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By: Rania Kisar

  • IRAN

Iran’s Emerging Challenges: U.S. Heavy Water Allegations, Russia Partnership, Advanced Drones, and Deepening Political Unrest.

  1. Is the U.S. Buying Iranian Heavy Water? 

Last week, the United States imposed sanctions on 13 individuals and entities accused of transferring tens of millions of dollars from the sale of Iranian commodities to the Houthi group in Yemen.

Following this, Iran’s Foreign Minister, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, revealed allegations that the United States had procured Iranian heavy water despite the sanctions. He noted that this indicated a failure of the United States to adhere to its own sanctions on Iran. Amir-Abdollahian also highlighted a stalemate in discussions about the nuclear agreement, hinting at a potential escalation in Iran’s nuclear capabilities.

Further intensifying tensions, Amir-Abdollahian warned of an “uncontrollable explosion in the region” following the U.S.’s veto of a Security Council resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza. Echoing this sentiment, Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani condemned the sanctions as biased, designed to shift focus from Israeli actions in Gaza. Kanaani asserted Iran’s right to take reciprocal measures and accused Western countries, including the US, UK, and Canada, of double standards in human rights due to their support for Israel.

  1. Cyber Pacts and UAVs: The Evolving Russia-Iran Partnership.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Iranian counterpart, Ebrahim Raisi, recently met to discuss various geopolitical issues, signaling a strategic partnership that extends Russia’s global alliances. This meeting, also focusing on energy and counteracting Western sanctions, raises concerns over Russia’s support for Iran’s regional activities. Concurrently, Iran strengthens its cyber cooperation with Russia, causing Western alarm over potential cybersecurity threats.

Further complicating matters, Ukraine’s Prosecutor General’s Office has identified Iran’s HESA as the producer of kamikaze UAVs used by Russia in Ukraine, the first official indication of Iran’s involvement in UAV manufacture. This forms part of Ukraine’s broader investigation into drone origins. With HESA known for both military and civilian aircraft production, Ukraine is bracing for intensified drone warfare by Russian forces.

Adding a new layer to Russian-Iranian dynamics, a recent phone call between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Putin highlighted Israel’s concerns over Russia’s growing ties with Iran and its stance on the Israel-Hamas conflict. Netanyahu criticized Russia’s UN representation for its anti-Israel positions and warned of the perils in Russia-Iran cooperation. Meanwhile, the leaders also discussed the Gaza humanitarian crisis, with Putin expressing concern for civilians and Netanyahu urging Russian influence on the Red Cross for better hostage access. Putin maintained Russia’s anti-terrorism stance but emphasized civilian protection in counterterrorism, and Russia proposed an international mission to assess Gaza’s humanitarian situation, underscoring its active role in regional affairs.

  1. Karar Drones: Iran’s New Long-Range Arsenal.

Another notable development in Iran’s military capabilities is the enhancement of its Karar drones. These drones have been armed with Majid air-to-air missiles and have a reported range of 1,000 kilometers. This upgrade represents a strategic shift in Iran’s defense posture, providing a cost-effective alternative to aging manned aircraft. The drones’ ability to track targets using thermal and visual methods enhances Iran’s capacity to counter various aerial threats, including unmanned drones. 

  1. Cracks in the Regime: Iran’s Political Unrest Deepens.

In Tehran, the undercurrents of political unrest are becoming increasingly visible. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei grapples with fears of defection and internal discord within his regime, amid concerns of a popular uprising. The Gaza conflict, perceived by Khamenei as a stabilizing factor, has not quelled the growing unease among Iran’s top brass. Amir-Ali Hajizadeh of the IRGC voices worries about waning loyalty, underscoring the need for unwavering revolutionary zeal.

A refinery fire in Iran’s Birjand special economic zone led to two explosions and remains uncontrolled, according to state media. The fire, which initially engulfed 1.5 million liters of fuel, has spread to all 18 reservoirs at the site. While no casualties have been reported, the extent of the damage is still unknown.

Meanwhile, President Ebrahim Raisi and Parliamentary Speaker Mohamad Bagher Ghalibaf publicly dismiss rumors of a rift, yet the media affiliated with each camp tells a different story. Judiciary Chief Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei’s recent comments about a financial corruption case have only added fuel to the fire, exposing further cracks in the regime’s facade.

