascus-Beirut Road

Subsequent to the assassination, an Israeli airstrike targeted a vehicle on the Damascus-Beirut road. Al-Hadath reported a drone attack on a car, and the Syrian Observatory confirmed the death of one person in this strike.

14. Drone Strike in Deir Siryan and Hezbollah’s Rocket Response

An Israeli drone strike targeted a shop in Deir Siryan, resulting in the death of 17-year-old Imad Karim and injuries to six others. Following this, and in direct retaliation to Israeli airstrikes that had also injured civilians in Kfarkela and Deir Siriane, Hezbollah escalated the conflict by launching dozens of Katyusha rockets at Beit Hillel in northern Israel. This sequence of events highlighted the ongoing tit-for-tat nature of the hostilities, further intensifying the regional tensions.

15. Iranian Embassy’s Warning

In response to these escalating tensions, the Iranian Embassy in Lebanon issued a stern warning against any aggression towards Lebanon, referencing a historic 2010 military standoff as a symbol of Lebanon’s resolve.

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Operational Briefing: August 2

Hezbollah Retaliates, Assad Strikes, Militias Mobilize

16. Hezbollah Retaliates After IDF Strike Kills Syrian Family 

Following the assassination, the IDF acknowledged the strike on Shamaa, southern Lebanon during Nasarallah’s usual pre-recorded statements. Arabic media outlets confirmed the strike killed a Syrian refugee mother and her four children in addition to five other injured Lebanese citizens. Lebanese authorities are conducting DNA tests on the deceased to ascertain the exact number of casualties from the IDF attack, with initial difficulty in body identification due to their state. 

Hezbollah retaliated with rocket launches into northern Israel, marking its first missile response since a recent high-profile assassination; all were intercepted by the Iron Dome defense system. Later, IDF fighter jets targeted a building in Ayta ash-Shab, southern Lebanon, utilized by Hezbollah operatives. During these airstrikes, Lebanese channels reported that Hezbollah activated its air defenses against the Israeli jets, which had broken the sound barrier over southern Lebanon. Concurrently, a rocket launched from Lebanon impacted an open area in Western Galilee, triggering alarms across several communities but resulting in no injuries. In response to this rocket attack, the IDF conducted artillery shelling of the launch site. 

17. Assad Strikes Back: First Military Response to Israeli Aggression

The most pivotal change that happened on Friday and received very little attention and highlight is Assad’s army response to the Israeli strikes on the Syrian village now under the control of Hezbollah and Iran. Israeli airstrikes targeted the vicinity of al-Qusayr village in the Hermel District, near the Lebanese-Syrian border, hitting Hezbollah positions, fuel tanker trucks, and other strategic locations including an airfield in northeast Qusayr. These strikes resulted in injuries to a Syrian driver. In an unprecedented move, the Assad army launched two interceptor missiles targeting Israeli aircraft engaged in operations at Dabaa Airport in northeast Qusayr, Syria, near the Lebanese borders. While there are no confirmed reports on whether these interceptors succeeded in hitting their targets, this new activity by Assad marks his first military activity against Israel.

18. Hezbollah, Iranian Militias Relocate Assets Amid Heightened Tensions

Hezbollah has evacuated key sites in Beirut’s southern suburbs, relocating military equipment outside the area, according to Al Arabiya/Al Hadath sources. Residents near Hezbollah facilities have been advised to move to safer locations. In a related development, Iranian militias in Deir Ezzor, Syria, transported two trucks loaded with weapons from Iraq, accompanied by Iraqi Hezbollah vehicles, as reported by the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. This follows the militias’ heightened state of alert and the evacuation of their headquarters in Al-Bukamal, where rocket launchers were moved to undisclosed locations.

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Operational Briefing: August 1

Nasrallah Vows Retaliation, $5M Bounty on Mastermind Shukr

19. Nasrallah Threatens Extensive Retaliation After Israel Kills Mastermind Shukr

In response to the deadly attack using the Iranian Falaq-1 missile, which tragically veered off course, killing 12 children in Majdal Shams on Monday July 29, 2024, Israel neutralized the mastermind behind the attack, Fuad Shukr. 

