Top Headlines:
- 9/11 Mastermind Khalid Sheikh Mohammed Signs Plea Agreement
- Iran Leverages Hamas Leader’s Assassination: Expert Analysis of Conflict
- Israel Confirms: Two Top Hamas Commanders Killed in July Strike
- Nasrallah Declares Revenge for Commander’s Killing, Promises Retaliation
- Washington Deploys 12 Warships and 4,000 Troops to the Middle East
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★ USA
9/11 Mastermind Khalid Sheikh Mohammed Signs Plea Agreement to Avoid Death Penalty
Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and two accomplices, integral to orchestrating the September 11 attacks, have conceded to plea agreements, sidestepping potential death penalties. This resolution terminates protracted pre-trial disputes concerning the admissibility of evidence compromised by prior CIA torture. The defendants will confess to conspiracy and murder, receiving life sentences at Guantanamo Bay. This arrangement not only accelerates legal proceedings but also eschews the uncertainties of a prolonged trial or possible dismissal of pivotal confessions. A forthcoming “mini-trial” will convene a military jury to hear victim impact statements before sentencing, slated for next year. This deal, while closing a prolonged chapter of legal wrangling, continues to stir mixed reactions among the victims’ families, balancing the scales between justice served and the gravity of the crimes committed.
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★ IRAN
Iran Leverages Hamas Leader’s Assassination: Expert Analysis of Conflict
By: Catherine Perez-Shakdam, Rania Kisar, and The Early Phoenix Team ACLS, August 1, 2024
As the world questions how Hamas’s top political leader was killed in the heart of Tehran, Iran is using the incident to ignite full-scale regional conflict. A recent New York Times report, citing unnamed officials, suggested the assassination occurred via a planted bomb. Additionally, Axios confirmed Israel’s involvement by detailing Mossad’s role in the killing, although Israel has not confirmed its involvement. The situation remains deeply troubling due to the apparent lack of vigilance, American deterrence, or effective diplomacy.
According to American media, on August 1, 2024, an explosive device detonated in Haniyeh’s bedroom at a high-security Iranian government residence in Tehran, killing him and his bodyguard. The New York Times, citing unnamed officials, reported that the assassination was carried out using a planted bomb. This account highlights the covert nature of the operation but did not specify who was responsible. Axios confirmed these details, adding that the bomb was a high-tech device incorporating artificial intelligence, remotely detonated by Mossad operatives who were on Iranian soil. The incident’s timing and initial reactions were marked by confusion. Hamas initially claimed that Haniyeh was killed in an Israeli airstrike, while Iranian media reported conflicting accounts, suggesting missiles launched either by a drone or from outside Iran. These discrepancies added to the uncertainty surrounding the assassination. Meanwhile, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) launched an investigation into the incident to uncover how such a breach of security could occur at a high-level facility.
Local experts speculate that the precise execution suggests internal assistance, highlighting a profound security breach possibly similar to the assassination of the former Iranian President and his foreign minister in a helicopter crash on May 19, 2024. Various sources suggest that Raisi’s death could have been orchestrated to clear the path for Mojtaba Khamenei’s ascension to leadership. Mojtaba, increasingly involved in the country’s security and intelligence operations, is seen as a potential successor to his father. Leaked documents reveal internal contention within the IRGC about Mojtaba’s role and influence. The Iranian government often attributes such high-profile operations to Israeli intelligence, particularly Mossad. The sophisticated nature of the operation, involving high-tech devices and AI, aligns with methods attributed to Mossad. Blaming Israel serves Iran’s political narrative by framing the incident within the ongoing conflict with Israel, galvanizing support against a common adversary and deflecting attention from internal vulnerabilities.