Iranian authorities have accused Swedish EU diplomat Johan Floderus, detained in Tehran for over 600 days, of espionage and collaboration with Israel. Charged with “extensive intelligence cooperation” and “corruption on earth,” a capital offense in Iran, Floderus was arrested amid the trial of Iranian national Hamid Noury in Sweden for 1988 mass executions. His arrest coincides with strained Tehran-Stockholm relations following the execution of Iranian-Swedish dissident Habib Chaab and the ongoing death sentence threat to Ahmadreza Djalali. The EU and Sweden have called for Floderus’s immediate release, denouncing the charges. This development occurs amidst deteriorating EU-Iran relations, influenced by Iran’s alleged drone support to Russia in Ukraine and its response to internal protests.

Adding to Iran’s woes, UN Special Rapporteur Javaid Rehman has condemned the brutal treatment of the Baluch minority. In a recent London address, Rehman highlighted the disproportionate impact of the “Woman, Life, Freedom” protests on Baluch and Kurdish communities, with children bearing the brunt of the violence. The Baluchis, primarily Sunni Muslims in the Sistan-Baluchistan province, have long suffered persecution and high execution rates. Amnesty International corroborates this grim reality, ranking Iran among the highest in global execution rates. 

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  • TURKIYE 

Global Input for Gaza 

 

  1. Historic Diplomatic Alliance: Middle Eastern Ministers Unite for Peace in North America

For the first time, state officials from regions known for their contrasting and adversarial positions have come together, united in spearheading intense global diplomatic activities. The foreign affair ministers of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, and Turkey concluded their visit to North America this weekend. Originating from a summit of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation and the Arab League, these diplomatic efforts are aimed at halting the conflict and advocating for a UN-backed solution. The delegation stresses the need for the establishment of an independent Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital. 

  1. Turkey’s Diplomatic Strides: From Gaza Tensions to Global Trade Talks.

Turkey’s strong stance against further Israeli operations in Palestinian territories was highlighted, with specific criticism directed at the U.S. for its isolated support of Israel, evidenced by its veto of a UN ceasefire resolution in Gaza.Concurrently, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan engaged in discussions with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken. Their dialogue encompassed peace negotiations between Azerbaijan and Armenia, signifying Turkey’s commitment to regional stability and normalization. In a separate development, U.S. Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo and Turkish Minister of Trade Omer Polat conversed over the phone, focusing on enhancing trade relations between the two countries, particularly in sectors like aviation, digital economy, and green technology. They planned to continue these discussions at the “Trade Winds” conference in Istanbul, emphasizing the importance of addressing issues related to Turkish exports and market access.

  1. Istanbul’s Voice for Gaza: Protests and Forums Call for Global Justice.

Back in Istanbul, World Human Rights Day witnessed a large-scale protest against Israel’s military operations in Gaza. Organized by human rights groups, the demonstration condemned Israel for human rights violations and the destruction of Gaza’s infrastructure, urging a boycott of U.S. products due to its support of Israel. This sentiment was echoed at the TRT Channel Forum in Istanbul, which also emphasized the need for a more equitable international system, reform of the Security Council, and adherence to universal human values in global politics.

  1. Erdogan’s Stance on Gaza: Challenging International Silence and Injustice. 

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan openly criticized the United Nations Security Council for its perceived bias towards Israel, particularly after the U.S. vetoed a Gaza ceasefire proposal. He accused the council of violating the Universal Declaration of Human Rights in Gaza and labeled Israeli authorities as the “butchers of Gaza,” signaling his skepticism about the possibility of justice under the current international framework. Turkish First Lady Emine Erdoğan also spoke out, criticizing the global silence on Israeli threats to Gaza and questioning the credibility of universal human rights in this context.

  1. Erdogan’s Gaza Critique Meets Challenge: Calls to Take in Gazan Refugees. 

Amid these developments, Israeli media speculated on the possibility of Turkey accepting Gaza refugees. This potential move is seen as aligning with President Erdoğan’s Sunni Islamic identity and his strategy to balance the growing Kurdish population in Turkey. Historically, Turkey has accepted Syrian refugees, and a similar approach towards Gazans could help maintain the country’s Sunni Muslim and Turkish cultural dominance.

