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Escalating Regional Tensions Amid Rapid Military and Diplomatic Movements

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Escalating Regional Tensions Amid Rapid Military and Diplomatic Movements

 

SYRIA

  1. US Eases Syrian Sanctions Temporarily for Humanitarian Aid

The United States issued a six-month waiver to facilitate humanitarian aid delivery to Syria after the fall of President Bashar al-Assad. The general license permits transactions with the new Syrian government to support essential services like water, electricity, and energy, addressing concerns of aid organizations and banks about violating sanctions. Broader sanctions from the civil war remain in place, with future decisions expected under President-elect Donald Trump’s administration later this month.

  1. Emirati and Syrian Foreign Ministers Discuss Strengthening Bilateral Relations

UAE Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed and Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad Hassan al-Shibani met in the UAE on Monday to discuss enhancing bilateral relations. This marks al-Shibani’s first official visit to the UAE, highlighting efforts to deepen “brotherly” ties between the two nations, according to Emirati state news agency WAM.

  1. Turkish Forces Strike Kurdish Positions During Escalating Clashes

Turkish forces targeted Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) positions near Ayn al-Arab (Kobani) in eastern Aleppo with rocket attacks, Syrian state media reported. Reconnaissance drones also monitored the region during the strikes. The escalation comes after the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) reported over 100 deaths in two days of intense clashes between Kurdish forces and Turkish-backed factions in northern Syria.

  1. Syria Concludes Homs Operation as Sweida Factions Back National Army

Syrian authorities ended a five-day security operation in Homs, arresting hundreds, with some suspects transferred to the judiciary. State media confirmed the operation’s objectives were achieved, while others remain under investigation. Simultaneously, Sweida’s largest factions, “Men of Dignity” and “Mountain Brigade,” pledged to merge into a unified national army to rebuild post-Assad Syria. They rejected sectarianism, prioritized public facility protection, and emphasized collaborative political stability. Challenges persist in unifying armed groups and restoring national security institutions.

  1. Syria Halts 2025 Budget and Announces Financial Reforms

Syria’s finance minister suspended the 2025 budget due to a 12 trillion-pound deficit, adopting a temporary plan until economic stability. Retiree salary increases and tax reforms are planned to reduce financial burdens and improve fairness. Legal measures are underway to restore confiscated property rights. The Syrian pound’s exchange rate stands at 13,130 per dollar, reflecting ongoing economic challenges.

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ISRAEL

  1. Israeli Committee Warns of New Threats, Recommends Defense Upgrades

The Nagel Committee urged Israel to prepare for potential threats from post-Assad Syria, including extremist Sunni forces or Turkish influence. It warned of a possible Turkish-Israeli conflict, surpassing the Iranian threat, and recommended fortifying vital infrastructure, enhancing air defense, and strengthening border security. A multi-year plan was proposed to boost military resilience and address evolving regional risks, ensuring Israel remains prepared for future challenges during shifting Middle Eastern dynamics.

  1. Israel Rejects UN Envoy, Tensions Escalate

Israel rejected Pekka Haavisto as the UN Middle East envoy, citing his ties to Guterres and support for a two-state solution. Concerns over Haavisto’s impact on Israel-UN relations follow Tor Wennesland’s tenure, marked by criticism of diplomatic failures and missed political solutions. Israel requested alternative candidates as the UN deliberates, reflecting escalating tensions and ongoing challenges in regional diplomacy. Haavisto’s nomination highlights broader divisions between Israel and the international community regarding the Middle East peace process.

  1. Amnesty Suspends Israel Branch Over Report Criticism, Racism Claims

Amnesty International suspended its Israel branch for two years, accusing it of anti-Palestinian racism and rejecting Amnesty reports on Israel’s alleged apartheid and genocide in Gaza. Amnesty Israel argued the genocide claim lacked evidence but acknowledged possible violations of international law. Internal whistleblowers accused Amnesty leadership of bias and politicizing human rights. The suspension highlights internal tensions, with Amnesty’s board asserting the branch’s actions damaged the organization’s credibility and core human rights principles.