Iran’s IRGC-sponsored Tasnim News Agency reported that witnesses saw an object resembling a missile hit and explode in Mr. Haniyeh’s room, raising questions about Israel evading Iranian air defense. Two Iranian officials admitted they did not know how or when the explosives were planted but confirmed the explosion occurred inside the room. These narratives indicate a severe security lapse, embarrassing the Guards who use the compound for retreats, secret meetings, and housing prominent guests like Mr. Haniyeh. Iranian authorities have launched a campaign blaming the United States and Israel for the assassination. Officials have also increased security measures across Tehran and other strategic locations. The Iranian Foreign Minister warned his counterparts in Saudi Arabia and Qatar against allowing their airspace to be used against Iran and informed them of Iran’s intention to launch a military strike on Israel.
The funeral of Hamas’s top political leader in Tehran drew significant attention, with high-ranking Iranian officials and members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps in attendance. The ceremony, marked by public displays of mourning and speeches, emphasized the narrative of resistance against Israel. Iranian state media portrayed the event as a symbol of unity and defiance, further fueling regional tensions. Observers noted the heavy security presence and the absence of international diplomats, underscoring the event’s political sensitivity and the heightened state of alert in the Iranian capital.
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei issued a stern warning, stating, “We will avenge the blood of our martyr with a harsh and definitive response.” Other high-ranking officials echoed his sentiments, with Iran’s acting Foreign Minister and representatives at the UN condemning the act as a direct attack on Iran’s sovereignty. These statements emphasized the need for retribution and portrayed the incident as part of a broader campaign against Iran. The unified stance among Iranian officials, both domestically and internationally, highlights the gravity of the situation and the potential for escalating regional tensions.
Biden Administration’s Inaction and Iran’s UN Deception Reaffirmed Today
Iran’s ambassador to the UN has once again denied Iran’s involvement in Putin’s war against Ukraine. However, this support has been evident since mid-2022, when Iran began supplying Russia with over a thousand Shahed UAVs, extensively used in targeting Ukrainian civilian infrastructure and cities. Despite this, the Biden administration has not pursued the execution of Resolution 2231, even as the U.S., Britain, and France report supplying drones and weapons to Russia. The most recent documented incident of Russia using Iranian drones occurred on March 29, 2024. Ukrainian authorities reported that Russian forces launched 12 Iranian-made Shahed drones across Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, Odesa, and Poltava, with nine intercepted and shot down by Ukrainian air defense. Violating UN Resolution 2231 could re-impose sanctions lifted as part of the Iran nuclear deal, severely crippling Iran’s economy. It could also result in international isolation, increased diplomatic tensions, and potential military actions or interventions from concerned nations.
Lawmakers Probe Iranian Influence in Administration: Harris’s Advisor and Malley to be Questioned
Lawmakers announced that on August 9, 2024, Vice President Harris’s National Security Advisor, Philip Gordon, will be questioned over connections to an Iranian influence operation. Philip Gordon, Vice President Harris’s National Security Advisor, has been linked to the National Iranian American Council (NIAC), a pro-Iran lobbying organization founded by Trita Parsi. Gordon spoke at NIAC’s annual conference in 2014, highlighting the organization’s influence within the White House. Investigations reveal that NIAC played a pivotal role in shaping U.S. policy favorable to Iran during the Obama administration, further cementing the ties between Gordon and pro-Iran entities. This questioning is in addition to Rob Malley, the Biden administration’s Envoy to Iran, who is currently under investigation. Lawmakers also announced their intent to subpoena the State Department for failing to provide information about the suspended Malley. They demanded responses by August 2, 2024, regarding Malley’s handling of classified information and potential Iranian influence.
ACLS Predictions on Iranian Threats to Jordan Confirmed by MP Al-Hasanat
In November 2023, a comprehensive ACLS study accurately predicted the destabilizing actions Iran would undertake against Jordan, a forecast now confirmed by Jordanian MP Aisha Al-Hasanat in her speech to the Jordanian Parliament today. She warned and highlighted Iran’s covert war on Jordan through proxy terrorist armies, narcotrafficking, and arms smuggling, corroborating the ACLS findings. She emphasized that Iran’s Axis of Resistance is exploiting Jordan’s vulnerabilities, creating severe security threats from Iranian proxies in Syria and Iraq, and inciting civil unrest via Hamas and other factions. Al-Hasanat’s statement underscores the brutal reality of these threats, risking Jordan’s stability and existence, as ACLS had foreseen. Unfortunately, Jordan’s security remains under great pressure without any policy actions.