More than 48 hours had passed in the search for his remains in the rubble of the building before Nasrallah aired his usually pre-recorded response stating Israel had crossed the red-line and vowed destructive retaliation. Nasrallah intentionally obscured the timing, location, and nature of their planned response, suggesting coordination across fronts in Iran, Yemen, Lebanon, and Gaza. Following Nasrallah’s veiled threats, the Iranian UN spokesman confirmed that Hezbollah’s response to Shukr’s assassination will surpass the historical unwritten agreement limiting engagements to border areas, prompted by Israel’s deep strikes into Beirut.

Janoubia, a news outlet known for its critical stance towards Hezbollah, reported that in response to potential security breaches, Hezbollah has initiated a comprehensive arrest campaign within its ranks. This internal scrutiny centers on suspicions about a senior Hezbollah security official, now under house arrest, who knew the exact location of Shukr and his guest in the targeted building, where they awaited his signal for a meeting with Nasrallah.

20. Fuad Shukr: From Beirut Bombing to Missile Failures, Who Claims the $5M Reward?

Israel has disclosed that Shukr, the strategist behind the 1983 Beirut barracks bombing—the deadliest day for U.S. Marines since World War II with 241 servicemen killed—was also responsible for recent Hezbollah missile failures. The Beirut attack, executed with a truck bomb on October 23, 1983, employed an advanced explosive enhanced by gas, significantly increasing its destructive power. The U.S. government, during President Trump’s administration, formally acknowledged Fuad Shukr’s role in this historic attack in 2017, offering a $5 million reward for information leading to his capture. In a message of defiance, a large mural featuring Qassem Soleimani, Fouad Shukr, and Ismail Haniyeh was erected by Hezbollah on Beirut International Airport road, renaming the area “Tehran Road” or “Tehran Square.”

Shukr, with deep ties to Hezbollah’s leadership, has significantly influenced the group’s military strategy, playing a key role in developing and directing numerous concurrent attacks. The recent Israeli airstrike targeting Shukr marks the most significant Israeli operation against Hezbollah since the assassination of its top military commander Imad Mughniyeh in Syria by the Israeli Mossad in 2008.  According to the IDF, since October 8, Shukr has overseen Hezbollah’s military engagements against Israel, managing an array of advanced weapons including precision missiles, cruise missiles, and unmanned aerial vehicles.

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THE EARLY PHOENIX

Iran Bolsters Defenses, Faces Internal Chaos and Energy Crisis

August 1-6, 2024

★ IRAN

21. Russia Delivers Advanced Radars, Air Defense Systems to Strengthen Iran

Russia has begun supplying advanced air defense equipment and radars to Iran in response to Tehran’s request for assistance. Sergei Shoigu, Russia’s Secretary of the National Security Council and former defense minister, arrived in Tehran to deliver the equipment. Invited by his Iranian counterpart, Ali Akbar Ahmadian, Shoigu met with President Masoud Pezeshkian and senior military officials to discuss bilateral cooperation, regional issues, and security relations. Russia’s condemnation of Haniyeh’s killing was seen as a gesture of support for Iran’s stance against Israel. The visit underscores Moscow’s commitment to its strategic alliance with Iran, with Shoigu playing a key role in strengthening ties and potentially escalating tensions with Israel.

22. Jordan Acts as Mediator, Relays U.S. Message to Iran and Vice Versa

Following Egypt’s declaration to an Israeli delegation that it would not join a regional military coalition against a potential Iranian attack on Israel, President Biden called King Abdullah II of Jordan to deliver a message to Iran, emphasizing the need to avoid escalation. Subsequently, Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi visited Iran, marking the first high-level delegation from Jordan to the Islamic Republic in twenty years. Safadi delivered King Abdullah II’s message to President Masoud Pezeshkian, who condemned the assassination of Hamas leader Haniyeh but insisted that Iran is not seeking to escalate regional tensions, though it feels the need to “punish” Israel to prevent further instability. “Iran seeks to establish stability in the region, but this will only come with punishing the aggressor and creating deterrence against the adventurism of the Zionist regime,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani said Monday, adding that action from Tehran is inevitabl. Iran’s Foreign Ministry also summoned ambassadors and heads of missions in Tehran for a meeting with acting Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani on Monday to reiterate Iran’s intention to respond to Israel. Amid escalating disputes, including drug trafficking allegations by Iran-allied factions and Tehran’s direct attack on Israel, which Jordan firmly addressed, the meeting aimed to enhance relations. 