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LEBANON

  1. US Diverts Military Aid to Lebanon During Regional Tensions

The Biden administration shifted $95 million in military aid from Egypt to Lebanon, citing its critical role in enforcing the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire and countering Hezbollah threats. This decision reflects U.S. concerns over Egypt’s human rights record, including political prisoner arrests. While Egypt remains crucial for Gaza aid mediation, Lebanon’s strategic importance in maintaining regional security has become a priority, aligning with U.S. efforts to stabilize the Middle East and support key partners.

  1. Lebanese Army Deploys in Naqoura After Israeli Withdrawal

The Lebanese army deployed in Naqoura and the western sector after Israel’s withdrawal under the ceasefire agreement. Coordination with UNIFIL includes clearing unexploded ordnance. U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein confirmed Israel’s ongoing withdrawal but Israeli leaders plan to retain presence in some areas. Lebanon demands full withdrawal within the agreed timeframe, while Hezbollah links its response to Israeli violations. The deployment marks significant progress in enforcing the ceasefire and restoring stability in southern Lebanon.

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ISRAEL-HAMAS WAR

  1. Trump Threatens Severe Action Over Hostages

President-elect Donald Trump demanded Hamas release hostages by his January 20 inauguration, warning of unprecedented Middle East retaliation. Emphasizing strong support for Israel, Trump cited relocating the US Embassy to Jerusalem and brokering the Abraham Accords. His warning, first issued on Truth Social, promises accountability for those responsible for the atrocities, signaling a firm stance on justice and regional stability. Trump’s comments underscore a zero-tolerance approach to hostage situations under his administration.

  1. Gaza Rocket Targets Sderot, Heightening Tensions

Three rockets fired from Gaza hit Sderot, causing minor damage to a home, with another intercepted and one landing in an open area. This marks the tenth attack in 11 days, highlighting escalating tensions along the Gaza-Israel border. Previous strikes targeted southern communities, including the Erez Crossing, causing infrastructure damage. Sirens in Sderot, Ibim, and Nir Am signaled the ongoing threat, underscoring persistent security challenges in the region. No injuries were reported in the recent incident.

  1. Three Israelis Killed, Eight Injured in West Bank Shooting

Gunmen killed three Israelis, including two elderly women and an off-duty officer, and injured eight others in al-Funduq, West Bank. The attackers targeted vehicles on Route 55 before fleeing. The IDF launched a manhunt, deploying troops and helicopters while setting up roadblocks near Nablus. Hamas praised the attack as retaliation, escalating tensions in the region. This incident underscores the intensifying violence and instability affecting both Israelis and Palestinians in the West Bank.

  1. .22 Palestinians Killed, Israeli Officer Dies in Gaza Clashes

Israeli airstrikes killed 22 Palestinians and injured 40 in Gaza, with heavy bombing targeting several areas. An Israeli officer died, and two soldiers were seriously injured in clashes in northern Gaza. Hamas’ Al-Qassam Brigades claimed targeting two Merkava tanks, while resistance rockets hit Sderot. Palestinian health officials reported 45,854 deaths and 109,139 injuries since October 2023. The conflict continues with significant casualties and destruction, highlighting the escalating humanitarian crisis in the region.

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TURKIYE

  1. Erdogan Warns Against Syria’s Division, Vows Military Action

President Erdogan rejected dividing Syria post-Assad, warning of military action against threats to Turkey’s security. He stressed eliminating Kurdish militants and terrorism, ensuring Syria’s stability. Foreign Minister Fidan opposed Western support for Kurdish forces, vowing no tolerance for their presence. Turkey emphasized combating ISIS, preventing its return, and collaborating regionally to restore security and stability. Both leaders reaffirmed Turkey’s readiness to address any regional challenges through decisive action and strategic cooperation.