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★ ISRAEL & PALESTINIAN TERRITORIES
Israel Confirms: Two Top Hamas Commanders Killed in July Strike
The IDF confirmed that Muhammad Deif and Rafa’a Salameh, two top leaders of Hamas’s military wing in Gaza, were killed in a July 13 airstrike on Rafah. Hamas had concealed their deaths until recent intelligence confirmed it. Israeli Defense Minister Gallant was seen on TV erasing their names from a list. Both commanders were responsible for orchestrating the October 7 assault on Israel.
Heightened Security for Israeli Officials as Iran Plans Retaliation
In anticipation of an Iranian retaliation for the recent assassinations of key figures from Hezbollah and Hamas, Israel has heightened security measures for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other government ministers. The Shin Bet, Israel’s security agency, now requires all travel plans for these officials to be approved by its chief, ensuring proximity to shelters at public events. Additionally, Israeli diplomats worldwide have been advised to keep a low profile to mitigate risks of attacks on Israeli or Jewish targets globally. These precautions follow direct threats from Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, promising a response to the killings that occurred within hours of each other, further escalating tensions after a deadly Hezbollah attack in the Golan Heights.
Shekel Plummets, Airlines Suspend Flights As Israel Faces Backlash
The Israeli shekel dropped 1.2% following the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, signaling increased regional tensions and investor anxiety. This event prompted major airlines like United Airlines, Delta Airlines, and British Airways to suspend flights to Israel, reflecting fears of retaliatory attacks by Hezbollah and Hamas. The economic impact is notable with the shekel experiencing a significant three-day fall and bond yields rising. Amidst vows of vengeance from both Iran and Hamas, the potential for further destabilization remains high, affecting both regional security and economic stability.
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★ ISRAEL-HEZBOLLAH CRISIS
IDF Strike During Nasrallah Speech Kills Syrian Family
As Hassan Nasrallah’s pre-recorded video detailed Israeli actions against Lebanon, an IDF strike on Shamaa, southern Lebanon, killed a Syrian mother and her four children and injured five other Lebanese. Since the beginning of the war between Hezbollah and Israel, a total of 19 Syrian refugees have died in Lebanon, including 8 children. The Israeli army has not commented on the event yet. Abu Ali Express Israeli Channel commented that only DNA tests will confirm if those killed were Lebanese or Syrian, with identification hindered by the condition of the bodies. The Lebanese Ministry of Health confirmed the Syrians killed were displaced agricultural workers, and DNA tests will determine the exact number of casualties. The Israeli media stated that Hezbollah launched a barrage of rockets into northern Israel on Thursday in retaliation for an Israeli airstrike on Shamaa. The Iran-backed group claimed the attack supported Palestinians in Gaza and responded to the deaths caused by the Israeli raid. Sirens sounded in northern Israel, and the Iron Dome intercepted rockets over the western Galilee.
In his speech, Nasrallah asserted Israel has “crossed a red line” and must expect “rage and revenge on all the fronts supporting Gaza,” referencing Iran-backed groups. He denied responsibility for the Majdal Shams incident, stating their investigation absolved them. He emphasized that assassinations of senior officials do not hinder the “resistance,” citing Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and Hezbollah. Nasrallah confirmed that Fuad Shukr, in daily contact with him, wanted to die as a “martyr.” With Israel on high alert, shelters opened, and bases evacuated, the decision on the form of the response is now with the “field ranks” seeking a meaningful opportunity, Nasarallah concluded.