  1. Countering Iranian Threats: Mossad and Cyprus Thwart Planned Attacks. 

Lastly, the Israeli Mossad announced its collaboration with Cypriot authorities in preventing an Iran-orchestrated attack targeting Israelis and Jews in Turkish-controlled Cyprus. This development highlights growing concerns about Iran’s potential use of the region for terrorism and logistical activities, especially in the wake of the Gaza conflict.

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  • SYRIA

Intense Attacks on U.S. Forces, Civilians in Idlib & Aleppo, and Continued U.N. Failed Approaches.  

 

  1. Iran Intensifies Assaults on US Forces in Iraq and Syria

In a series of 10 daring new attacks, Iranian-backed militias, using drones and missiles, have markedly escalated hostilities against US forces. These incidents form part of a broader pattern of over 80 attacks, intensifying since Israel’s Gaza offensive in mid-October. Despite these provocations, the restraint shown by the Biden administration has led to criticism from Congressional Republicans. Senator Lindsey Graham, for instance, has called for a firmer stance against Iran’s aggressive actions.

Meanwhile, in Syria, Assad’s Prime Minister Hussein Arnous, under Assad’s regime, was recently summoned to Tehran. His visit, ostensibly for signing an economic agreement, is widely seen as a move by Iran to strengthen its influence in war-torn Syria. This development comes as the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), under increasing pressure, faces setbacks in Syria’s northeast. Following covert drone strikes in Deir ez-Zor, which targeted IRGC sites and caused significant material damage, the IRGC has repositioned their bases to civilian areas. This strategic shift, while anticipatory of further strikes, raises serious concerns about the safety of civilians in these regions.

  1. Escalation in Idlib and Aleppo.

Escalation in Idlib and Aleppo: In Syria’s northwestern regions, the conflict has intensified, particularly in Idlib and Aleppo. Recent missile strikes and bombings, tragically resulting in significant civilian casualties, including children, underscore the dire situation. In response to the Syrian regime’s lethal artillery and missile attacks on Idlib, Hay’at Tahrir Al-Sham has launched counterstrikes targeting regime positions in Latakia and Aleppo. These retaliatory strikes follow the devastating “Idlib massacre,” where regime forces killed 9 civilians and injured 33 others, further exacerbating the ongoing conflict. Civil defense teams have reported a distressingly high number of attacks this year, with a tragic toll on civilians, particularly children and women. Meanwhile, Syrian regime-affiliated media sources have acknowledged casualties in Nubl and Al-Zahraa, attributing them to the opposition’s rocket attacks. 

  1. International Tensions and Continued Failed Approaches.

On the Eve of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights’ 75th Anniversary, the US and UK have intensified their stance on human rights abuses in Syria. This comes as they impose new sanctions on Syrian regime officials – 11 from the US and eight from the UK, including ministers and military officers. These sanctions, comprising travel bans and asset freezes, underscore a robust opposition to human rights violations in the region.

Meanwhile, the Russian Center for Reconciliation in Syria has accused International Coalition warplanes, such as F-15, Rafale, and A-10 fighters, of breaching deconfliction rules in the Al-Tanf region. This claim, contested by the US, who in turn alleges unprofessional Russian air maneuvers, mirrors the deeper geopolitical rift between the US and Russia in Syria.

The Syrian state news agency SANA reported that Israel launched a missile strike near Damascus, which was countered by Syria’s air defenses. Some Israeli missiles were intercepted, resulting in only material losses. The attack, originating from the Golan Heights, received no immediate response from Israel. Israel periodically conducts strikes in Syria, citing threats from Iranian-backed groups.

Further complicating matters, UN envoy Geir Pedersen, speaking at the Doha Forum, drew attention to the ongoing stagnation in resolving the Syrian crisis. He pointed out the implications of the Gaza conflict’s spillover and the deadlock in peace negotiations. Pedersen reiterated the ineffectiveness of the ‘step by step‘ approach – previously proven unsuccessful – which includes proposals like force reduction and a nationwide ceasefire, envisioned to set the stage for American withdrawal and a settlement between the Syrian Democratic Forces and the regime. Notably, Pedersen omitted any mention of the regime and Russian offenses in Idlib and Aleppo.”