  1. Turkey and Jordan Support Syria’s Stability and Regional Security

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and Jordanian counterpart Ayman Safadi emphasized supporting Syria’s new administration to ensure regional security. They discussed combating terrorism, reconstruction efforts, and economic opportunities benefiting neighboring countries. Both rejected Israeli aggression in Syria and affirmed that Syria’s stability is vital for Turkey and Jordan’s security. Highlighting regional cooperation, they recalled visits to Damascus to support Syria after Assad’s fall, focusing on unity and rebuilding efforts.

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IRAN

  1. Iran Prepares to Integrate Russian Su-35 Jets by 2025

Iran is set to integrate advanced Russian  Su-35 fighter jets into its air force by 2025, according to the Iran Observer X account. The Su-35, a multirole 4.5-generation aircraft, will significantly enhance Iran’s aging fleet, bolstering its air capabilities. This move reflects growing military cooperation between Iran and Russia, especially during their close collaboration in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. The acquisition of the Su-35 will improve Iran’s defense capacity, aligning with its broader strategy to modernize its military assets. 

  1. Iran Doubles Military Drills in Response to Incoming Trump Administration – Report

Iran’s Islamic Republic has significantly increased its military drills in preparation for the incoming Trump administration, according to a report by Brigadier General Ali Mohammad Naeini from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. The drills, which have intensified over the past two weeks, are seen as a response to military threats, including Israeli attacks this year. The report, published by the Financial Times, states that approximately 30 naval, ground, and air maneuvers will take place across six provinces in southern and western Iran, 

  1. IRGC: The Next Operation Against Israel Will Be Stronger

The spokesperson for Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Brigadier General Ali Mohammad Naeini, stated on Monday that the next operation Iran plans against Israel will be “stronger and harsher.” Naeini emphasized that “the next operation against the Zionist entity will be more powerful when the time comes.” He added that Israel is aware of the vulnerability of its skies, noting that Iran is capable of targeting it with increased intensity. This statement reflects the ongoing tensions and military rhetoric between Iran and Israel.

  1. Iran’s Petrochemical Exports Surge 32% in Nine Months

Iran’s petrochemical exports increased by  32% in the first nine months of the current Iranian year (March 20 – December 21, 2024), compared to the same period last year. Iranian Trade Minister, Farood Asgari, reported that exports amounted to 50.7 million tons, valued at $19.7 billion, reflecting a 33.25% year-on-year weight growth. The head of Iran’s National Petrochemical Company emphasized that the petrochemical sector plays a crucial role in boosting Iran’s position in the global economy.

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IRAQ

  1. Iraq-Syria Border Crossing to Reopen Following Stabilized Security

The primary border crossing between Iraq and Syria is scheduled to reopen next week, following weeks of closure after the collapse of Syria’s Assad regime. Turki Muhammad Khalaf, district mayor of Iraq’s Al-Qaim, bordering Syria’s Al Bukamal, stated Sunday that traffic and trade would resume if no issues arise, signaling improving regional security stability.

  1. Coalition Member Killed, Two Wounded in Iraq ISIS Strikes

The US Central Command (CENTCOM) reported Monday that one Coalition member was killed and two others wounded during strikes targeting ISIS in Iraq from December 30 to January 6. Conducted in coordination with Iraqi forces, the operations focused on ISIS positions in the Hamrin mountains. CENTCOM confirmed no injuries to US personnel or damage to US equipment.

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YEMEN

  1. UN Envoy Arrives in Sanaa for First Talks in Two Years

UN Special Envoy to Yemen, Hans Grundberg, arrived in Sanaa on Monday, marking his first visit in nearly two years. The visit aims to engage with Houthi leadership on resolving Yemen’s crisis and securing the release of UN staff detained since June last year. Arriving from Muscat, Oman, Grundberg is expected to discuss de-escalation efforts during ongoing Houthi attacks on vessels in the Red and Arabian Seas and sites in Israel.

