THE EARLY PHOENIX
MENA Intelligence Daily Reports
Sept 10, 2024
★ ISRAEL & PALESTINIAN TERRITORIES
IDF Strikes Hamas Command Center in Gaza’s Al Farouq Mosque
The IDF launched a precision strike on Hamas’ command center inside Gaza’s Al Farouq Mosque in the Bureij area. Hamas reportedly used the mosque, destroyed in March, for terror attacks. Prior to the strike, the IDF implemented measures to minimize civilian harm, including precise munitions and intelligence from the Military Intelligence Directorate and Shin Bet. The mosque, previously destroyed in 2014, served as a Hamas staging ground during the Gaza War, according to the Meir Amit Center.
Israel Says It Struck 3 Hamas Commanders in Gaza Camp
The IDF hit three senior Hamas commanders in southern Gaza, killing at least 19 Palestinians. The airstrike targeted a command room in the al-Mawasi region near Khan Younis. The commanders, Samer Abu Daqqa, Osama Tabash, and Ayman Mabhouh, were involved in recent attacks, including the October 7 massacre. The IDF stated they were responsible for planning and executing terror plots against Israeli forces and civilians.
Israel Says Hamas as Military Force in Gaza is Gone
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant announced that Hamas no longer operates as a military force in Gaza after Israel’s 11-month campaign. The IDF is now shifting focus to northern Israel, preparing for a potential ground offensive. Gallant warned that the opportunity for a hostage-ceasefire deal is closing, though conditions are favorable for a six-week pause to release hostages. However, a permanent end to the fighting remains uncertain as Hamas continues guerrilla warfare.
Israel Arrests Dozens in Smuggling and Bribery Case at Ashdod Port
Israeli police arrested dozens after a four-year undercover operation by agent “Jack Sparrow” exposed smuggling, bribery, and money laundering schemes at Ashdod Port. The investigation revealed illegal shipments, including drugs, weapons, and counterfeit goods, involving customs officials and importers. Authorities seized over a million shekels, luxury cars, and other assets. The suspects, some linked to criminal organizations, are being questioned for serious financial crimes and will face further legal proceedings.
Israeli Soldiers Injured Stopping Smugglers, Egypt Denies Security Incidents
Israeli soldiers were injured by a vehicle while trying to stop drug smuggling at the Egypt border. The army reported gunfire and a speeding vehicle aimed at their forces, leading to a pursuit and search of the area. Earlier this year, similar incidents occurred, including one where an Egyptian policeman killed three Israeli soldiers. Egypt countered Israeli media reports, stating no security incidents occurred at the border. The gunfire exchange involved Israeli border guards targeting smugglers in the Negev Desert, unrelated to previous altercations in Taba.
Israel’s Budget Deficit Reaches 8.3% of GDP in August
Israel’s Ministry of Finance reported a 12.1 billion shekel ($3.24 billion) deficit in August, raising the 12-month deficit to 8.3% of GDP, up from 8.0% in July, exceeding the 2024 target of 6.6%. War-related spending since October reached 97 billion shekels. The deficit is expected to rise further in Q3 before stabilizing. Tax revenues grew 8.1% in August and increased 1.9% year-to-date.
Israel Says Turkish-American Activist Killed Unintentionally in Riot
An internal IDF inquiry concluded that Turkish-American activist Aysenur Ezgi Eygi, 26, was unintentionally hit during a riot at Beita Junction. Soldiers were targeting a “key instigator” of the unrest, not Eygi. She was likely struck indirectly by military fire. Israel has requested an autopsy to further investigate the circumstances surrounding her death.
Israel Confirms Accidental Killing of Hostages in Gaza City Strike
The IDF confirmed it mistakenly killed three Israeli hostages in a December airstrike targeting Hamas Brigade Chief Ahmed An-Dur. Initially, five hostage bodies were found in a large underground tunnel near Jabalia, three of which were tied to this incident. Although Channel 12 reported the IDF informed the families earlier, the military withheld a public announcement. The tunnel, used by Hamas, contained command centers, medical stations, and weapons production rooms, making the search complex.