General Erik Kurilla is set to visit Jordan and several Gulf nations to strengthen military ties and regional security cooperation. This visit underlines Jordan’s strategic importance, particularly highlighted during their critical role on April 13, when they intercepted Iranian drones aimed at Israel and facilitated U.S. and Israeli defensive measures through their airspace.On Friday, the Pentagon announced it would move a fighter jet squadron to the Middle East and maintain an aircraft carrier in the region as part of steps it is taking “to mitigate the possibility of regional escalation by Iran or Iran’s partners and proxies”. 

23. Tehran Chaos Follows Assassination of Hamas Leader Haniyeh

Eyewitnesses reported the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh at his Tehran residence, highlighting significant security lapses and chaos in the Tochal mountain area. Initial IRGC claims of a “projectile from the air” were revised to confirm a short-range projectile from the Tochal mountains. An extensive investigation led to over twenty arrests, including senior intelligence officers and military officials. Experts debated the methods used, including long-distance missile, submarine, or pre-planted explosive, doubting a ballistic attack due to minimal damage. Dr. Samir Ghattas highlighted a significant breach in Iran’s national security, suggesting deep Israeli intelligence penetration. He proposed insider information was needed for an explosive device. Khaled Qadoum detailed the chaos following the assassination, while Brigadier General Ya’rab Sakhr emphasized skepticism about Iran’s responses and the contradiction in Iran’s posture despite avoiding full-scale war. Analysis included theories from Iran, Israeli authorities, and the CIA, discussing methods like the Hellfire RX-9 missile’s precision and tracking via laser guidance and mobile phone signals. 

24. Iran’s Qassem Soleimani Force: Regional Threat Unveiled

Iran has formed the ‘Qassem Soleimani Forces,’ a new military unit named after the former IRGC Quds Force leader. Comprised of 10,000 fighters from Iranian proxies, including the Houthis in Yemen and groups from Lebanon, Iraq, and Syria, this force aims to centralize Iran’s regional influence. Sources reveal that 20% of its members are Houthis, with the remainder drawn from various pro-Iranian factions. Trained in camps in Iraq and Iran, the group seeks to strengthen Iran’s ‘Axis of Resistance.’ Despite no official confirmation from Tehran, the force’s establishment indicates Iran’s ongoing strategic consolidation in the region.

25. Iran Faces Gas Shortage as Electricity Crisis Intensifies

Iran is grappling with a severe gas shortage amid a summer electricity crisis, leading to warnings of a worsening situation by winter. With gas demand expected to rise significantly, the Iranian Gas Engineering Association’s Manouchehr Daftarian urged action to address the imbalance. Iran’s gas reserves are extensive, but development has lagged, particularly in the South Pars field. Gas demand has surged due to residential and power plant needs. The government has struggled to invest adequately in gas infrastructure, leading to increasing shortages that threaten economic stability and energy security.