Unprecedented Suspension of Lebanon Flights for Fourth Day, Evacuation Immediately
For the fourth consecutive day, major airlines, including Middle East Airlines, Lufthansa, and Turkish Airlines, have suspended flights to Beirut due to escalating violence between Hezbollah and Israel, leaving millions stranded. The next available airport is in Amman, Jordan, as Syrian airports have been rendered inoperative following Israeli airstrikes. The security landscape in Lebanon is increasingly precarious, prompting urgent evacuation advisories from the Australian and U.S. governments. Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong has warned of the potential closure of Beirut Airport, advising all Australians to evacuate immediately. The U.S. State Department has also raised its travel warning for Lebanon to Level 4, urging U.S. citizens to leave southern Lebanon and border areas with Syria.
EU Commits 500 Million Euros To Support Lebanon Amid Regional Tensions
The European Commission has approved a financial support package of 500 million euros for Lebanon, marking the first installment of a total 1 billion euros pledged by President von der Leyen during his May visit to Beirut. This funding aims to assist Lebanon with necessary reforms, enhance the security sector and border management, boost economic activity, and support the country’s most vulnerable populations. The announcement aligns with the European Council’s resolutions from April 17-18, emphasizing the EU’s commitment to supporting Lebanon amidst its domestic challenges and regional tensions. The EU’s financial aid to Lebanon has totaled over 3 billion euros since 2011, reflecting ongoing support for the nation’s stability and development.
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★ YEMEN
Washington Deploys 12 Warships and 4,000 Troops to the Middle East
The United States has deployed 12 warships, including the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt, to the Gulf and eastern Mediterranean regions. This redeployment also includes more than 4,000 Marines and sailors, shifting from operations against the Houthis in Yemen. Israel has warned Hezbollah through intermediaries that any large-scale attack will lead to war, focusing on targeting combatants rather than infrastructure.
U.S. Imposes Sanctions on Houthi-Linked Network in Yemen
The United States has enacted sanctions targeting individuals, entities, and vessels linked to the Houthi movement in Yemen. Announced by the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), these sanctions aim to disrupt financial and logistical support for the Houthis’ military operations. Key entities include Guangzhou Tasneem Trading Company Limited in China and International Smart Digital Interface LLC in Oman, both implicated in facilitating the procurement and shipment of dual-use materials and weapon components used in attacks, notably against Saudi Aramco facilities.
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★ IRAQ
US Military Strikes Iraqi Militants Suspected Of Planning Drone Attack On Israel
The US military conducted an airstrike on Tuesday against Iraqi militants, reportedly preparing a drone attack on Israel. This operation, the first of its kind in six months, targeted Hashd ash-Shabi, a group implicated in recent attacks on US personnel in Iraq. The strike resulted in five fatalities, including a member of the Yemeni Houthis, known for their drone assaults on Israel and US forces since the Gaza conflict began on October 7. Additionally, Ahmed Reza Afshari, a drone specialist from the Iranian Quds Force, was injured during the attack.
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★ SYRIA
Iranian-Backed Militias Mobilize in Eastern Syria as US Forces Heighten Alert
Significant movements by Iranian-backed militias in Deir Ezzor’s Al-Mayadeen and Al-Bukamal deserts have prompted heightened alert from US bases. Supported by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, these militias have repositioned rocket launchers, triggering vigilance at US installations against potential missile or drone attacks. Recent reports indicate reduced activity at key militia headquarters in Al Bukamal, with top commanders absent and a significant meeting canceled. Commanders like “Hajj Askar ” are relocating to evade targeting. Additionally, Iranian militias halted a weapons shipment from Iraq to Syria due to increased drone surveillance, opting to return the shipment to storage facilities in Al-Qaim, Iraq. These actions reflect the complex interplay of military strategies in Syria’s contested regions.