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★ ISRAEL-HEZBOLLAH WAR
Israel Army Eliminates Hezbollah Commander in Radwan Unit
The Israeli army announced the elimination of Mohammed Qassem Al-Shaer, a commander in Hezbollah’s Radwan Unit, responsible for planning attacks against Israel. This marks a significant blow to Hezbollah’s capabilities. The Israeli army also conducted artillery strikes on Hezbollah positions in Suwana and Aita al-Shaab, as part of its ongoing efforts to neutralize threats from Lebanon towards Israel’s northern border, enhancing security.
Israel Airstrikes Continue, 12 Injured in Nabatieh
Israeli airstrikes hit multiple areas in southern Lebanon, including Tyre, Naqoura, and Nabatieh. A residential building in Nabatieh was struck by three missiles, injuring 12 civilians and causing severe damage to nearby properties. Other airstrikes targeted Bayt al-Sayyad, al-Biyada, and Kfarkila, with artillery strikes hitting Naqoura. Hezbollah responded by shelling Israeli positions in Kfar Shuba. Authorities reported one injury near Jwaya as Israeli strikes continued in the region.
Hezbollah’s Extensive Tunnel Network Presents Significant Threat to Israel
Hezbollah has developed an extensive underground tunnel system in southern Lebanon since the 2006 war with Israel. Spanning over 100 miles, the tunnels are built for both offensive and defensive purposes. Some tunnels are equipped with command centers, weapon depots, and missile launch platforms, allowing Hezbollah to operate covertly and sustain prolonged engagements with Israel. Israeli operations, such as the 2018 Northern Shield, uncovered six tunnels leading into Israeli territory. Experts suggest that Hezbollah’s tunnel system, reportedly developed with support from Iran and North Korea, represents a strategic advantage in any future conflict.
Lebanon Faces Economic Challenges Amid FATF Grey Listing Threat
Lebanon risks being added to the FATF gray list, further straining its economy. This would complicate banking transactions and increase costs, especially with Lebanon’s growing cash economy since the 2019 crisis. Efforts to curb this include promoting fresh funds accounts and electronic payments, but comprehensive banking reforms are essential.
Lebanon Seeks Indirect Negotiations to End War with Israel
Lebanon expressed readiness for indirect negotiations with Israel to secure a ceasefire and stop the ongoing conflict with Hezbollah. Prime Minister Najib Mikati urged the UN Security Council to take stronger actions against Israeli attacks. Foreign Minister Abdullah Bouhabib emphasized the government’s willingness for talks.
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★ IRAN
Khamenei Suggests Nasrallah Tactical Withdrawal Following Heavy Losses
Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei has reportedly signaled Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah to consider a tactical withdrawal after significant losses sustained by Iranian and Hezbollah forces. This comes after unprecedented airstrikes on key weapons bases in Syria, with Iran proposing a 10-kilometer retreat from Lebanon’s border and 40 kilometers from the Golan Heights. These military setbacks have prompted Iran to rethink its position in the region, potentially shifting strategies in response to the losses endured over the past year.
Iran Faces European Sanctions and Ukraine’s Warning Over Missile Transfers
France, Germany, and the UK plan sanctions against Iran for supplying ballistic missiles to Russia, with a focus on targeting Iran Air for its role in facilitating these shipments. European governments condemned Iran’s missile transfers as a direct threat to security and a destabilizing force in global relations. Ukraine has also summoned Iran’s charge d’affaires to protest reported missile transfers, prompting diplomatic action. Despite Iran denying involvement, Ukrainian and U.S. officials have expressed growing concerns over Iran’s military cooperation with Russia, further complicating the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Iran Rejects PGCC’s Claims on Trio Islands, Oil Field, Nuclear Program
Iran firmly rejected the PGCC’s claims on the trio islands, Arash oil field, and peaceful nuclear activities during recent discussions. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Nasser Kanaani reiterated the islands of Abu Musa, Greater Tunb, and Lesser Tunb are Iran’s inseparable territory. Kanaani also rejected Kuwait’s one-sided claims on the Arash gas field, stressing these statements lack legal validity or entitlement.Iran dismissed PGCC’s nuclear concerns, emphasizing its compliance with international regulations and peaceful use of nuclear energy in its programs.Urging regional cooperation, Iran called for constructive dialogue while urging the PGCC to avoid statements harming regional peace and collaboration.