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THE EARLY PHOENIX

★ IRAQ

Twelve Strikes, Thirteenth Attack Turns Severe Under Team Biden

August 1-6, 2024

26. Twelve Attacks on US Bases in Iraq and Syria, Thirteenth Turns Severe

Iraqi militias targeted the Ain al-Assad U.S. base with ten missiles on August 5, causing visible damage and injuries among U.S. personnel. Iraqi forces intercepted eight Katyusha rockets, while two hit the base, marking the most significant damage out of twelve attacks since June 6, according to Arabic media. The strikes emanated from the Haditha district, a recurrent launch point for previous assaults on the base. At least five U.S. personnel sustained injuries in a rocket attack on the Ain al-Assad airbase in western Iraq. Two Katyusha rockets struck the base, resulting in one American being seriously wounded. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant condemned the rocket attack by Iranian proxies on Al-Asad Airbase, calling it a ‘dangerous escalation.’ Statements from the White House in response to this latest attack emphasized that measures to defend U.S. personnel and respond to any assaults will be executed at a time and place of their choosing, without reference to the twelve previous attacks. Meanwhile and ironically, Iraq’s Federal Supreme Court dismissed a lawsuit to expel U.S. forces, citing lack of jurisdiction. The lawsuit sought to invalidate the approval for U.S. forces’ presence and demanded compensation for damages since 2009. Despite the dismissal, discussions about transitioning the international coalition’s mission, led by the U.S. against ISIS, continue.

27. U.S. Airstrike Kills Houthi Drone Expert Near Baghdad

The U.S. airstrike on July 30 in Musayib, Iraq, killed Hussein Abdullah Mastoor al-Shabal, a Houthi drone specialist, highlighting deep ties among Iranian-backed militant groups in the Middle East. The strike, targeting militants preparing an attack on U.S. forces, was the first American operation in Iraq in months since the Israel-Hamas conflict began in October. Four Kataib Hezbollah members were also killed, though the group claimed they were conducting drone experiments and protecting religious pilgrims. Yemen’s Houthi group confirmed the death of al-Shabal, a drone expert from Maran in Saada province, in the U.S. strike on a drone facility operated by the Iran-aligned Iraqi Kataib Hezbollah, underscoring the Houthis’ strong ties with Iranian-backed groups.

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THE EARLY PHOENIX

★ SYRIA

Russia And Iran Bolster Forces In Syria, Preparing For War

August 1-6, 2024

28. Russian Base Near US Forces in Ayn al-Arab Signals Strategic Shift

Russian forces have established a new military base in Ayn al-Arab (Kobani), northeastern Aleppo, close to the Syrian-Turkish border. This base is strategically located 36 minutes driving distance,  18.39 miles southwest of an American base, highlighting the close proximity and potential for direct contact between Russian and U.S. military forces in the region. 

The establishment of this base is part of a broader effort by Russia to monitor hostilities and consolidate its influence in the resource-rich area east of the Euphrates River, under the control of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). The base’s location in Ayn al-Arab, an area with significant agricultural and oil resources, enhances Russia’s strategic presence.

Notably, this new Russian base occupies the same location as former American bases that were evacuated during Turkey’s Operation Peace Spring in 2019. The U.S. forces had previously vacated these bases, including Sarrin and Sabit, allowing Russian forces to move in and establish their presence. During the 2019 evacuation of U.S. bases in northern Syria, significant fortifications such as Hesco barriers, tents, and other defensive structures were left largely intact, providing substantial infrastructure for occupying forces. While sensitive equipment was removed or destroyed, other military assets like vehicles, ammunition, and logistical supplies remained, posing a risk of falling into enemy hands. The evacuated bases, including those with airstrips and logistics hubs like Tal Baydar and Shadadi, retained significant operational capabilities. This hasty withdrawal created a strategic vacuum quickly filled by Russian and Syrian forces, establishing their presence and reinforcing their strategic footprint in the region. The U.S. exit thus resulted in a notable shift in regional control and power dynamics.

Since 2019, Russia has taken control of at least five former U.S. military bases in Syria. Initially, three bases were reported to have been taken by Russian forces in 2019, including those near Raqqa, Qamishli, and Tabqa. Following these, Russia also took over additional bases in Manbij and other locations in northern Syria as U.S. forces withdrew under orders from the Trump administration.

29. Iranian-Backed Militias Mobilize in Eastern Syria as US Forces Heighten Alert

Significant movements by Iranian-backed militias in Deir Ezzor’s Al-Mayadeen and Al-Bukamal deserts have prompted heightened alert from US bases. Supported by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, these militias have repositioned rocket launchers, triggering vigilance at US installations against potential missile or drone attacks. Recent reports indicate reduced activity at key militia headquarters in Al Bukamal, with top commanders absent and a significant meeting canceled. Commanders like “Hajj Askar ” are relocating to evade targeting. Additionally, Iranian militias halted a weapons shipment from Iraq to Syria due to increased drone surveillance, opting to return the shipment to storage facilities in Al-Qaim, Iraq. 