Withdraw and Disengage: Assad Orders Forces from Golan Heights
Following the assassination of Hezbollah’s military commander Fouad Ali Shukr, the Assad regime has ordered its forces near the Golan Heights to refrain from using their positions for missile launches or movements toward the area. Pro-Iranian groups and Hezbollah-affiliated militias have also evacuated strategic positions around Damascus and Quneitra, adopting low profiles to evade potential Israeli airstrikes amid heightened regional tensions.
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★ TURKIYE
Turkiye Blocks NATO’s Cooperation with Israel Over Gaza Conflict
Turkiye has blocked NATO’s cooperation with Israel, citing the escalating conflict in Gaza. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan announced Turkiye will not support military cooperation until a “permanent cease-fire” is established. This decision condemns Israel’s actions, described by Erdoğan as severe human rights violations, and has heightened diplomatic tensions, revealing divergent stances within NATO on Middle East security. Israeli officials strongly criticized Turkiye’s position, highlighting alliance complexities.
Pro-Hamas Rally in Istanbul: Erdogan Condemns Haniyeh’s Assassination
Turkiye has condemned Israel for assassinating Ismail Haniyeh, a senior Hamas leader, calling it a severe setback to peace efforts. The Turkish Foreign Ministry described the killing as a “heinous crime” that undermines peace efforts. This incident heightened tensions, drawing widespread criticism from pro-Palestinian supporters. On July 31, 2024, a significant pro-Hamas demonstration in Istanbul saw thousands protesting Haniyeh’s assassination, burning Israeli flags, and expressing support for Gaza’s “resistance.” President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan condemned the killing, calling Haniyeh his “brother” and denouncing the act as “Zionist barbarity.” Erdoğan’s view of Hamas as a “liberation movement” contrasts sharply with the stance of Israel, the EU, and NATO allies, who classify Hamas as a terrorist organization.
Strategic Energy Alliance: Turkiye and Turkmenistan to Boost Gas Exports to 300 bcm
Turkiye and Turkmenistan plan to significantly expand their natural gas trade, targeting exports of 300 billion cubic meters (bcm). This initiative aims to diversify energy sources and export routes, with Turkmenistan reducing reliance on China and exploring new markets in Turkiye and potentially the EU. The agreement, established during a meeting between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Turkmen President Serdar Berdymukhammedov, includes developing new infrastructure and considering pipeline routes through Iran and the Trans-Caspian Pipeline project. This move aims to enhance energy security and economic ties, marking a shift in the regional energy landscape.
Turkiye and Gulf States Initiate Free Trade Negotiations for $2.4 Trillion Market
Turkiye and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have embarked on formal negotiations for a Free Trade Agreement (FTA), highlighted by a joint statement in Ankara. This initiative marks a significant effort to strengthen economic ties between Turkiye and the GCC member states, which include Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, and Bahrain. The discussions aim to reduce trade barriers, facilitate investment, and promote trade in goods and services. The potential result could be the establishment of one of the world’s largest free trade areas, with a combined market value of $2.4 trillion. This agreement is a crucial component of Turkiye’s broader strategy to enhance its economic relationships within the Gulf region and diversify its trade partnerships in the face of shifting alliances.
Natural Gas Prices Surge in Turkiye: Residential Rates Up 38%
Turkiye has implemented a substantial increase in natural gas prices, raising rates by 38% for residential consumers. This adjustment, executed by the state-owned Petroleum Pipeline Corporation (BOTAS), also includes a notable 50.8% rise for industrial usage. The price hike reflects Turkiye’s response to mounting economic pressures, including inflation and the impact of global energy market volatility.
The decision demonstrates Turkiye’s efforts to stabilize its energy sector amidst a challenging economic environment, characterized by high inflation and currency instability. This move is part of a broader strategy to ensure the sustainability of natural gas supplies while addressing the rising costs associated with procurement and distribution in a fluctuating global market.