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★ Turkiye
Turkish Minister Calls for Arab Unity Against Israeli Aggression
Türkiye received its first invitation in 13 years to the Arab League’s foreign minister council, marking restored diplomatic engagement. Turkey’s Foreign Minister urged Arab nations to unite against Israel’s actions in Gaza and the West Bank, condemning collective punishment and human rights violations. He emphasized halting trade with Israel and supporting legal efforts against its war crimes, calling for international justice. He also highlighted Turkey’s commitment to aiding Palestinians through humanitarian support. Stressing the importance of cooperation, the minister praised Qatar and Egypt for their ceasefire efforts. He called for stronger political, economic, and military collaboration within the Arab-Turkish framework for regional stability.
US-Greek Cypriot Defense Pact Likely to Spark Turkish Backlash
The United States and the Greek Cypriot administration have signed a defense cooperation roadmap, intensifying military ties between the two sides.This agreement, signed by Greek Cypriot Defense Minister Vassilis Palmas and US official Celeste Wallander, took place in Lefkosa’s Greek-administered sector.The deal is expected to provoke a sharp response from Turkiye, which has consistently criticized US-Greek Cypriot defense collaborations.While Ankara has not yet responded, Turkiye previously condemned similar moves, viewing them as threats to regional stability.This agreement marks the latest in a series of defense partnerships likely to strain relations between Turkiye and the involved parties.
Turkiye Rejects EU’s Operation Irini Inspection of Ship Bound for Libya Again
Turkiye has once again refused the European naval operation “Irini” permission to inspect one of its ships heading to Libya. Operation Irini, established in 2020, requested to inspect the vessel “MV Matilda A” under UN Security Council Resolution 2292, which Turkiye denied. The operation, aimed at enforcing the arms embargo on Libya, has faced 12 Turkish refusals to inspect its vessels heading to western Libya. Turkiye accuses Operation Irini of blocking support to Libya’s Government of National Unity, claiming it favors the Libyan National Army. Irini has shared multiple reports with the UN on arms embargo violations and potential petroleum smuggling, implicating various parties in the conflict.
Turkish Police Detain 27 Suspected Daesh Terrorists in Nationwide Operation
Turkish police have detained 27 suspected Daesh members in 13 cities, including Istanbul and Konya, as part of counterterrorism efforts.The Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office in Izmir issued arrest warrants for 30 suspects, with three still being actively pursued.This operation follows previous mass arrests, including 283 suspects last month and 147 Daesh affiliates detained in March across Türkiye.Since Daesh’s 2019 collapse, some members have settled in Türkiye, attempting to rebuild networks despite intensified counterterrorism operations.Turkish authorities, through the National Intelligence Organization, disrupted Daesh’s recruitment, funding, and logistics networks, significantly weakening the group’s activities.
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★ EGYPT
Inflation in Egyptian Cities Hits 26.2% in August
Inflation in Egyptian cities rose to 26.2% in August, the first increase in five months, surpassing July’s 25.7%. Monthly inflation accelerated to 2.1% in August, up from 0.4% in July. Recent government price hikes on fuel, train, and metro tickets led to increased costs for many goods and services.
Egypt Requires Israeli Approval for Abbas’s Gaza Visit
Egypt will allow President Abbas to enter Gaza via Rafah but requires Israeli approval for the visit, reports Israeli media. The Palestinian Authority has requested assistance from both Israel and Egypt to facilitate Abbas’s entry into Gaza. This condition reflects ongoing diplomatic negotiations between the involved parties.
AngloGold Acquires Centamin: $2.5 Billion Deal for Sukari Mine
AngloGold Ashanti has finalized a deal to acquire Centamin, valuing the company at approximately $2.5 billion. The acquisition gives AngloGold control of Egypt’s Sukari Mine, renowned as one of the world’s top gold producers. Sukari Mine has experienced operational and political issues since the uprising that led to the fall of Hosni Mubarak.