  1. Houthis Announce Strikes on US Aircraft Carrier, Israeli Targets

The Houthis declared Monday the execution of multiple military operations, including an attack on the US aircraft carrier “USS Harry S. Truman” in the Red Sea and drone strikes targeting three locations in Israel. The group stated these actions were in retaliation for the massacres in Gaza.

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GULF NATIONS

  1. Saudi, US Foreign Ministers Discuss Regional Developments

Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan held a phone call with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Monday. The discussion focused on regional developments and ongoing efforts to address them.

  1. Qatar and UK Discuss Gaza, Syria, and Bilateral Cooperation

Qatar’s Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed Al Thani and UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy discussed Gaza’s humanitarian crisis, emphasizing urgent solutions to ease civilian suffering and foster regional stability. They also addressed Syria, with Qatar reaffirming its support for Syria’s unity, independence, and the aspirations of its people. Additionally, the call focused on strengthening Qatar-UK cooperation across multiple fields to advance shared interests and enhance relations.

  1. Oman’s Oil Exports Exceed 282 Million Barrels in 11 Months

Oman’s oil exports reached 282.2 million barrels by November 2024, accounting for 84.8% of total production. The average barrel price was $81.8. Exports decreased by 0.4% from November 2023, reflecting a 5.1% drop in overall production. China remained the top importer, increasing by 1.5%. South Korea saw a 51.7% rise, while Japan’s imports dropped by 49.8%. Daily oil production averaged 993,100 barrels during the period.

  1. Bahraini Economy Grows 2.1% in Q3 of 2024

Bahrain’s GDP grew 2.1% in Q3 2024 compared to Q3 2023, reaching 3.734 billion dinars ($9.93 billion) in constant prices. Non-oil sectors saw a 3.9% rise, with manufacturing contributing 20.1%. Professional, scientific, and technical activities grew 13.8%, while information and communications increased 11.9%. The Babco refinery upgrade, aimed at boosting production capacity by 42%, supports Bahrain’s strategic energy initiatives and further strengthens its economic growth and diversification efforts.

  1. Saudi Sovereign Fund Secures First Murabaha Financing of $7 Billion

The Saudi Public Investment Fund (PIF) secured its first Murabaha financing of $7 billion (SAR 26.3 billion) with 20 financial institutions. This deal is part of PIF’s medium-term strategy, reflecting its commitment to diversifying funding sources and enhancing investments globally. Fahd Al-Saif, Head of Investment Strategy, emphasized that the financing strengthens PIF’s financial position and follows a series of sukuk issuances in recent years, supporting the fund’s continued growth and global influence.

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EGYPT & North Africa

  1. Oman and Egypt Hold Talks on Gaza War and Regional Developments

Omani Foreign Minister Badr Al-Busaidi met with his Egyptian counterpart Badr Abdel Aty on Monday to discuss bilateral relations, regional developments, and efforts to secure a ceasefire in Gaza. The meeting at Oman’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Muscat emphasized the historic ties between the two nations and their shared commitment to enhancing political, economic, and cultural cooperation for mutual benefit. Abdel Aty also held additional meetings with Omani officials during his visit.

  1. Egypt’s Foreign Reserves Reach Record High in 2024

The Central Bank of Egypt announced a rise in foreign currency reserves to a record high in 2024. The reserves reached $47.109 billion, $47.109 billion, compared to $46.952 billion in November, marking an increase of $189 million. This is the highest level ever recorded for Egypt’s reserves. The bank also noted that international reserves grew by approximately $11.89 billion in 2024, reflecting a 34% increase.

  1. UN Security Council Discusses Sudan Crisis and Constitutional Amendments

The UN Security Council is holding an open session on Monday to discuss the deteriorating humanitarian situation in Sudan. The discussions will focus on food security challenges and the humanitarian conditions in areas affected by the ongoing conflict. This session comes in response to a request from the UK, Ghana, and Slovenia during the escalating humanitarian crisis resulting from months of war.

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