The Region Nov 27, 2023

Potential Iranian Strategy to Target Jordan Unveiled in Iraq-Jordan Border Crisis. The warning from Iraq’s Foreign Affairs Advisor about a potential regional conflict if the Gaza de-escalation doesn’t lead to a permanent ceasefire is a critical backdrop to the unfolding events at the Iraqi-Jordanian border. Here, armed factions aligned with Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces, ostensibly protesting Israeli actions in Gaza, have significantly disrupted trade and travel for two months, demanding entry into Jordan and impacting economic stability and oil supply. This disruption, alongside the Iranian-backed Iraqi Hezbollah Brigades’ announcement of a temporary halt to attacks on Israel and reduced hostility against U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria, suggests a strategic maneuver. This maneuver, aligning with the Gaza truce and following the release of Israeli hostages and Gaza’s humanitarian aid, contrasts with the group’s continued resistance against U.S. forces in Iraq. The convergence of these events, including the frustration of Jordanian officials over trade disruptions, points to a broader, possibly Iran-coordinated strategy. This strategy, aimed at destabilizing Jordan, represents a significant escalation in regional tensions and a direct threat to the stability of Jordan, a key U.S. ally in the Middle East, necessitating immediate attention from U.S. policy officials.

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