By: Rania Kisar, Catherine Perez-Shakdam, Ahmad Barbour, Early Phoenix Team, ACLS July 28, 2024
The 2023 timeline reveals Iran’s extensive involvement in activities that have heightened regional and international tensions, imposing significant costs and creating formidable diplomatic challenges. Iran has significantly advanced its nuclear ambitions, nearing weapons-grade uranium enrichment, planning a deep underground facility, and approaching nuclear weapon testing. These developments have escalated global concerns, necessitating urgent international diplomatic and strategic responses to mitigate the threats posed by Iran’s aggressive pursuits.
Iran’s weapon smuggling operations have profoundly destabilized global security. Utilizing Mahan Air, Iran transported arms to Syria and Lebanon, clandestinely supplied munitions to Russia for the Ukraine conflict, and facilitated ammunition shipments via the Caspian Sea. These actions underscore Iran’s relentless drive to arm its proxies, exacerbating conflicts and undermining international peace efforts. Additionally, Iranian cyber operations have targeted critical sectors, including attempts to infiltrate the U.S. election results website, compromising U.S. nuclear experts, and breaching the UK’s Electoral Commission. This strategic cyber warfare extends to advanced surveillance, aiming to manipulate social media and disrupt infrastructure, thereby destabilizing adversaries and international systems.
Iran’s aggressive tactics in 2023 included high-profile assassination plots against U.S. officials John Bolton and Mike Pompeo, renewed threats against former President Trump, and an attempted assassination of Israel’s National Security Minister. These actions reflect Iran’s intent to eliminate perceived threats and escalate global tensions. Moreover, Iran’s proxies, such as Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthi rebels, have intensified their attacks, receiving advanced weapons, training, and financial support from Tehran. These proxy actions illustrate Iran’s indirect strategy to expand its influence and destabilize the region, challenging U.S. and allied forces in Iraq and Syria and disrupting maritime routes.
Iran’s 2023 Terrorism Review: Expansions in Nuclear Ambitions, Proxy Conflicts, and Assassination Plots
Early Phoenix Team’s Iran Assessment:
Class A Global Terrorism Financier
By the end of going through the timeline events below, policy-makers, scholars, and experts in American foreign policy can ascertain the critical need for sustainable solutions. The urgency can no longer be underestimated especially after the clear warnings issued by the Biden administration top officials on July 19, 2023 that Iran is only one to two weeks away from sufficient fissile material for a nuclear weapon.
The detailed timeline report, meticulously compiled by the Early Phoenix monitoring team utilizing the American Center for Levant Studies (Journey into History) per country archive, provides comprehensive insights into these activities. Below is a month-by-month breakdown of Iran’s geopolitical maneuvers and their impacts throughout 2023:
December 2022: Assassination Plots and Covert Operations Intensify
In December 2022, the IRGC plotted to assassinate U.S. officials John Bolton and Mike Pompeo using a non-Iranian agent, but the FBI thwarted this plan. Iran supplied Shahed Kamikaze drones to Russia for attacks on Kyiv, despite denials. Iran used Mahan Air for arms smuggling into Syria and Lebanon and detained American hostages, including Simak Namazi, Murad Tahbaz, Shihab Dalili, and Imad Sharqi. Iran’s cooperation with Russia includes plans to acquire Sukhoi Su-35 fighter jets, and it obstructs the investigation into Flight PS752’s downing.
January-February 2023: Money Laundering, Assassination Plots, and Aggression Escalate
In January 2023, the IRGC used the Iranian embassy in Iraq for sophisticated money laundering to fund covert operations. In February, they revisited assassination plots against U.S. officials John Bolton and Mike Pompeo, deployed warships towards the Panama Canal, and confirmed protection of al-Qaeda leader Seif al-Adel. Iran continued supplying drones to Russia, supporting global conflicts, and publicly threatened former President Donald Trump, demonstrating its aggressive tactics and intent to project military power and influence in international waters.
March 2023: Missile Development and Nuclear Threats
In March 2023, Iran developed advanced ballistic missiles capable of striking moving naval targets, significantly escalating its military technology. Secret shipments of millions of bullets and shells to Russia for use in the Ukraine conflict underscored Iran’s role in international warfare. The U.S. and European nations raised concerns over Iran’s uranium enrichment activities nearing weapons-grade levels, posing a severe global nuclear threat. Additionally, Iran conducted joint naval drills with China and Russia in the Gulf of Oman, showcasing its strategic military alliances and enhanced regional capabilities.