30. Israeli Strike on Syrian Air Defense in Daraa

Israeli forces executed a precision strike targeting Syrian army air defense sites in Daraa province, southern Syria, on August 5. The operation focused on Tel al-Jaibah, an air defense base, and Tel Umm Horan in western Daraa. This strike follows heightened regional tensions and a vow of retaliation by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for a recent rocket attack on Majdal Shams, attributed to Hezbollah. Despite the Syrian forces’ attempt to counter the assault with anti-aircraft defenses, the strike did not result in casualties.

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THE EARLY PHOENIX

Erdoğan’s Threats, Instagram Ban Costs, and Embassy Flag-Tagging Incident

August 1-6, 2024

★ TURKIYE

31. Erdoğan Threatens Intervention in Israel Over Gaza Conflict But Maintains Oil Supplies

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan threatened intervention in Israel’s Gaza conflict on July 28, likening potential action to Turkish involvement in Karabakh and Libya. Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz compared Erdoğan to Saddam Hussein, urging NATO to expel Turkiye. Turkiye’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs likened Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to Adolf Hitler. Despite Erdoğan’s statements, Turkish journalist Metin Cihan highlighted continued oil supplies to Israel via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, undercutting Erdoğan’s threats. Domestically, Erdoğan’s rhetoric seeks to bolster support from his conservative base, with strong public backing for Palestine.

32. Instagram Ban Costs Turkiye $27 Million Daily, Erdoğan Accuses ‘Digital Fascism’

Turkiye’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan condemned social media as “digital fascism” after blocking Instagram on August 2, resulting in daily losses of $27 million for Turkiye’s e-commerce sector. The ban followed Instagram’s removal of posts expressing condolences for Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh’s death. Erdoğan criticized the platform for allegedly censoring “Palestinian martyrs” and claimed social media suppresses voices critical of Israel. Turkish officials are in discussions with Instagram to restore access and mitigate the financial impact.

33. Turkish Embassy Half-Mast Tribute Hijacked by Israeli Flag-Tagging Drone

Turkiye’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan declared a day of mourning for slain Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, leading to Turkish embassies, including in Tel Aviv, lowering their flags to half-mast, sparking anger amongst the Israeli community. In response, a Ramat Gan resident flew a drone carrying an Israeli flag over the Turkish embassy in Tel Aviv on August 2, 2024. This act of protest drew a complaint from Turkish Ambassador Şakir Özkan Torunlar, currently in Ankara, asserting that the drone violated Turkiye’s sovereignty and diplomatic immunity. The incident has further strained relations between Turkiye and Israel, exacerbating already high tensions due to recent threats and inflammatory statements from both sides.

34. Egypt and Turkiye Unite to De-Escalate Gaza Conflict

Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty and Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan met in Cairo to discuss preventing the escalation of Israel’s war in Gaza into a broader regional conflict. Both ministers emphasized the need for collective action to mitigate tensions and condemned the use of assassination tactics and breaches of sovereignty. They also addressed issues in Libya, Sudan, the Red Sea, and Yemen. Fidan highlighted Turkiye’s involvement in the International Court of Justice regarding Israel’s actions and stressed the importance of establishing a Palestinian state for Middle Eastern peace. This visit marks a significant step towards restoring diplomatic relations between Egypt and Turkiye after years of tension.

35. Erdoğan Persuades Pope Francis to Address Olympic Controversy

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, known for his political acumen, achieved a significant diplomatic feat by convincing Pope Francis to address a controversy surrounding the opening ceremony of the Paris Olympics. Despite initial reluctance, the Pope spoke out eight days after the event, highlighting Erdoğan’s influence and ability to shape international discourse. This move adds to Erdoğan’s reputation as a formidable political operator, showcasing his ability to sway even the highest religious authorities.