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★ SYRIA
Theatrical Walkout by Assad’s Minister Highlights Contradictory Diplomacy
Assad’s Minister Faisal Mekdad walked out during Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan‘s speech at the Arab League meeting, symbolizing opposition to Turkiye’s presence in Syria’s northwest. Despite this orchestrated gesture, Assad had approved Turkiye’s participation, underscoring the regime’s contradictory stance. Before his walkout, Mekdad reportedly supported Turkish President Erdogan’s proposal for a solidarity axis against Israel, on the condition that Turkiye withdraw from Syrian and Iraqi territories. However, this statement, sourced from Russian media, is questionable, adding further complexity to Assad’s diplomatic positioning. Mekdad also called for Arab League reform during a meeting with Secretary-General Ahmed Aboul Gheit, despite representing a regime notorious for corruption and human rights abuses. While Syria faces humanitarian crises, Assad’s government remains focused on rebuilding its regional standing rather than addressing its citizens’ needs.
57 Dead in Israeli Strikes on Syria, Including IRGC, Hezbollah
On September 9, 2024, 15 Israeli airstrikes on the Masyaf region near Hama caused significant destruction to key military sites. These sites were critical to Iran and Hezbollah. At least 57 deaths were reported, including members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and Hezbollah fighters. An Assad regime security official stated that the target was a scientific research center, where Iranian officers have worked for six years. Their focus has been on developing short- and medium-range precision missiles and drones, with no connection to chemical weapons production.
Israeli Surveillance, Airstrikes Disrupt Hezbollah’s Weapon Operations in Syria
Hezbollah’s ability to transport weapons from warehouses near the Syrian-Lebanese border has been severely restricted due to intense Israeli surveillance. Israel has deployed ground agents in Syria to closely monitor Hezbollah’s movements, preventing any transfer of arms to Lebanon.
SDF Accuses Syrian Regime, Turkiye of “Collusion” in Deir ez-Zor Attacks
The Syrian Democratic Forces accused the Syrian regime and Turkiye of “colluding” in attacks on its forces in Deir ez-Zor.SDF leadership claimed these attacks aim to sow division among the local population, destabilizing the region’s fragile balance of power.Despite these efforts, the SDF emphasized that local communities’ unity and resistance thwarted the regime and Turkiye’s attempts at division.These accusations were made during meetings in Aleppo’s countryside, where the SDF discussed the ongoing military escalation in northern Syria.Led by General Commander Mazloum Abdi, the meetings addressed the recent Deir ez-Zor attacks and growing tensions in northern Syria.
Saudi Reopens Embassy in Damascus, Shifting Diplomatic Ties with Syria
Saudi Arabia has reopened its embassy in Damascus, signaling a diplomatic shift after 12 years of severed relations with the Assad regime. The move follows Assad’s participation in recent Arab League summits in Jeddah and Riyadh. Saudi Chargé d’Affaires Abdullah Al-Harees emphasized the importance of strengthening bilateral relations and supporting Arab initiatives. This re-engagement presents a challenge for the U.S., which continues to enforce the Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act and the Assad Regime Anti-Normalization Act. Saudi Arabia’s growing diplomatic ties with Syria could undermine U.S. efforts to isolate the Assad regime and hold it accountable for past abuses.
Five Years After Trump Administration’s Intervention, Hostage Publishes His Story
In 2019, American traveler Sam Goodwin was held hostage by the Assad regime while visiting Syria, accused of espionage. After spending 62 days in Syrian prisons, Goodwin’s release was secured through diplomatic efforts led by the Trump administration and Lebanese General Abbas Ibrahim. The Trump administration had made hostage recovery a priority, and this case became a key example of their efforts. Now, five years later, Goodwin shares his incredible ordeal in his book, Saving Sam. The book details his harrowing experience in captivity and highlights the role his family and diplomatic channels played in his eventual rescue.
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★ IRAQ
Iraq Strengthens Energy Sector But Faces Financial Uncertainty
Iraq exported 108 million barrels of oil in August, averaging 3.47 million barrels per day, highlighting its global energy significance. The country is also focusing on boosting its electricity infrastructure, with new combined cycle projects expected to save $3 billion annually and add 4,000 megawatts. Despite these initiatives, financial advisor Midhir Saleh warns of a potential crisis in 2025 due to falling oil prices, threatening Iraq’s economic stability. Iraq’s reliance on oil revenues and energy projects underscores the need for fiscal discipline and long-term planning to avoid future financial instability.
