Welcome to the Early Phoenix Middle East Reports, compiled by ACLS Research Team and Editor Rania Kisar. Share your opinion analysis with us and let your voice be heard. Email comments and suggestions to [email protected] or tweet @levantstudies
★ IRAN
1.FBI Investigates Alleged Hacking of Trump Campaign Emails by Iranian Group
The FBI has launched an investigation into the alleged hacking of Trump campaign emails, following a leak of internal documents. Microsoft identified an Iran-backed group as the likely culprit, noting the use of spear phishing to target a high-ranking official. U.S. agencies have yet to officially attribute the hack to Iran, despite intelligence reports indicating Tehran’s efforts to influence the U.S. election. The Trump campaign accused Iran of attempting to interfere with the 2024 election, while Iran’s Foreign Ministry dismissed the allegations as “malicious.”
2.Iran to Supply Russia with Short-Range Ballistic Missiles
Intelligence sources have revealed that Iran is preparing to deliver Fath-360 short-range ballistic missiles to Russia, marking a significant escalation in Tehran’s military support for Moscow’s war in Ukraine. Russian military personnel are currently in Iran receiving training on the Fath-360 system, which launches missiles with a range of 120 kilometers and a 150 kg warhead. The U.S. and NATO allies have warned of severe repercussions if Iran proceeds with the transfer. While Iran has denied selling missiles for the Ukraine conflict, it has a history of military cooperation with Russia, including the sale of drones. The missile deliveries, if confirmed, would put further pressure on Ukraine’s air defenses and deepen the military ties between Iran and Russia.
3.China Backs Iran, Condemns Assassination as Threat to Regional Stability
China’s Foreign Ministry confirmed support for Iran, emphasizing sovereignty, security, and dignity in a recent statement. Minister Wang Yi, in conversation with Iranian Charge d’Affaires Ali Bagheri Kani, condemned the assassination, highlighting its violation of Iran’s sovereignty and regional stability threats. This alignment signals China’s strategic stance amidst rising tensions after the deaths of Hamas leader Haniyeh and Hezbollah commander Fouad Shukr in Beirut. In response, Israel has heightened its security readiness, anticipating possible retaliatory actions from Iran and Lebanese Hezbollah.
4.Iran Strengthens Naval and Electronic Warfare Capabilities
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has announced a significant upgrade to its naval forces, including the addition of advanced cruise missiles with new specifications, highly explosive warheads, and radar-evading capabilities. The IRGC has also enhanced its radar systems and electronic warfare capabilities, alongside acquiring the latest military equipment to counter maritime threats.
5.Iran’s Military Power Surges, Houthis Strengthen Under Biden Administration
During the Trump administration, Iran’s military capabilities grew by 5-10%, and the Houthis’ capabilities increased by 15-20%. Under the Biden administration, Iran’s capabilities surged by 30-40%, while the Houthis’ grew significantly by 70-80%. The evidence indicates that Iran’s military growth during the Trump administration was constrained, with a modest increase of 5-10%, largely due to severe sanctions that led to a nearly 28% cut in overall defense spending and a 17% reduction for the IRGC and Quds Force. These economic pressures significantly limited Iran’s ability to support proxies like the Houthis. In contrast, under the Biden administration, Iran’s military capabilities expanded by 30-40%, with the Houthis’ growing by 70-80%, fueled by increased Iranian support and enhanced operational improvements. This stark contrast highlights the escalating threat posed by Iran and the Houthis in the region, emphasizing the need for heightened international vigilance to address these growing security challenges.
6.Iranian Arms Shipments to Houthis Highlighted in DIA Report
The Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) has released a report titled “Seized At Sea: Iranian Weapons Smuggled to the Houthis,” which outlines the capture of weapons bound for Yemen’s Houthi rebels, underscoring their Iranian origins. The report includes visual evidence confirming that the seized arms, intercepted on January 11 and 28, match known Iranian systems. This documentation supports allegations of Iran’s continued involvement in arming the Houthis, facilitating numerous attacks on commercial shipping across the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden since 2015. Over 20 smuggling attempts by Iran have been thwarted, yielding ballistic and cruise missiles, anti-tank guided missiles, and drones. The DIA’s findings aim to elevate awareness about Iran’s destabilizing actions in the region, emphasizing significant implications for U.S. defense and national security interests.
7.Iran’s Threat Prompts IDF to Recall Soldiers from Georgia, Azerbaijan
In response to escalating threats from Iran, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have ordered all off-duty soldiers in Georgia and Azerbaijan to return to Israel immediately. This directive follows the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, which Iran and Hamas attribute to Israeli involvement. With heightened concerns of Iranian retaliatory strikes, particularly in regions adjacent to Iran like Azerbaijan, the IDF is taking proactive measures to safeguard Israeli interests and ensure the security of its personnel in these vulnerable locations.
8.Iranian President Advocates for JCPOA Revival Amid Regional Tensions
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, in a phone conversation with European Council President Charles Michel, expressed optimism about reviving the JCPOA, emphasizing the need for mutual confidence and obligations fulfillment. He indicated that meeting these conditions could open doors to further cooperation beyond the nuclear agreement.
9.Zarif Resigns After 11 Days Over Cabinet Appointment Disputes
Mohammad Javad Zarif resigned from his position as Vice President for Strategic Affairs in Iran due to his dissatisfaction with the cabinet selection process overseen by newly elected President Masoud Pezeshkian. Zarif was particularly disheartened that the new cabinet did not reflect the inclusive reforms he had envisioned, specifically the underrepresentation of women, youth, and ethnic minorities. Additionally, he expressed frustration that many of his recommended candidates, who were chosen by expert committees, were not selected, indicating a divergence from the promised reforms and a continuation of conservative dominance in the cabinet. This situation left him feeling that he could not effectively fulfill his role or achieve the reforms he had pledged to support, leading to his decision to step down and return to academia.
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