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THE EARLY PHOENIX

Houthis Down U.S. Drone, Strike Groton, Hostages Suffer Illness

Iran’s Houthi Front Situation Recap Report

August 1-6, 2024

36. CENTCOM Destroys Houthi Uncrewed Systems

In the past 24 hours, U.S. Central Command forces successfully destroyed three Iranian-backed Houthi uncrewed aerial systems launched from Yemen over the Gulf of Aden, one in a Houthi-controlled area, and one Houthi uncrewed surface vessel, aerial vehicle, and anti-ship ballistic missile in the Red Sea. These actions neutralized imminent threats to U.S. and coalition forces and merchant vessels. 

37. Houthi Forces Shoot Down American MQ-9 Drone Over Saada

Houthi-aligned forces in Yemen reported the successful engagement and neutralization of an American MQ-9 Reaper UAV over Saada province. Utilizing a domestically manufactured surface-to-air missile system, the Houthi air defense units achieved a direct hit on the high-value target. Brigadier General Yahya Sarie, the military spokesman, confirmed the downing marks the seventh MQ-9 drone eliminated as part of their ongoing operation, “Promised Conquest and the Holy Jihad,” conducted in support of Palestinian forces in Gaza.

38. Houthis Target MV Groton Near Aden; Vessel Diverts to Djibouti

A commercial vessel, the Liberia-flagged MV Groton, was struck by Houthi ballistic missiles off Yemen, marking the first attack on shipping lanes in two weeks. The vessel, en route from Dubai to Jeddah, was hit by a missile 125 nautical miles east of Aden, causing minor damage without any water ingress or oil spills. The Joint Maritime Information Centre confirmed the crew’s safety and the ship’s diversion to a nearby port. This incident follows a pattern of Houthi aggression that has targeted over 70 ships since November, significantly disrupting global trade routes. All crew members were reported safe, with no fires, water leaks, or oil spills.

39. Explosion Rocks Hodeidah Oil Tank Post-Israeli Airstrikes

An oil tank exploded today at Hodeidah port in Yemen, a week after Israeli airstrikes targeted the area. Tank No. 38 ignited, causing flames to rise, just two days after fires from the initial attacks were extinguished. The Israeli raids aimed at Houthi military targets were in response to recent attacks against Israel. The bombing caused significant damage, burning most of the port’s fuel tanks, which took five days to control. Since the Gaza war began, Houthis have targeted Israeli-linked cargo ships in the Red Sea, prompting a US-led coalition to conduct retaliatory airstrikes against Houthi sites in Yemen.

40. MASAM Destroys Houthi Underwater Missile Off Bab al-Mandab

The Saudi Project for Clearing Yemeni Lands of Mines (MASAM) announced the successful destruction of an unexploded Houthi missile found underwater in the Al-Ardi area off the Bab al-Mandab coast. The explosion, conducted at a depth of nine meters, is the first operation of its kind by MASAM. The missile posed a threat to fishermen and divers. Prompted by a report from local fishermen, MASAM’s team took immediate action to neutralize the danger, ensuring the safety of the marine environment. Additionally, MASAM destroyed 26 pieces of explosive materials, including anti-tank mines and various shells, in Jabal al-Nar, Al-Mokha District.

41. USS Abraham Lincoln Steams Towards Red Sea

The USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) is en route to the Red Sea to relieve the USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN-71) as part of the U.S. Navy’s carrier rotations in the Middle East. This move follows increased regional tensions, including missile attacks by the Houthis. The deployment highlights the U.S. Navy’s struggle to maintain consistent carrier presence due to stretched resources. 

42. Three Filipino Seafarers in Yemen Suffer Malaria Amid Detention

The Philippines’ Department of Migrant Workers is striving to free 17 Filipino crew members held by the Houthis in Yemen for 261 days, with three recently hospitalized due to malaria. Iran has also detained various ships in the Strait of Hormuz over the past year, with crews held for months. The last three Filipinos on the MSC Aries containership have returned home after three months in Iran. The International Chamber of Shipping condemns these detentions as violations of international law and fundamental principles of freedom of navigation.

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📌 In case you missed it,

📰  THE EARLY PHOENIX August 1, 2024

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