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  • ISRAEL & PALESTINIAN TERRITORIES 

No Ceasefire in Sight, Diplomatic Struggles, and Regional Tension Escalate. 

 

  1. U.S. Security Adviser’s Israel Visit Amidst Gaza Aid Concerns, Accelerated Arms Delivery, and Ceasefire Veto Fallout.

The U.S. National Security Adviser, Jake Sullivan, is set to visit Israel, focusing on increasing humanitarian aid to Gaza and discussing concerns over civilian casualties. This visit comes in the wake of several high-profile American officials’ engagements in the region, amidst heightened tensions with Hamas. Concurrently, the Biden administration, invoking emergency powers, expedited a $106.5 million deal supplying 14,000 tank shells to Israel, bypassing Congressional approval. This move, aimed at bolstering Israel’s defense, has drawn criticism from human rights groups, especially given the ongoing military activities in Gaza. Meanwhile, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas condemned the U.S. for vetoing a United Nations Security Council ceasefire resolution in Gaza, accusing America of facilitating genocide and war crimes by Israeli forces. This veto came despite widespread support for the resolution, further intensifying the geopolitical dynamics in the region. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned President Biden of potential Israeli action against Yemen’s Houthis if the U.S. remains inactive. The Houthis, targeting Israeli interests, intensify regional tensions. Israel stresses military intervention unless Washington acts, following U.S. sanctions on Houthi financing over attacks and Iranian support.

  1. Battles and Casualties Surge in Israel-Gaza War.

The escalating conflict in Israel and Gaza continues to take a heavy toll, with recent reports indicating significant military and civilian casualties on both sides. In a tragic development, Israel mourned the loss of five soldiers, including the nephew of a War Cabinet member, in recent clashes along the Gaza border and in Lebanon. The Israeli newspaper “Yedioth Ahronoth” disclosed that over 5,000 Israeli soldiers have been injured since the onset of the Gaza war, with more than 2,000 rendered “disabled.” This situation has posed unique challenges to Israel’s military and healthcare systems, particularly affecting young and female soldiers. In response to Hamas launching rockets from civilian areas in Gaza, including a site where a teddy bear was found rigged with ammunition, the IDF has intensified its operations. The Nahal Brigade and Yahalom special forces have been actively engaging Hamas fighters in areas like Jabalya. The situation has worsened following the US’s veto, leading to Israel escalating its airstrikes on southern Gaza. These intensified military actions have heightened civilian fears, with the UNRWA warning of a dire humanitarian crisis. Amidst these developments, Hamas continues to demand a prisoner exchange, even as the US advocates for the establishment of a Palestinian state after the war. Israeli forces have ramped up their activities in Khan Yunis, targeting over 250 Hamas sites, which has resulted in significant advancements including the discovery of tunnels and the seizure of weapons. The Al-Qassam Brigades, Hamas’ military wing, along with the Al-Quds Brigades of the Islamic Jihad Movement, have claimed the killing of eleven Israeli soldiers in Gaza. This claim comes amidst increasing tensions, as Hamas has rejected any prisoner release outside of negotiations, leading to more intense clashes and deadly Israeli airstrikes. The conflict saw further escalation with the Israeli army reporting the assassination of Hamas commander Imad Qareeqa and announcing the death of seven more soldiers in ongoing battles. These recent casualties add to a significant toll, with the Israeli army losing 430 soldiers since October. In a strategic shift, the Israeli military conducted its first aerial equipment drop in Gaza since 2006, supplying the 98th Brigade stationed in Khan Yunis with essential gear.

  1. Gaza Crisis Deepens: Global Calls for Ceasefire Amid Health, Financial Strains.

As the conflict in Gaza intensifies, the death toll has reached a grim milestone. According to the latest figures, 18,000 people have lost their lives, with the Israeli military’s ground offensive contributing to 101 fatalities. The Gaza Health Ministry reports a significant number of Palestinian casualties, with 17,997 deaths and 49,229 injuries, underscoring the severe impact on both combatants and civilians.

The hostage situation in the region has drawn significant attention. Nili Margalit, a nurse who was recently freed from captivity in Gaza, shed light on the dire health conditions of elderly captives. Concerns about insufficient medical care, sanitation, and nutrition for those still held captive were brought to the Israeli war cabinet’s attention, calling for urgent action. Tensions in Gaza have intensified following Hamas’s insistence on negotiating a prisoner exchange as a condition for any prisoner release. This demand has led to heightened conflict, including severe clashes and a series of deadly Israeli airstrikes in the region on Monday.

