THE EARLY PHOENIX
August 26, 2024
Libya
Libya Halts Oil Production Amid Crisis, Driving Global Oil Prices Up Over 2%
Oil prices surged over 2% on Monday after Libya’s Eastern government in Benghazi announced the closure of all oil fields. This move, including the declaration of “force majeure” on oil facilities, halted production and exports indefinitely, leading to a significant spike in crude prices globally. The closure comes after escalating tensions between Libya’s two rival governments: one in Tripoli, led by UN-recognized Abdelhamid Dbeibeh, and another in Benghazi, led by Osama Hammad and supported by Khalifa Haftar. The decision to shut down oil fields is directly linked to recent conflicts with the Central Bank of Libya, which intensified after the Presidential Council’s attempt to replace the Central Bank governor—a move rejected by Parliament. The escalating Middle East tensions and Libya’s internal crisis have raised concerns about disruptions in regional oil supplies, while expectations of a potential U.S. interest rate cut further boosted global economic outlooks and fuel demand forecasts.
Libya’s Central Bank Closed After Escalating Political Rifts
Libyan Central Bank Governor Al-Siddiq Al-Kabir filed a complaint, accusing a group linked to the Presidential Council of raiding the bank during a controversial leadership transfer. Despite this, a source from the Presidential Council stated that the bank’s management transfer to the new board was completed smoothly and peacefully. The source noted that a deputy governor will be appointed under Article 18 of Law 1 of 2005 until a new governor is elected transparently. However, the conflict over the Central Bank’s leadership escalated when a Presidential Council committee, led by Mohamed Menfi and backed by armed forces, installed Mohamed Al-Shukri as the new governor. This move contradicts Parliament’s decision to retain Al-Siddiq Al-Kabir, who refuses to relinquish control. The economic impact has been swift, with most Libyan banks halting services across the country. The Libyan Foreign Bank, responsible for managing oil revenues before transferring them to the Central Bank, has received warnings from international institutions. These warnings urge a suspension of transactions with Libya until the leadership dispute is resolved, raising fears of Libya’s economic isolation.
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EGYPT
Egypt’s Gaza Talks End Without Agreement
Egyptian security sources confirmed that recent Gaza talks in Cairo ended without any agreement or resolution between the parties involved. Both Hamas and Israel rejected several proposed solutions offered by mediators during the discussions. U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan announced ongoing “intensive” efforts in Cairo to secure a ceasefire agreement. Despite the lack of progress, the U.S. remains committed to achieving a resolution and stabilizing the region.
Egypt and Israel Agree on Troop Withdrawal
Egypt and Israel agreed on an Israeli troop withdrawal from areas near civilian populations, as reported by Israeli media. While Israel doubts Hamas will agree to the deal, it remains open to further negotiations under U.S. pressure. The U.S. aims to finalize the agreement to prevent further escalation and avoid a larger regional conflict. This agreement is part of broader diplomatic efforts to address tensions and stabilize the Middle East.
Egypt’s President Sisi and Brown Discuss Middle East Developments and Stability
Egyptian President Sisi emphasized the need for urgent international intervention to prevent further escalation in the Middle East. During his meeting with the U.S. military leader, Sisi warned against opening a new front in Lebanon. They discussed coordinated actions by Egypt, the U.S., and Qatar to secure a Gaza ceasefire agreement. Sisi also highlighted the importance of prisoner exchanges for advancing regional stability and reducing the risk of escalating violence.
Egypt Reduces Budget Deficit to 3.6% of GDP
Egypt has reduced its budget deficit to 3.6% of GDP, as announced by Finance Minister Ahmed Kouchouk during a recent meeting. Kouchouk discussed this achievement with British Ambassador Gareth Bayley in Cairo, highlighting the government’s efforts to attract private investment. These efforts have significantly stabilized the economy, contributing to a primary surplus of 6.1% for the fiscal year ending June 2024. Revenue from the “Ras El Hekma” project played a crucial role in achieving this surplus. The finance ministry continues to improve financial risk management to minimize economic impacts on various sectors and citizens amid global and regional challenges.
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SUDAN
Sudan’s Arbaat Dam Collapse Causes Fatalities and Disrupts Key Route
The collapse of the Arbaat Dam in Sudan resulted in multiple fatalities and severed a crucial route to Egypt. The dam, located 40 kilometers north of Port Sudan, failed due to heavy rains and floods in the Red Sea state. Humanitarian workers and activists are urgently calling for aid to the affected regions amid the devastation. The incident occurred during ongoing conflict between the Sudanese Army and Rapid Support Forces, exacerbating the situation. Sudanese authorities have not yet fully addressed the extent of the damage or the long-term impact.
Rapid Support Forces Threaten Parallel Government Formation in Khartoum
Basha Tabiq, advisor to the Rapid Support Forces leader, threatened to form a parallel government in Khartoum, citing military leaders’ stubbornness. Tabiq blamed the refusal to negotiate as the primary reason for this potential action to protect civilians. The new government plans to delegitimize Sovereign Council President Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and establish diplomatic relations. Additionally, it seeks to acquire military aircraft, advanced air defense systems, and create a banking system within controlled areas. This move reflects escalating tensions and the potential for further destabilization in Sudan.
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Tunisia
Tunisia’s President Announces Major Cabinet Reshuffle Impacting Key Ministries
Tunisian President Kais Saied announced a major cabinet reshuffle, affecting 19 ministries, including defense and foreign affairs. This reshuffle follows the recent appointment of Kamal al-Medouri as Prime Minister, replacing Ahmed Hachani. Khaled Sohaili was appointed as Minister of Defense, while Mohamed Ali Nafati became Minister of Foreign Affairs, Migration, and Tunisians Abroad. The reshuffle also involved the appointment of three deputy ministers to further strengthen the government’s structure. Key figures, such as Interior Minister Khaled Nouri and Justice Minister Leila Jaffal, retained their positions, ensuring continuity amid these changes.
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