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★ YEMEN
Lenderking Highlights Yemen Crisis, Urges Cooperation
U.S. Special Envoy for Yemen, Tim Lenderking, raised alarm over the deteriorating situation in Yemen during a recent briefing. He stressed the urgency of addressing the environmental risks posed by the fire on the tanker carrying one million barrels of oil, drawing comparisons to last year’s successful international efforts to prevent a spill from the Safer tanker. Lenderking condemned the Houthis’ reckless attacks on vessels in the Red Sea, allegedly in support of Gaza, while emphasizing the need for Houthi cooperation in addressing this crisis. He called for immediate international collaboration to contain the fire, highlighting the broader implications for Yemen’s fishing industry, navigation, and regional stability. Lenderking stated strong talks are underway with China to de-escalate Yemen’s situation. Washington, Beijing, and Moscow agree there is no military solution for Yemen’s conflict.
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★ Gulf
Saudi-Russian Talks Discuss Regional Cooperation and Gaza Conflict
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Riyadh to discuss regional developments and agreements. Lavrov invited the Crown Prince to attend the BRICS Summit in Kazan this October. Lavrov also praised Gulf countries’ stance on Ukraine during the seventh GCC-Russia strategic dialogue. Both sides condemned the failure of international efforts to halt the Gaza war, urging global partners to exert pressure for a ceasefire.
Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 Projects Surpass One Trillion Dollars
Saudi Arabia launched $1.3 trillion in real estate and infrastructure projects over eight years, aiming to diversify its economy. Major developments include NEOM city on the Red Sea coast, with $28.7 billion invested in “The Line” project. Riyadh secured $35 billion in contracts, preparing for Expo 2030 and FIFA 2034. These projects aim to attract $100 billion in foreign investments by 2030, supporting economic diversification, housing, and tourism, positioning Saudi Arabia as a global development leader.
Saudi Industrial Production Index Rises by 1.6 Percent in July
Saudi Arabia’s industrial production index grew by 1.6% in July 2023, driven by increases in manufacturing, electricity, gas, steam, water supply, and waste management. Manufacturing saw a 4.6% rise, while mining and quarrying declined by 0.8%.
Saudi Arabia Launches New Maritime Link with India
Saudi Arabia launched a new shipping route connecting Jeddah with India’s Mundra and Nhava Sheva ports, operated by Folk Maritime Services. The service, starting in September, aims to improve trade between the two nations, particularly in goods like petrochemicals. The shipping route, managed by two vessels, reduces transit time to ten days, further solidifying Saudi Arabia’s position as India’s fourth-largest trading partner. This route enhances trade links between Saudi Arabia and India, boosting economic cooperation.
Qatar-Germany Trade Reaches 7.1 Billion Qatari Riyals
Sheikh Khalifa bin Jassim Al Thani praised the growth in Qatar-Germany trade, reaching 7.1 billion Qatari riyals (€1.8 billion) in 2023, a 4.4% increase from 2022. Arab-German economic relations also saw a 20% boost, surpassing €60 billion. The Qatar Chamber delegation, led by Sheikh Khalifa, participated in a Berlin meeting to discuss enhancing trade and industrial cooperation between Arab countries and Germany, focusing on strengthening economic ties and boosting trade volumes.
QatarEnergy Launches First Conventional-Sized LNG Carrier
QatarEnergy launched its first conventional-sized LNG carrier, named Rex Tillerson, at Shanghai’s Hudong-Zhonghua shipyard. A second carrier, Umm Ghuwailina, was also named during the ceremony. These vessels are part of 12 conventional-sized LNG carriers in QatarEnergy’s new fleet. The company emphasized its commitment to meeting the growing demand for cleaner energy globally. The ships will be delivered ahead of schedule, supporting QatarEnergy’s expanding global LNG trade as part of its broader fleet expansion efforts.
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Early Phoenix Edition Sept 9, 2024
Major Conflicts Loom, Jordanian Kills Three, WH Doubts Peace Before 2025
Iran Sends Ballistics To Russia, Plots to Kill Jews in Europe, and Meddles in U.S. Elections