Turkiye Refutes Claims of Russian Mediated Rapprochement Draft with Syria
Turkiye has officially denied reports claiming it received a rapprochement draft from Russia concerning relations with the Syrian regime. The Turkish Presidency’s Anti-Disinformation Center labeled these allegations as “baseless” and emphasized the necessity to rely on official statements rather than media speculations. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan outlined ongoing normalization with Syria, focusing on refugee return, combating terrorism, and potential military withdrawal. No meeting between President Erdogan and Assad is scheduled. Opposition leader Ilhan Ozgil criticized President Erdogan’s eagerness to meet the reluctant Bashar al-Assad, highlighting the paradox of Turkiye pushing for dialogue while controlling Syrian territory, and emphasized the need for EU involvement in resolving refugee issues and facilitating peace in Syria.
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★ THE GULF
ASEAN and GCC Push to Reduce U.S. Dollar Dependence
ASEAN and GCC countries are advancing an economic initiative to increase the use of local currencies for cross-border transactions, reducing dependency on the U.S. dollar. Supported by China, this partnership aims to enhance economic sovereignty, resilience against U.S. sanctions, and mitigate risks tied to the dollar’s global dominance. Reflecting a broader trend seen with BRICS nations, this move highlights a shift towards a multipolar economic order. The alignment of ASEAN and GCC nations could significantly impact the global financial system and U.S. economic influence.
Saudi Arabia Warns of Potential European Debt Liquidation Over G7 Sanctions on Russia
Saudi Arabia has issued a veiled warning that it may liquidate its holdings of European debt if the G7 moves forward with seizing around $300 billion in frozen Russian assets. This potential action reflects Riyadh’s broader concerns about the use of economic sanctions and asset seizures, especially if such measures might one day target Gulf states. The situation highlights the geopolitical complexities and the strategic considerations at play in international finance and diplomacy.
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Daily Recap: August 1, 2024
IRAN: Iran is nearing nuclear weapon capability, prompting U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken to call for a ceasefire in Gaza following the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has ordered a retaliatory strike against Israel, exacerbating regional tensions.
LEBANON: Israel eliminated Hezbollah’s second-in-command Fuad Shukr in a precision strike, leading to Hezbollah’s vow of revenge and escalating security concerns. Major airlines have suspended flights to Beirut, impacting international travel and trade.
IRAQ: U.S. forces conducted a defensive airstrike in Musayib, Iraq, killing four militants from the Iran-aligned Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) and injuring four others. This followed drone attacks on U.S. bases in Erbil and Anbar provinces by Iraqi militias, which have now ended their ceasefire with U.S. forces and vowed retaliation.
SYRIA: Ukrainian special forces targeted a Russian base at Kuweires airbase, destroying significant military equipment. This attack followed a meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Bashar al-Assad, with Assad deflecting responsibility for the Hezbollah missile misfire that killed 12 children in Majdal Shams.
EGYPT: Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty met Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian in Tehran to normalize relations and explore cooperation. Egypt condemned Israel’s assassination policies, warning of potential regional conflict and calling for international intervention. The IMF’s release of $820 million to Egypt reflects economic improvements, though further reforms are necessary.
YEMEN: The Houthi militia pledged support for Iranian retaliation against Israel, intensifying attacks on Red Sea commercial vessels and disrupting maritime trade. The U.S. Treasury sanctioned entities involved in Houthi weapons procurement, while Saudi Arabia’s “Masam” project destroyed an underwater Houthi missile near Bab al-Mandab.
The Gulf: Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani held talks with UK, Egyptian, and U.S. officials regarding Haniyeh’s assassination. Saudi Arabia’s GDP contracted for the fourth consecutive quarter due to an 8.5% decline in the oil sector amid OPEC+ production cuts. In contrast, Qatar reported a budget surplus for Q2 2024, driven by strong public revenue and controlled expenditure.
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📌 In case you missed it,
📰 THE EARLY PHOENIX July 31, 2024
📰 Iran’s Mullah Regime Controls Middle East National Security
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