By: Catherine Perez-Shakdam and Rania Kisar American Center for Levant Studies ACLS , July 23, 2024.
Israel’s National Security
will remain precarious until decisive American policy decisions are made preserving its allies in the Middle East with a clear policy, one will either deter future Iranian ending this coordinated war against Israel or usher in a new regional era. As the world watches the upcoming US elections, Iran continues to exploit the current administration’s flawed weakness to inflate its claimed strategic advantages. The stability of the entire region depands on an American policy that would reshape the current landscape.
IRGC’s Hand in Qat-Addicts’ Tel Aviv Attack
Irrefutable evidence conclusively demonstrates the IRGC’s direct involvement in the July 19 deadly attacks on Tel Aviv. The advanced technology and strategic precision, starkly exposes the improbability of the Qat-addict Houthis, who were a rag-tag army with primitive military resources, independently carrying out such a sophisticated operation.
IRGC commanders and advisers have directly influenced the Houthis’ military capabilities, deploying missile and drone trainers , as well as operators in Yemen to provide tactical intelligence support , an integral part of carrying out such recent Tel Aviv attacks.
Iran Launched a New Coordinated Attack Strategy
Initially deemed a lucky strike, sources later revealed it was a calculated and coordinated tactic by Iran, involving multiple attacks with weapons previously used in Iranian-led Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
The five air targets launched towards Tel Aviv included the Typhoon and the Shahed-136, as well as the first use of the enhanced Samad-3 drone, which was also joined by another drone attack coming from Iraq. The Samad-3 traveled 2,600 km from Yemen over the Red Sea, reaching Eritrea, before flying north over Sudan and Egypt and approaching Tel Aviv from the Mediterranean Sea at a low altitude, carrying a minimal warhead. These weapons have been further developed with advanced GPS and GNSS guidance systems, enabling long-distance missions and evading detection.
Assessing Israeli Response: Tactical Success vs. Strategic Effectiveness
The Iranian -backed Houthi attacks continued after the Israeli airstrikes on the port of Hodeidah on July 22 , indicating that the strategic effectiveness of the military operation carried out by the Israeli Air Force, despite the massive military capabilities in which twelve advanced aircraft participated, including F-15s, F-16s and F-35s, targeted military infrastructure and oil facilities and led to the killing of more than six people and the injury of hundreds. Satellite images confirmed the statements of the Israeli Defense Minister about the fires that were seen from all over the Middle East and continued for two days , the extensive damage in which the fires devoured the fuel storage area, destroyed five cranes, and reduced the fuel storage capacity in the port from 150,000 to 50,000 tons.
Iran’s strategy of plausible deniability, which has used these groups that contribute to regional destabilization, has also continued to be effective , with the Lebanese Hezbollah militia intensifying military attacks against Israel and the Southern Hezbollah , known as the Houthis, resuming their offensive from Yemen . Hassan Nasrallah condemned the Israeli response to Yemen, affirming the unity of the resistance axes and threatening a collective response, while his media outlets published footage of his increased readiness, mobilization of his fighters, and strengthening of his positions, in addition to launching retaliatory attacks and warning messages to Israel of the consequences of escalation.
IDF spokesperson Hagari remarked, “The threat of the drones launched by Hezbollah at northern Israel is an existential threat, and is greater than the Houthis’ attempts to launch drones at Israel.” He indicated that assessments would be conducted to understand the sequence of events and to formulate the required defensive and offensive responses.
Tehran Leverages U.S. Warnings, Threatens Regional Stability
On July 19, 2024, the same day of the strike on Tel Aviv, both Blinken and Sullivan issued clear warnings to Israel and its allies, stating that Iran is only one to two weeks away from sufficient fissile material for a nuclear weapon. Previous White House announcements accused the Islamic Republic of significant involvement in recent attacks by Yemen’s Houthi rebels on commercial ships in the Red Sea, asserting that Tehran provided drones, missiles, and tactical intelligence to the Houthis. Vice Admiral Brad Cooper, deputy commander of U.S. Central Command, stated that while they are aware of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) actively advising and resupplying the Houthis in Yemen with target information, no policy decision has been made to counter these actions.
Tehran has thus exploited these American warnings, condemning the Israeli airstrikes as a dangerous adventure that could ignite a regional war. The Iranian regime has issued a direct warning of dire consequences, exploiting claims of its imminent nuclear capability and the recent failure of Israeli air defenses to bolster its hegemony and strategy in the region .
While Tel Aviv has announced an update to its list of targets in Yemen and an increase in phased strikes, the success and effectiveness of any security measures Israel will take remains questionable without a new US response policy towards Iran.
FAQs
What evidence points to the IRGC’s involvement in the July 19 attacks?
The use of advanced technology and strategic precision in the attacks, along with the known presence of IRGC forces in Yemen, provides irrefutable evidence of their involvement.
How have the Houthis’ capabilities evolved over time?
The Houthis have received significant support from the IRGC, including advanced weaponry and strategic guidance, enhancing their military capabilities dramatically.
What was the strategic importance of the Samad-3 drone in the attacks?
The Samad-3 drone’s long-distance flight path and advanced guidance systems enabled it to evade detection and deliver a targeted strike, showcasing the sophistication of the operation.
How did Israel respond to the July 19 attacks?
Israel launched airstrikes on Hodeidah’s port, targeting military infrastructure and oil refining facilities, demonstrating its formidable military capability.
What are the broader geopolitical implications of these events?
The involvement of the IRGC and the strategic responses from Israel and the US highlight the interconnected nature of regional conflicts and the need for a comprehensive international approach.
What are the potential future developments in this conflict?
The potential for further escalation remains high, with the involvement of multiple regional and global powers necessitating careful strategic planning and coordination.
#Middle East #International Relations #Foreign Policy
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