April 2023: Declaring U.S. Weakness, Proxy Attacks, and Cyber Failures
In April 2023, Iran declared the U.S. no longer a superpower and aimed to pursue foreign relations independently of the JCPOA. The G7 urged Iran to halt its nuclear escalation and arms support to Russia. Former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett remarked that Iran’s influence turns nations into failed states. Iran increased anti-Israel rhetoric, boasting about proxy attacks. Iranian hackers unsuccessfully attempted to infiltrate the U.S. election results website, countered by U.S. Cyber Command. Iran also facilitated significant ammunition shipments to Russia via the Caspian Sea.
May 2023: Weapon Smuggling, Drug Trafficking, Nuclear Expansion
In May 2023, Iran smuggled weapons into Syria disguised as earthquake aid, while the U.S. seized $80 million worth of heroin linked to Iran. Iran provided drones for Russian attacks on Ukraine, with the IRGC commander threatening further actions against the U.S. Iran continued nuclear advancements, including plans for a deep underground facility and enhanced uranium enrichment. Iran used civilian ships as floating bases for terror activities, and an Iranian hacktivist group disclosed ongoing nuclear developments.
June 2023: Drone Collaboration, Nuclear Talks, and Regional Tensions
In June 2023, the U.S. exposed Iran’s assistance in building a Russian drone factory. Indirect U.S.-Iran talks addressed nuclear and regional activities, while Iran aimed to commercialize nuclear products. President Raisi criticized Trump in Venezuela. An Iranian suicide drone test in the Gulf was reported. Iran’s oil exports soared, defying U.S. sanctions. Leaked documents showed Iran anticipated fallout for arming Russia. Iranian cargo planes frequented Russia’s Hmeimim Airbase. Israeli research identified Iranian scientists aiding Russia’s drones. Trade with China hit $6.5 billion. Mossad disrupted an Iranian terror plot in Cyprus.
In June 2023, secret talks in Oman hinted at potential U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, with U.S. Special Envoy Robert Malley engaging directly with Iranian Ambassador Saeed Erwani, despite official denials. U.S. and UK navies intervened after Iranian forces harassed a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, escalating regional tensions. Reports indicated that former Iranian security chief Ali Shamkhani received $3.5 million annually from an IRGC-backed drug lord, highlighting high-level corruption. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei declared Iran’s nuclear infrastructure as non-negotiable, intensifying concerns over a nuclear standoff.
July 2023: Economic Ties, Military Actions, Cyber Attacks
In July 2023, Iraq transferred $10 billion to Iran for non-sanctioned purchases, highlighting strong economic ties. On July 6, the U.S. Navy stopped Iranian forces from seizing two tankers in the Gulf of Oman. The International Court of Justice acted against Iran for downing a Ukrainian plane, and Iran announced $40 billion in new oil deals. Iranian hackers targeted U.S. nuclear experts, and the IRGC seized a fuel-smuggling tanker. NATO expressed concerns over Iran supplying drones to Russia. Non-oil trade with China reached $7.8 billion. Iran conducted military exercises with advanced missiles.
August 2023: Terrorism, Malley Controversy, Cyber Attacks, Nuclear Threats
In August 2023, Iran’s global terrorism activities included secret talks with US envoy Robert Malley, a $6 billion prisoner swap deal, and showcasing AI-powered missiles and advanced drones. Iran announced a supersonic cruise missile and planned military cooperation with China. A cyber attack on the UK’s Electoral Commission implicated Iran, and a scandal revealed its purchase of surveillance technology. Iran established 45 trade centers, faced maritime tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, and neared testing a nuclear weapon. The International Court of Justice acted against Iran over the Ukrainian plane downing, and GhostSec exposed Iranian surveillance of citizens.