In Israel, the financial repercussions of the prolonged conflict are becoming increasingly evident. The country faced a substantial budget deficit of 16.6 billion shekels (around $4.5 billion) in November, primarily attributed to costs associated with the conflict. This figure far exceeds the government’s targeted deficit of 0.9% of GDP, with projections indicating a potential rise to approximately 4% for the full year of 2023.

The World Health Organization‘s Director-General, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, has warned of severe health risks in Gaza due to the war. Overwhelmed medical facilities and dwindling resources raise concerns about disease outbreaks, underlining the urgent humanitarian situation.

The United Nations General Assembly is set to discuss a resolution calling for an immediate humanitarian ceasefire in Gaza. This follows the United States’ veto of a similar resolution in the Security Council, reflecting the General Assembly’s consistent stance on advocating for a cessation of hostilities on humanitarian grounds.

European Nations Call for Ceasefire; Spain, Ireland, Belgium, and Malta Lead the Charge. A group of EU nations, led by Spain, Ireland, Belgium, and Malta, is urging a joint European response to the Gaza crisis. They advocate for a permanent humanitarian ceasefire and propose an international peace conference. In a notable move, these nations recommend freezing assets of Israeli settlers implicated in violence against Palestinian communities to deter further escalation in the West Bank.

In a related move, France is contemplating sanctions against individuals involved in illegal settlement activities and related violence by Israeli settlers in the West Bank. This consideration marks a growing international response to the increasing tensions and broader implications of these activities.

  1. Netanyahu Discusses Russian-Iranian Alliance with Putin.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently conveyed his concerns to President Vladimir Putin regarding the growing Russian-Iranian alliance during an extensive phone conversation. Netanyahu acknowledged Russia’s involvement in freeing a dual Israeli-Russian citizen and reaffirmed Israel’s commitment to utilizing all political and military avenues to secure the release of its abducted citizens. Concurrently, Russia has intensified its diplomatic involvement in the Gaza situation. Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov, engaging with Hamas and other Palestinian factions, has advocated for the release of detainees in Gaza. This initiative is part of Russia’s larger engagement with Middle Eastern leaders, including Netanyahu.

  1. Jordan Navigates Diplomatic Challenges in Israel-Hamas Conflict, Calls for U.S. Intervention.

Meanwhile, Jordan’s Foreign Minister has made serious allegations against Israel, accusing it of systematically evacuating Gaza in a manner he claims violates international law and could amount to war crimes. He has called on the United States to apply more pressure on Israel, emphasizing the broader repercussions of Israeli actions in the region and warning of potential escalation and further complexities. In the midst of the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict, Jordan faces a challenging diplomatic scenario. The country is striving to balance its public condemnation of Israel with the need to maintain vital geopolitical relationships, including the 1994 peace treaty. Jordan’s recent diplomatic actions, such as recalling its ambassador and hesitating to sign a major treaty, reflect the intricacies of its position during the Israel-Hamas conflict. In a related development, Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh has urged international sanctions against Israel, accusing it of breaching international and humanitarian laws. Simultaneously, Jordan’s King Abdullah II has expressed concern over the escalating situation, particularly highlighting the threat posed by Israeli settler violence in the West Bank and the ongoing aggression in Gaza. These declarations coincide with heightened tensions, with Shtayyeh demanding accountability for Israel’s actions and Jordan emphasizing the critical need for a fair resolution to the Palestinian issue, advocating for a two-state solution.

  1. Hezbollah Drone Attack Injures IDF Soldiers; Israel Retaliates with Airstrikes in Lebanon.

In the Western Galilee, six IDF soldiers were injured in a Hezbollah drone attack, prompting the IDF to launch airstrikes on Hezbollah sites in southern Lebanon, targeting rocket launch sites and military compounds. The IDF also thwarted an anti-tank missile attack near Zar’it. Israel’s national security adviser has sternly warned against Hezbollah’s presence along the northern border, indicating potential decisive action against ongoing threats, highlighting escalated regional tensions and Israel’s commitment to northern security. 

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