September 2023: Drone Production, Military Deployments, and Assassination Plot Foiled
In September 2023, Iran announced plans to produce Kaman-12 and Kaman-22 drones and reiterated its commitment to regional stability. The UK investigated 21 academics for assisting Iran’s military, and Iran deployed 10 brigades along its borders. The IRGC planned to deploy water-landing naval drones in the Persian Gulf. The US imposed sanctions on individuals linked to Iran’s drone program, and Israel thwarted an assassination plot on its National Security Minister linked to Iran. The US Defense Department investigated Ariane Tabatabai for alleged covert contacts with Iran.
October 2023: Drone Exercises, Naval Drills, and Hamas Assault on Israel
In October 2023, Iran planned a comprehensive drone exercise, highlighting advancements with potential regional security impacts. Iran conducted naval drills using suicide drones, escalating tensions with Europe. A meeting on October 2 led to Hamas and PIJ attacks on Israel, supported by Iran. Iranian media launched an anti-Israel campaign. Ayatollah Khamenei denied Iran’s role in Hamas attacks, and Iranian officials issued warnings to the U.S. Discussions between Russia and Iran focused on defense and energy cooperation. With UN sanctions expiring, Iran and Russia’s military cooperation intensified. Iran’s Foreign Minister warned the UN about Israeli actions. Intelligence Minister Khatib supported Hamas, and MEMRI TV confirmed Iran’s financial and military backing for Palestinian groups.
November 2023: Khamenei’s Anti-Israel Rhetoric, Hezbollah Coordination, Strikes on U.S. Bases, and Cyber Attacks Against American Utilities
In November 2023, Iran escalated its global terrorism activities and strategic military operations. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei delivered strong anti-Israel rhetoric, invoking the 1979 U.S. embassy takeover and urging Islamic nations to oppose Israel, while threatening severe consequences if the U.S. did not enforce a Gaza ceasefire. IRGC Commander Esmail Qaani coordinated with Hezbollah in Lebanon and pledged support to Hamas. Iran proposed expanding foreign policy authority to its armed forces and intelligence ministry. Iranian Defense Minister Mohammad Reza Ashtiani warned the U.S. of severe repercussions if the Gaza conflict continued. The IAEA raised alarms over Iran barring experienced inspectors and advancing uranium enrichment. Iranian forces used Syrian airbases strategically, and the IRGC allegedly assisted Houthis in seizing a Red Sea cargo vessel. Cyberattacks by Iranian-linked hackers targeted U.S. utilities, and Iran’s Quds Force committed to backing Hamas against Israel. Secret executions and persecution of minorities intensified, while Iran fortified its military capabilities with Russian aircraft acquisitions. Pro-Iran hackers breached a Pennsylvania water utility, highlighting critical infrastructure vulnerabilities. Iranian proxies resumed attacks on U.S. forces post-ceasefire, and Iran nullified a U.S.-proposed trade route to India, citing the Al-Aqsa Uprising’s impact on regional dynamics.
December 2023: Iran’s Regional Influence and Global Security
In December 2023, Iran’s regional and global influence intensified. IRGC Commander Hossein Salami renewed threats against the US and Israel amid an Israel-Hamas truce extension. Iran showcased its maritime dominance with the largest merchant fleet in the Middle East and detained ships for alleged fuel smuggling. Supreme Leader Khamenei called for reducing US influence and supporting Palestinian sovereignty. The country vowed retaliation against Israel for the death of IRGC officers, while President Raisi strengthened ties with Russia. Iran advanced its space capabilities with a bioscience capsule launch and asserted control over the Red Sea. The EU sanctioned Iranian individuals linked to drone sales, and Iranian hackers targeted Israeli sectors. Additionally, Iran’s IRGC leveraged Mahdism doctrine to shape its confrontational stance, and social media manipulation efforts disrupted Israeli harmony. Corruption scandals and legal actions, including Switzerland’s attempt to arrest Iran’s President, highlighted systemic issues within the country.
Conclusion: Iran’s Extensive 2023 Terrorism Activities Demand Global Response
In 2023, Iran’s role as a global financier and perpetrator of terrorism became clear. The timeline reveals Iran’s involvement in assassination plots, weapon supply to conflict zones like Ukraine, and aggressive nuclear ambitions. Its strategic military alliances, cyber warfare, and internal repression further destabilize international security. Support for militant groups and violations of international norms reflect a strategy to expand influence and undermine global stability. This evidence underscores the need for increased vigilance and a strong international response to counter Iran’s ongoing terrorist activities.
